Abstract
While stability is a property of the international system as a whole, system-level effects result from the combined actions of the states that constitute it. System stability indicates that states are not going to war against each other as often as in other systems and that they are not joining existing conflicts as often as they might Wars and conflicts often arise in the context of balancing, as states try to enhance their power while blocking other states’ power. States may also join conflicts because they are trying to balance the possible winner, prolonging the war. The relatively low intensity of conflicts in the unipolar era suggests that when states do join conflicts, it is to bandwagon with the likely winner and to share in its gains. This chapter develops and evaluates a hypothesis that states are more likely to bandwagon with the unipolar power than to balance against it.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Chapter 4
Randall Schweller, Deadly Imbalances: Tripolamty and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), 66.
Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, 6th ed., rev. Kenneth Thompson (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1985)
Morton Kaplan, System and Process in International Politics (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1957).
Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979).
John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform (London: Macmillan, 1923), chap. 3.
See Imre Lakatos, “Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programs,” in Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge, eds. Imre Lakatos and Alan Musgrave (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1970), 132–177.
Jack S. Levy, “Balances and Balancing: Concepts, Propositions, and Research Design,” in Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate, eds. John A. Vasquez and Colin Elman (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2003), 135.
Soft balancing is also rejected by Stephen G. Brooks and William Wohlforth, “Hard Times for Soft Balancing,” International Security 30 (Summer 2005): 72–108; and
Keir A. Lieber and Gerard Alexander, “Waiting for Balancing,” International Security 30 (Summer 2005): 109–39.
Robert A. Pape, “Soft Balancing against the United States,” International Security 30 (Summer 2005): 36.
T. V. Paul, “Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primacy,” International Security 30 (Summer 2005): 58
Stephen M. Walt, Taming American Power: The Global Response to American Primacy (New York: W. W. Norton, 2005), 126–7, suggests something similar
Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987).
Thucydides, Peloponnesian War in The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to The Peloponnesian War ed. Robert B. Strassler (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), 5.27.2.
Robert G. Kaufman, “To Balance or to Bandwagon: Alignment Decisions in 1930s Europe,” Security Studies 1, (Spring 1992): 417–47
Schweller, Deadly Imbalances; Paul W. Schroeder, “Historical Reality versus Neo-Realist Theory,” International Security 19 (Summer 1994): 123–4; Schweller, “Unanswered Threats,” 160.
Eric J. Labs, “Beyond Victory: Offensive Realism and the Expansion of War Aims,” Security Studies 6 (Summer 1997): 15.
Walt, Origins of Alliances; Samuel P. Huntington, “The Lonely Superpower,” Foreign Affairs 78 (March/April 1999): 46.
John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 2001), 163.
Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In,” International Security 19 (1994): 95–8.
Joseph Greico, “Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism,” International Organization 42 (Summer 1988): 485–507.
Further evidence for “the collaboration of the strong” can be found in William B. Moul, “Great Power Nondefense Alliances and the Escalation to War of Conflicts Between Unequals, 1915–1939,” International Interactions 15 (1988): 25–44.
Neil McFarlane, “Realism and Russian Strategy after the Collapse of the USSR,” in Unipolar Politics: Realism and State Strategies After the Cold War eds. Ethan B. Kapstein and Michael Mastanduno (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999), 228–231, describes how bandwagoning serves the interests of Russia and its leaders; his discussion implies that it would apply to China as well.
Jennifer M. Lind, “Pacifism or Passing the Buck? Testing Theories of Japanese Security Policy,” International Security 29 (Summer 2004): 92–121, discusses this as a Japanese strategy.
See Jeanne L. Wilson, Strategic Partners: Russian-Chinese Relations in the Post-Soviet Era (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2004)
David Shambaugh, Modernizing China’s Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2002), 285–9, 302–4.
See Mark Magnier and Kim Murphy, “An Exercise Fit for Sending U.S. a Message,” Los Angeles Times, August 17, 2005.
Thomas Ambrosio, Challenging America’s Global Preeminence: Russia’s Quest for Multipolarity (Aldershot, UK: Ashgate, 2005), interprets Russian actions as attempts at balancing, mixed on occasion by bandwagoning
Josh White, “Uzbekistan Senate Says U.S. Troops Must Leave: Vote Backs Earlier Government Action,” Washington Post August 27, 2005, Al2.
