Abstract
Although standard economic theory is based on methodological individualism, this does not imply that individuals play a crucial role in economic models. On the contrary, in such a theory individuals are deprived of authentic subjective features and play no significant role as genuine subjects. The so-called homo economicus is characterized by given preferences that are conceived as exogenous and invariant over time. Therefore, the genuine psychological features of an economic agent do not matter.
* A preliminary version of the ideas discussed in this chapter was presented at the conference ‘Keynes, Knowledge and Uncertainty’ (University of Leeds, March 1996) and published in its proceedings (Vercelli, 2002). Successive versions have been presented on many occasions, including the annual conference of Anpac (San Salvador de Bahia, December 2001), the annual conference of EAEPE (Siena, November 2001), the first meeting of the Italian Society of Cognitive Sciences (Rovereto, September 2002), the World Congress of IEA (Lisbon, September 2002), and the conference on ‘Complex Behaviour in Economics’ (Aix-en-Provence, May 2003). I thank the audience at each of my presentations for their constructive comments. In addition, I wish to thank Bina Agarwal, Samuel Bowles and Stefano Fiori for their helpful suggestions.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Albin, P. (2001) Barriers and Bounds to Rationality: Essays on Economic Complexity and Dynamics in Interactive Systems (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
Anscombe, F.J. and R.J. Aumann (1963) ‘A Definition of Subjective Probability’, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, vol. 34, pp. 199–205.
Arrow, K.J. (1953) ‘Le rôle des valeurs boursières pour la répartition la meilleure des risques’, Econométrie, vol. 11, pp. 41–8.
Arrow, K.J. —* (1987) ‘Rationality of Seif and Others in an Economic System’, in R.M. Hogart and M.W. Reder (eds), Rational Choice. The Contrast between Economics and Psychology (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), pp. 201–16.
Arrow, K.J. and G. Debreu (1954) ‘Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy’, Econometrica, vol. 26, pp. 265–90.
Arrow, K.J. and F.H. Hahn (1971) Competitive General Equilibrium Analysis (San Francisco: Holden-Day).
Begg, D.K.H. (1982) The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics (Oxford: Allan).
Bray, M. (1982) ‘Learning, Estimation, and the Stability of Rational Expectations Equilibria’, Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 26, pp. 313–17.
Bray, M. and N.E. Savin (1986) ‘Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning and Model Specification’, Econometrica, vol. 54, pp. 1129–60.
Cagan, P. (1956) ‘The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation’, in M. Friedman (ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (Chicago: Aldine), pp. 25–117.
DeCanio, S.J. (1979) ‘Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 93, pp. 47–58.
Debreu, G. (1959) Theory of Value: An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium, Cowles Foundation Monograph no. 17 (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press).
De Finetti, B. (1937) ‘La Prévision: Ses Lois Logiques, Ses Sources Subjectives’, Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré, vol. 7, pp. 1–68. English translation: ‘Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources’,
in H.E. Kyburg and H.E. Smokler (eds) (1964) Studies in Subjective Probabilities (New York: Wiley), pp. 93–158.
Ellsberg, D. (1961) ‘Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 75, pp. 643–69.
Epstein, L. and M. Le Breton (1993) ‘Dynamically Consistent Beliefs Must Be Bayesian’, Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 61, pp. 1–22.
Evans, G.W. (1983) ‘The Stability of Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models’, in R. Frydman and E.S. Phelps (eds), Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes. ‘Rational’ Expectations Examined (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 67–94.
Evans, G.W. and S. Honkapohja (1994) ‘Learning, Convergence and Stability with Multiple Rational Expectations Equilibria’, European Economic Review, vol. 38, pp. 1071–98.
— (2001) Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
Foley, D.K. (2001) ‘Introduction’, in Albin (2001), pp. 3–72.
Fourgeaud, C., C. Gourieroux and J. Pradel (1986) ‘Learning Procedure and Convergence to Rationality’, Econometrica, vol. 54, pp. 845–68.
Gadamer, H.-G. (1960) Wahrheit und Methode (Tübingen: J.C.B. Mohr) English translation: Truth and Method (London and New York: Sheed & Ward, 1989).
Gärdenfors P. and N.-E. Sahlin (1982) ‘Unreliable Probabilities, Risk Taking, and Decision Making’, Synthèse, vol. 53, pp. 361–86.
Gilboa, I. (1987) ‘Expected Utility with Purely Subjective Non-Additive Probabilities’, Journal of Mathematical Economics, vol. 16, pp. 65–8.
— (1989) ‘Additivizations of Nonadditive Measures’, Mathematics of Operation Research, vol. 4, pp. 1–17.
Gilboa, I. and D. Schmeidler (1989) ‘Maximin Expected Utility with a Non-unique Prior’, Journal of Mathematical Economics, vol. 18, pp. 141–53.
— (1993) ‘Updating Ambiguous Beliefs’, Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 59, pp. 33–49.
Ingrao, B. and G. Israel (1990) The Invisible Hand: Economic Equilibrium in the History of Science (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press).
Kahneman, D. (2003) ‘Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics’, American Economic Review, vol. 93, pp. 1449–75.
Kelsey D. and J. Quiggin (1992) ‘Theories of Choice under Ignorance and Uncertainty’, Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 6(2), pp. 133–53.
