Abstract
This analysis is an exercise in predicting the future likelihood of war breaking out during major transitions that might occur in the global political system. A useful theory of the causes of war should be able to predict the conditions under which war is highly likely or unlikely. It should also be able to identify the factors that put pairs of states or systems at risk for war. The two major transition theories that are the focus of this book—power transition and long cycle theory—both specify certain shifts in capability and in global leadership as conditions that increase the likelihood of war. The theory employed in this analysis does not see either of those conditions as the primary factors bringing about war. Instead, it sees wars as arising mainly out of certain kinds of issues and how they are handled. It examines how war grows out of the foreign policy behavior and interactions of states. This steps-to-war approach seeks to identify the steps states take that increase the probability of war and explain why they take them.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ardrey, Robert (1966) The Territorial Imperative. New York: Atheneum.
Bijian, Zheng (2005) “China’s “Peaceful Rise” to Great Power Status.” Foreign Affairs 84 (5): 18–24.
Boulding, Kenneth (1962) Conflict and Defense: A General Theory. New York: Harper and Row.
Bremer, Stuart A. and Thomas R. Cusack, eds. (1995) The Process of War: Advancing the Scientific Study of War. Amsterdam: Gordon and Breach.
Carter, Ashton B. (2006) “America’s New Strategic Partner?” Foreign Affairs 85 (4): 33–44.
Cashman, Greg and Leonard C. Robinson (2007) An Introduction to the Causes of War: Patterns of Interstate Conflict from World War I to Iraq. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
Chan, Steve (2007) China, the U.S. and the Power Transition Theory: A Critique. New York: Routledge.
Colaresi, Michael P. and William R. Thompson (2005) “Alliances, Arms Buildups and Recurrent Conflict: Testing a Steps-to-War Model.” Journal of Politics 67 (May): 345–364.
DiCicco, Jonathan M. and Jack S. Levy (1999) “Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (6): 675–704.
Dixon, W.J. (1993) “Democracy and the Management of International Conflict.”Journal of Conflict Resolution 37: 42–68.
Dixon, W.J., and P.D. Senese (2002) “Democracy, Disputes, and Negotiated Settlements.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46: 547–571.
Doran, Charles F. (1971) The Politics of Assimilation: Hegemony and Its Aftermath. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
— (1989) “Systemic Disequilibrium, Foreign Policy Role, and the Power Cycle.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 33 (September): 371–401.
— (1991) Systems in Crisis: New Imperative of High Politics at Century’s End. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Doran, Charles F. and Wes Parsons (1980) “War and the Cycle of Relative Power.” American Political Science Review 74: 947–65.
Fearon, James D. (1995) “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49 (3): 379–414.
Friedberg, Aaron (1988) The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Geller, Daniel S. (1992) “Capability Concentration, Power Transition, and War.” International Interactions 17 (3): 269–284.
Gibler, Douglas M. (2000) “Alliances: Why Some Cause War and Why Others Cause Peace,” in John Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 145–164.
(2007) “Bordering on Peace: Democracy, Territorial Issues, and Conflict.” International Studies Quarterly 51 (September): 509–532
Gilpin, Robert (1981) War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Glosny, Michael A. (2004) “Strangulations from the Sea: A PRC Submarine Blockade of Taiwan.” International Security 28 (4): 125–160.
Harris, J. Paul (2003) “Great Britain,” in Richard F. Hamilton and Holger H. Herwig, eds., The Origins of World War I. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 266–299.
Henehan, Marie T. and John A. Vasquez (2006) “The Changing Probability ofWar, 1816–1992,” in Raimo Vayrynen, ed., The Waning of Major War. London: Routledge, 280–299.
Hensel, Paul R. (1996) “Charting a Course to Conflict: Territorial Issues and Interstate Conflict, 816–992.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (1): 43–73.
— (2000) “Territory: Theory and Evidence on Geography and Conflict,” in John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 57–84.
Huth, Paul K. (1996) Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Jisi, Wang (2005) “China’s Search for Stability with America.” Foreign Affairs 84 (5): 39–49.
Johnston, Alistair I. (1996) “Cultural Realism and Strategy in Maoist China,” in Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of National Security. New York: Columbia University Press, 216–268.
Kennedy, Paul (1987) The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. New York: Random House.
Keohane, Robert O. (1984) After Hegemony. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kugler, Jacek (2006) “The Asian Ascent: Opportunity for Peace or Precondition for War?” International Studies Perspectives 7 (1): 36–42.
Kugler, Jacek and Douglas Lemke, eds. (1996) Parity and War: A Critical Reevaluation of the War Ledger. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Kupchan, Charles A. (2002) The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and Geopolitics of the Twenty-First Century. New York: Knopf.
Lake, David A. (2006) “American Hegemony and the Future of East-West Relations.” International Studies Perspectives 7 (1): 23–30.
Lemke, Douglas (2002) Regions of War and Peace. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Levy, Jack S. (2006) “Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China.” Revision of a paper written for the conference on The Rise of China: Theory and Practice, Peking University, January (May revision).
— (2008) “Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China,” in Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng, eds., China Rising: Theoretical and Policy Perspectives. Ithaca, New York, NY: Cornell University Press, 11–33.
Mahbubani, Kishorne (2005) “Understanding China.” Foreign Affairs 84 (5): 49–60.
Mansbach, Richard W. and John A. Vasquez (1981) In Search of Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. New York: Columbia University Press.
Mead, Margaret (1940) “Warfare Is Only an Invention—Not a Biological Necessity.” Asia 40 (8): 402–405.
Mearsheimer, John J. (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton.
