Skip to main content
  • 88 Accesses

Abstract

In 2004–2007, there has been a simultaneous business expansion in Europe, the United States, Japan, and China. The world’s four leading economic areas, which account for about 70 percent of global GDP, have not had a similar, simultaneous business expansion since 1972. The International Monetary Fund forecast that average GDP growth in these four states in the two-year period of 2004–2006 would be as follows: Europe (3.4%), United States (2.9%), Japan (2.7%), and China (9.7%).1

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

  1. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (Washington, DC: IMF, April 2006), p. 2.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Patrick, H., “The Japanese Economy: Sustained Recovery and Growth Not Yet Achieved,” ms., (New York: Columbia University Center for Japanese Economy and Business, August 2004).

    Google Scholar 

  3. For the perspective of the Carter Administration’s chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors on inflation, see C. Schultze, Memos to the President (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1992), pp. 142–152.

    Google Scholar 

  4. For a view supporting Greenspan, see, A. Sinai, “Preemption, Changing Structure, and U.S. Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review 94, no. 2, May 2004, pp. 49–52. For a more critical perspective, see, L. Summers, “America Overdrawn,” Foreign Policy, no. 143, July/August 2004, pp. 46–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Auerbach, A., and M. Obstfeld, “Monetary and Fiscal Remedies for Deflation,” American Economic Review 94, no. 2, May 2004, pp. 71–79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. For discussion of these long-term issues, see, L. Schoppa, “Japan’s Demographic Challenge,” Japan Economic Currents, no. 29, February 2003, pp. 1–8; and M. Porter and M. Sakikibara, “Competition in Japan,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, no. 1, Winter 2004, pp. 27–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Patrick, H., “Japan’s Economy: Finally Finding Its Way to Full Employment and Sustained Growth,” (New York: Columbia Center on Japanese Economy and Business, August 2006), p. 2.

    Google Scholar 

  8. There are some who see China’s statistics as overstated. Estimates of the overstatement range from 1–3 percent in GDP figures. For a discussion of growth accounting in China, see, E. Borensztein and J. Ostry, “Accounting for China’s Growth Performance,” American Economic Review 86, no. 2, May 1996, pp. 224–228.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Heytens, P., and H. Zebregs, “How Fast Can China Grow?” in W. Tseng and M. Rodlauer, eds., China: Competing in the Global Economy (Washington, DC: IMF, 2003); and

    Google Scholar 

  10. A. Young, “Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People’s Republic of China during the Reform Period,” NBER Working Paper no. 7856 (Cambridge, MA: NBER, 2000).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  11. For a discussion of “improved overall efficiency” or total factor productivity, see, S. Mathis and J. Koscianski, Microeconomic Theory: An Integrated Approach (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2002), p. 214.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Bremmer, B., and D. Roberts, “How Beijing Is Keeping Banks at Bay,” Business Week, October 2, 2006, p. 42.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Bhagwati, J., and P. Desai, India: Planning for Industrialization (London: Oxford University Press, 1970).

    Google Scholar 

  14. For an overview of these changes, see, A. Ayres and P. Oldenberg, eds., India Briefing: Quickening the Pace of Change (Armonk, NY: East Gate, 2002).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Denoon, D., Devaluation under Pressure: India, Indonesia and Ghana (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986), pp. 25–86.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Ahluwalia, M., “Economic Reforms in India Since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 16, no. 3, Summer 2002, pp. 67–88.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. For background on this pattern, see A. Kholi, “Politics of Economic Liberalization in India,” World Development 17, no. 3, 1989, pp. 305–328.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Rodrik, D., and A. Subramaniam, “From Hindu Growth to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of India’s Growth Transition,” IMF Working Papers, March 2004, p. 31.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  19. Sinha, A., The Regional Roots of Development Politics in India: A Divided Leviathan (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2005).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Koo, B. H., “The Korean Economy: Structural Adjustment for Future Growth,” in C.S. Lee, ed., Korea Briefing 1990 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991), p. 60.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Sachwald, F., “FDI and the Economic Status of Korea: The Hub Strategy in Perspective,” Confontation and Innovation on the Korean Peninsula (Washington, DC: Korea Economic Institute, 2003), pp. 85–95.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Kim, C. S., “Race against Time: Millions of Koreans Wait to Meet Separated Family Members,” Korea Society Quarterly 4, no. 1, 2003, pp. 15–19.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Grossman, G., and E. Helpman, “Endogenous Innovation in the Theory of Growth,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 8, 1994, pp. 23–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Maxfield, S., and B. Schneider, eds., Business and the State in Developing Countries (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Kurtz, M., “Asia Watch: Taiwan” (Hong Kong: Bear Stearns, June 7, 2006), pp. 3–5.

    Google Scholar 

  26. See, A. Schwarz, Indonesia: The 2004 Election and Beyond (Singapore: Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, 2004) for an overview of the presidential and legislative election process and its implications.

    Google Scholar 

  27. See, World Bank, Indonesia: Selected Issues in a New Era, Report no. 25437-IND, (Washington, DC: IBRD, February 14, 2003) for a summary of the debt, taxation, and net investment issues.

    Google Scholar 

  28. World Bank, Vietnam: Delivering on Its Promises (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2002).

    Google Scholar 

  29. For an overview of ASEAN’s recent macroeconomic performance and resulting credit assessments, see, D. Hanna, ed., Citigroup Asia Economics Weekly, July 15, 2004, pp. 3–27.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Copyright information

© 2007 David B.H. Denoon

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Denoon, D.B.H. (2007). Is the Current Recovery Sustainable?. In: The Economic and Strategic Rise of China and India. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230606869_3

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics