Money-Inflation Causality in Transition Economies: The Case of Russia

Abstract

Despite numerous empirical studies of the role of money in the evolution of market economies, the topic sparked considerable controversy when the new economic environment was created in the former socialist economies of Central and Eastern Europe. Among the unsettled policy issues that were unwittingly extended to transition economies were those related to Granger causality testing and the suitability of the chosen macroeconomic stabilization programmes. This chapter aims to shed additional light on the choice of lag selection criteria for causality testing on the one hand, and the suitability of monetary aggregates for influencing and controlling inflation via policy instruments in transition economies on the other.¹