What Future for Europe’s Security and Defense Policy? Five Scenarios for the Year 2020
The struggle against terrorism, the near-breakdown of the transatlantic partnership over the War on Iraq, and the difficulties in adopting the draft treaty for a European constitution make it hard to envisage alternative future developments of Europe’s Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). It seems as if the basic parameters of the international order established since the end of the Second World War are undergoing fundamental change, while a joint vision of the future international order and a common understanding of how to proceed are missing. Situations like this provide ample risks and opportunities. Ignoring the forces of change or believing in the existence of an auto-pilot that will bring international relations back to normalcy would be wrong. Rather, we contend that it is important to identify the key drivers shaping the future and to think about a range of possible outcomes. To this purpose our paper presents five scenarios for the future of the European Union (EU) in general and the ESDP in particular.
KeywordsEurope Coherence Explosive Turkey Expense
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