(2005) “Clash of Titans” (an exchange with Zbigniew Brzezinski). Foreign Policy 146 (January/February): 46–49.
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin and Brandon Prins (1999) “Beyond Territorial Contiguity: Issues at Stake in Democratic Militarized Interstate Disputes.” International Studies Quarterly 43: 169–183.
Modelski, George (1978) “The Long Cycle of Global Politics and the Nation-State.” Comparative Studies in Society and History 20 (April): 214–235.
Modelski, George and Patrick M. Morgan (1985) “Understanding Global War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 29: 391–417.
Modelski, George and William R. Thompson (1989) “Long Cycles and Global War,” in Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman, 23–54.
— (1996) Leading Sectors and World Power: The Coevolution of Global Economics and Politics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
Mohan, C. Raja (2006) “India and the Balance of Power.” Foreign Affairs 85 (4): 17–32
Morgenthau, Hans J. (1960) Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. 3rd edition. New York: Knopf.
Nayar, Baldev Raj and T.V. Paul (2003) India in the World Order: Searching for Major Power Status. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
O’Hanlon, Michael (2000) “Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan.” International Security 25 (2): 51–86.
Organski, A.F.K. (1958) World Politics. New York: Knopf.
Organski, A.F.K. and Jacek Kugler (1980) The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Rasler, Karen and William R. Thompson (2000) “Explaining Rivalry Escalation to War: Space, Position, and Contiguity in the Major Power Subsystem.” International Studies Quarterly 44: 503–530.
Raymond, Gregory A. (1994) “Democracies, Disputes, and Third Party Intermediaries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (1): 24–42.
Rosecrance, Richard N. (1986) The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World. New York: Basic Books.
Russett, Bruce M. (1985) “The Mysterious Case of Vanishing Hegemony: Or, Is Mark Twain Really Dead.” International Organization 39 (2): 207–232.
Russett, Bruce M., John R. Oneal, and David R. Davis (1998) “The Third Leg of the Kantian Tripod For Peace: International Organizations and Militarized Disputes.” International Organization 52 (3): 441–467.
Sample, Susan G. (1998) “Military Buildups, War, and Realpolitik: A Multivariate Model.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42: 156–175.
—(2000) “Military Buildups: Arming and War,” in John Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 165–195.
Senese, Paul D. (1996) “Geographic Proximity and Issue Salience: Their Effects on the Escalation of Militarized Interstate Conflict.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 15: 133–161.
Senese, Paul D. and John Vasquez (2008) The Steps to War: An Empirical Study. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Shaw R. Paul and Yuwa Wong (1989) Genetic Seeds of Warfare: Evolution, Nationalism, and Patriotism. Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman.
Simmons, Beth A. (1999) “See You in ‘Court’? The Appeal to Quasi-Judicial Legal Processes in the Settlement of Territorial Disputes,” in Paul F. Diehl, ed., A Road Map to War: Territorial Dimensions of International Conflict. Nashville, TE: Vanderbilt University Press, 205–237.
Tammen, Ronald L, Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Allan Stam III, Carole Alsharabati, Mark A. Abdollahian, Brian Efird, and A.F.K. Organski (2000) Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. New York: Chatham House.
Thompson, William R. (1988) On Global War: Historical-Structural Approaches to World Politics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
— (1992) “Dehio, Long Cycles and the Geohistorical Contexts of Structural Transition.” World Politics 45 (October): 127–152.
Thompson, William R. (2003) “A Streetcar Named Sarajevo: Catalysts, Multiple Causation Chains, and Rivalry Structures.” International Studies Quarterly 47 (September): 453–474.
Valeriano, Brandon. (2003) The Steps to Rivalry: Power Politics and Rivalry Formation, Doctoral Dissertation, Vanderbilt University, August 2003.
Vasquez, John A. (1987) “The Steps to War: Toward a Scientific Explanation of Correlates of War Findings.” World Politics 40:108–145.
— (1993) The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
— (1996a) “The Causes of the Second World War in Europe: A New Scientific Explanation.” International Political Science Review 17 (April): 161–178
— (1996b) “Distinguishing Rivals That Go to War from Those That Do Not: A Quantitative Comparative Case Study of the Two Paths to War.” International Studies Quarterly 40 (December): 531–558
— (1996c) “When Are Power Transitions Dangerous? The Contribution of the Power Transition Thesis to International Relations Theory,” in Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, eds., Parity and War: A Critical Reevaluation of the War Ledger. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 35–56
Vasquez, John A. and Brandon Valeriano (2004) “A Classification of Interstate War.” Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Montreal, March 20.
—(2008) “Territory as a Source of Conflict and a Road to Peace.” In Jacob Bercovitch, Victor Kremenyuk, and I. William Zartman, eds., The Handbook on Conflict Resolution. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 193–209.
Wallensteen, Peter (1981) “Incompatibility, Confrontation, and War: Four Models and Three Historical Systems, 1816–1976.” Journal of Peace Research 18: 57–90.
Wayman, Frank Whelon (1996) “Power Shifts and the Onset of War,” in Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, eds., Parity and War. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 145–162.
Whiting, Alan S. (1991) “The U.S.-China War in Korea,” in Alexander L. George, ed., Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 103–125.
Editor information
Copyright information
© 2009 William R. Thompson
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Vasquez, J.A. (2009). Whether and How Global Leadership Transitions Will Result in War: Some Long-Term Predictions from the Steps-to-War Explanation. In: Thompson, W.R. (eds) Systemic Transitions. The Evolutionary Processes in World Politics series. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230618381_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230618381_7
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, New York
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-37543-1
Online ISBN: 978-0-230-61838-1
eBook Packages: Palgrave Political & Intern. Studies CollectionPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)