Ann Scott Tyson, “U.S. Bases Are Focus on Rumsfeld’s Trip to Central Asia,” Washington Post July 26, 2005, A14.
Anand Menon, France, NATO and the Limits of Independence, 1981–97: Politics of Ambivalence (Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, UK: Macmillan, 2000), 130–3.
Quoted in Ted Galen Carpenter, “NATO’s New Strategic Concept: Coherent Blueprint or Conceptual Muddle?” in NATO Enters the 21st Century, ed. Carpenter (London: Frank Cass, 2001), 21.
Jeremy Rabkin, “Eurojustice: An Exercise in Posing and Preening,” The Weekly Standard September 10, 2001: 19.
Roberti Art, “Correspondence: Striking the Balance,” International Security 30 (Winter 2005/6): 178–80, sees this as balancing, at least of the soft variety.
James H. Nolt, “The Pentagon Plays Its China Card,” World Policy Journal (Fall 2005): 25–33.
Keith Crane, et al., Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraint (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2005), 134.
See Harold Brown, Chinese Military Power (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2003).
See Thomas S. Mowle, Allies at Odds? The United States and the European Union (New York: Palgrave, 2004), 126–134. Brooks and Wohlforth, “Hard Times,” 91–3 concur; Art, “Correspondence,” 180–3, does not.
For a thorough discussion of India and Pakistan, see Lowell Dittmer, ed., South Asia’s Nuclear Security Dilemma: India, Pakistan, and China (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2005).
Paul J. Bolt and Albert S. Willner, eds., China’s Nuclear Future (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2006).
See Robert J. Einhorn, “A Transatlantic Strategy on Iran’s Nuclear Program,” The Washington Quarterly 27 (Autumn 2004): 21–32
Wyn Q. Bowen and Joanna Kidd, “The Iranian Nuclear Challenge,” International Affairs 80 (2004): 257–76; Iran: Security Threats and U.S. Policy, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, October 28, 2003
Roger Howard, Iran in Crisis? Nuclear Ambitions and the American Response (London: Zed Books, 2004), 89–114
Al J. Venter, Iran’s Nuclear Option: Tehran’s Quest for the Atom Bomb (Philadelphia: Casemate, 2005)
Richard N. Haass, “Regime Change and Its Limits,” Foreign Affairs 84 (July/ August 2005)
Kenneth Pollack and Ray Takeyh, “Taking on Tehran,” Foreign Affairs 84 (March/April 2005).
See Narushige Michishita, “North Korea’s ‘First’ Nuclear Diplomacy,” The Journal of Strategic Studies 26 (December 2003): 47–82; A Report on Latest Round of Six-Way Talks Regarding Nuclear Weapons in North Korea, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, July 15, 2004
Joel S. Wit, Daniel B. Poneman, and Robert L. Gallucci, Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004)
Ted Galen Carpenter and Doug Bandow, The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea (New York: Palgrave, 2004); Haass, “Regime Change.
Selig Harrison, “Did North Korea Cheat?” Foreign Affairs 84 (January/ February 2005): 99–110, argues that it is not clear that North Korea really had been breaking its agreement.
For details of the more recent issues, see Sharon Richardson, ed., Perspectives on U.S. Policy Toward North Korea: Stalemate or Checkmate? (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2006).
Gunther Hellmann and Reinhard Wolf. “Neorealism, Neoliberal Institutionalism, and the Future of NATO,” Security Studies 3 (Autumn 1993): 3–43.
See David S. Yost, “The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO Allies,” International Affairs 80 (2004): 718–721.
This is quite well-known, but see for example Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (New York: Random House, 1987), 357–395
Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994), 423–593.
Kissinger, Diplomacy, 137–167; Kennedy, Rise and Fall, 187–193; Robert K. Massie, Dreadnought: Britain, Germany, and the Coming of the Great War (New York: Random House, 1991), 77–90.
Schroeder, “Why Realism Does not Work Well for International History,” in Realism and the Balancing of Power, 116–7; Schroeder, The Transformation of European Politics, 1763–1848 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994), 100–476.
Copyright information
© 2007 Thomas S. Mowle, David H. Sacko
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Mowle, T.S., Sacko, D.H. (2007). Balancing and Bandwagoning in a Unipolar System. In: The Unipolar World. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230603073_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230603073_4
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, New York
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-53198-1
Online ISBN: 978-0-230-60307-3
eBook Packages: Palgrave Political & Intern. Studies CollectionPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)