Keynes, J.M. (1936) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (London: Macmillan, now Palgrave) and as Vol. 7: The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes (London: Macmillan, now Palgrave, 1973).
Kreps, D.M. (1988) Notes on the Theory of Choice (Boulder, CO: Westview Press).
Kurz, M. (1994a) ‘On Rational Belief Equilibria’, Economic Theory, vol. 4, pp. 859–76.
— (1994b) ‘On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs’, Economic Theory, vol. 4, pp. 877–900.
Kurz, M. (1995) ‘Rational Preferences and Rational Beliefs’, in K.J. Arrow, E. Colombatto, M. Perlman and C. Schmidt (eds), The Rational Foundations of Economic Behaviour (London: Palgrave Macmillan), pp. 339–61.
Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1978) ‘Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy’, Econometrica, vol. 46, pp. 1429–45.
— (1986) ‘Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory’, Journal of Business, vol. 59, Supplement, pp. 5401–26.
Machina, M.J. and D. Schmeidler (1992) ‘A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability’, Econometrica, vol. 60(4), pp. 745–80.
Marcet, A. and T.J. Sargent (1988) ‘The Fate of Systems with “Adaptive” Expectations’, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, vol. 78, pp. 168–72.
— (1989a) ‘Convergence of Least Squares Learning Mechanisms in Self-Referential Stochastic Models’, Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 48, pp. 337–68.
— (1989b) ‘Convergence of Least Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information’, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 97, pp. 1306–22.
March, J.G. (1988) Decisioni e organizzazioni (Bologna: Il Mulino).
Mas-Colell, A., M.D. Whinston and J.R. Green (1995) Microeconomic Theory (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
Minford, P. and D. Peel (1983) Rational Expectations and the New Macroeconomics (Oxford: Martin Robertson).
Morgenstern, O. and J. von Neumann (1944) The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
Muth, J.F. (1961) ‘Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements’, Econometrica, vol. 29, pp. 315–35.
Phillips, R., R.E. Freeman and A.C. Wicks (2003) ‘What Stakeholder Theory is Not’, Business Ethics Quarterly, vol. 13(4), pp. 479–502.
Ponsard, C. (1986) ‘Foundations of Soft Decision Theory’, in J. Kacprzyk and R.R. Yeger (eds), Management Decision Support Systems Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory (Cologne: Verlag TUV).
Samuelson, P.A. (1947) Foundations of Economic Analysis (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press).
Sargent, T.J. (1993) Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics (Boston, MA: MIT Press)
Savage, L.J. (1954) The Foundations of Statistics (New York: John Wiley & Sons), Revised and enlarged edition (New York: Dover, 1972).
Scarf, H. (1960) ‘Some Examples of Global Instability of Competitive Equilibrium’, International Economic Review, vol. 1(3), pp. 157–72.
Schmeidler, D. (1982) ‘Subjective Probability Without Additivity’, Working Paper, Foerder Institute for Economic Research, Tel Aviv University.
Schumpeter, J.A. (1934) The Theory of Economic Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
Segal, U. (1987) ‘The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach’, International Economic Review, vol. 28(1), pp. 175–202.
Shackle, G.L.S. (1952) Expectations in Economics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Simon, H.A. (1976) ‘From Substantive to Procedural Rationality’, in S.J. Latsis (ed.), Method and Appraisal in Economics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 129–48; reprinted in
Simon, H.A. (1982) Models of Bounded Rationality, vol. 2, pp. 424–43.
— (1982) Models of Bounded Rationality (Cambridge MA: MIT Press).
Sonnenschein, H. (1973) ‘Do Walras’ Identity and Continuity Characterize the Class of Community Excess Demand Functions?’, Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 6, pp. 345–54.
Vercelli, A. (1991) Methodological Foundations of Macroeconomics. Keynes and Lucas (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
— (1995) ‘From Soft Uncertainty to Hard Environmental Uncertainty’, Economie Appliquée, vol. 48, pp. 251–69.
— (1999) ‘The Recent Advances in Decision Theory under Uncertainty: A Nontechnical Introduction’, in L. Luini (ed.), Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments (Dordrecht: Kluwer), pp. 237–60.
— (2000) ‘Financial Fragility and Cyclical Fluctuations’, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, vol. 1, pp. 139–56.
— (2002) ‘Uncertainty, Rationality and Learning: A Keynesian Perspective’, in S. Dow and J. Hillard (eds), Keynes, Uncertainty and the Global Economy, Vol. 2 (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar), pp. 88–105.
Walras, L. (1874) Elément d’économie politique pure ou théorie de la richesse sociale (Lausanne: L. Corbaz)
trans. W. Jaffé, Elements of Pure Economics or The Theory of Social Wealth (London: Allen & Unwin), 1954.
Willinger, M. (1990) ‘Irréversibilité et cohérence dynamique des choix’, Revue d’Economie Politique, vol. 100(6), pp. 808–32.
Woodford, M. (1990) ‘Learning to Believe in Sunspots’, Econometrica, vol. 58, pp. 277–307.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2005 International Economic Association
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Vercelli, A. (2005). Rationality, Learning and Complexity. In: Agarwal, B., Vercelli, A. (eds) Psychology, Rationality and Economic Behaviour. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230522343_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230522343_3
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-52144-9
Online ISBN: 978-0-230-52234-3
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)