Implications of Asia’s Rise to Global Status

Abstract

A fundamental and unprecedented transition is underway. For the first time in the past 500 years, the center of world politics is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific. This transition is a consequence of the rise of productivity among the largest societies in the developing word relative to that of today’s developed leaders. These patterns are reinforced in unexpected ways by fertility and migration trends. As this continental shift takes place, the established norms of the international system will be challenged. The uncharacteristic pattern of this transition is that rich, productive societies will be surpassed by poorer, less productive nations at the individual level. In the past, fundamental transitions of this magnitude have been associated with severe conflict. Will history repeat itself? What can be done? This chapter lays out some of the major anticipated events, provides a formal structure that accounts for potential conflict and cooperation centering on the rising Asian nations, and assesses the long-term implications of these new interactions.