Abstract
The China-Taiwan-US relationship may for analytical purposes be conceived as a “strategic triangle”1: It is “triangular” in the sense that each bilateral relationship is contingent on relations with the third power; it is “strategic” in its prioritization of the security dimension; indeed, one of its most striking features has been the relative irrelevance of changing economic variables in the strategic balance. In this respect it superficially resembles the Great Strategic Triangle (GST) between the United States, People’s Republic of China (PRC), and USSR. But what we might call the Taiwan minitriangle is otherwise quite distinctive—the imbalance of power among the three actors being only the most obvious. At least, since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been the consistent pivot of this triangle, on the one hand due to its disproportionate economic and strategic weight, on the other because of the (relatively) disinterested “swing” role it has played in determining the relationship between the other two.2 Washington has throughout the postwar period consistently been the principal guarantor of Taiwan’s national security, and during certain crucial periods the United States has also interceded on behalf of China’s national security (while at many other times it has been the main threat to PRC security). These asymmetrical interdependencies—Taipei’s need for US support to retain its independent existence, Beijing’s need for tacit US support to be able to pressure Taiwan, Washington’s need for a balance between the two in order to retain its advantageous pivot position—have locked the three together in a complex, ambivalent embrace.
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Notes
On triangular analysis, see inter alia, L. Dittmer, “The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis,” World Politics, vol. 33, no. 4 (1981), pp. 485–516:
for its application to the China-Taiwan issue, see L. Dittmer, “Policy Implications of Cross-Strait Relations for the United States.” Paper presented at Cross-Straits Relations and Policy Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region, Conference sponsored by Institute for National Policy Research, International Convention Center, Taipei, March 27–29, 1995
Yu-Shan Wu, “Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations,” Issues & Studies, vol. 32, no. 10 (December 1996), pp. 26–52
and Yu-Shan Wu, “From Romantic Triangle to Marriage?: Washington-BeijingTaipei Relations in Historical Comparison,” Issues & Studies, vol. 41, no. 1 (March 2005), pp. 113–161.
See, inter alia, Stephane Corcuff, ed., Memories of the Future: National Identity Issues and the Search for a New Taiwan (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2002)
Alan Wachman, Taiwan: National Identity and Democratization (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1997); and the special issue of Asian Survey, “Taiwan’s Search for National Identity,” vol. 44, no. 4 (July-August 2004).
Alan D. Romberg, Rein In at the Brink of the Precipice: American Policy toward Taiwan and US-PRC Relations (Washington, DC: Henry L. Stimson Center, 2003), pp. 111–112.
Ramon H. Myers and Jialin Zhang, The Struggle Across the Taiwan Strait: The Divided China Problem (Stanford, CA: Hoover Inst. Press, 2006), pp. 89–90.
As quoted in Michael D. Swaine, “Trouble in Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 83, no. 2 (March/April 2004), pp. 39–49.
Ching Cheong, “Why China Is Going Easy on Taiwan for Now,” Straits Times (Singapore), August 18, 2000
as cited in Sheng Lijun, China and Taiwan: Cross-Strait Relations under Chen Shui-bian (New York: Zed Books, 2002), as amplified by conversations with policy intellectuals in Beijing.
See Jing Huang (with Larry X. Li), Inseparable Separation: A Study in China-Taiwan Relations (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2007), Chapter 5.
“China, US More than Stakeholders but Constructive Partners: Chinese Foreign Ministry” Xinhua, April 22, 2006, as cited in Alan D. Romberg, “The Taiwan Tangle,” China Leadership Monitor, vol. 18, accessed October 30, 2006.
Su Chi, Brinkmanship: From Two-States Theory to One-Country-on-Each-Side (Taipei: Commonwealth Publishing Group, 2003), p. 249, as cited in Myers and Zhang, The Struggle Across the Taiwan Strait, p. 83.
See Yu-Shan Wu, “Taiwan’s Domestic Politics and Cross-Strait Relations,” The China Journal, vol. 53 (January 2005), pp. 35–60.
See Guoguang Wu, “Passions, Politics and Politicians: Beijing between Taipei and Washington,” The Pacific Review, vol. 17, no. 2 (June 2004), pp. 179–198.
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© 2008 Peter C. Y. Chow
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Dittmer, L. (2008). Triangular Diplomacy Amid Leadership Transition. In: Chow, P.C.Y. (eds) The “One China” Dilemma. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230611931_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230611931_10
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