Abstract
When the Soviet Union began to collapse in 1991, the Caspian region quickly attained salience in the international arena, focused initially around suspicions that the region housed Persian Gulf sized reserves of oil and gas. The oil industry’s interest in the area dates from the mid-1980s when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev first seriously raised the prospect of foreign investment to develop the vast unexploited riches of the Caspian area. Then in 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union rendered the reserves of the newly independent states of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan of immediate interest.
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Notes
Rosmarie Forsythe, “The Politics of Oil in the Caucasus and Central Asia”, Adelphi Papers, No. 300, 1996; Rajan Menon, “In the Shadow of the Bear: Security in Post-Soviet Central Asia”, International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1 (Summer 1995); Graham Fuller, “Central Asia: The New Geopolitics” (Santa Monica: Rand, 1992);
John Roberts, “Caspian Pipelines” (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1996); Ian Brimmer, “Oil, Politics: America and the Riches of the Caspian Basin”, World Policy Journal, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Spring 1998).
Ronald Soligo and Joe Barnes, “Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline: Bad economics, Bad Politics, Bad Idea Oil and Gas Journal, Vol. 96, No. 43. (1998) pp. 29–34.
D. Morgan and D. Ottoway, Washington Post, 6 July 1997. See Z. Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard (New York: Basic Books 1997). A good critique of this school is provided by O. Harries, ‘The Dangers of Expansive Realism’, The National Interest, No. 50 (Winter 1997/1998), pp. 3–7.
The US Congress passed legislation, the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) of 1996, that would allow it to impose sanctions on third parties which invested in Iran’s oil and gas industry. Other US laws restrict such investments by US companies to $40 million. This policy is nicely described by Washington analyst Robert Ebel as “ABI: anywhere but Iran”. See R. E. Ebel, Energy Choices in the Near Abroad: the Haves and Have-Nots Face the Future (Washington, DC Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997): and
G. Kemp, “The Persian Gulf Remains the Strategic Prize”, Survival, Vol. 40, No. 4) (winter 1998), pp. 132–49.
For a detailed discussion of US military involvment, see R. Sokolsky, and T., Charlick-Paley, “NATO and Caspion Security: A Mission Too Far” RAND Coporation, Santa Monica, CA, 1999 and R. Bhatty, and R. Bronson, “NATO’s Mixed Signals in the Caucasus and Central Asia.” Survival, Vol. 42, No.3 (Autumn 2000), pp. 129–45.
Gaye Christoffersen, “China’s Intentions for Russian and Central Asian Oil and Gas,” Analysis, The National Bureau of Asian Research. Vol. 9, No. 2, (1998) p. 6.
Geoffrey Kemp, Energy Superbowl: Strategic Politics and the Persian Gulf and Caspian Basin, (Washington: The Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom, 1997).
Dru Gladney, “China’s Interest in Central Asia”, in Energy and Conflict in Central Asia and the Caucasus, edited by Robert Ebel and Rajan Menon, The National Bureau of Asian Research (Oxford, UK: Roman & Littlefield Publishers, 2000).
Amy Myers Jaffe and Martha Brill Olcott, “The Geopolitics of Caspian Energy”, in The Euro-Asian World: A period of Transition, edited by Yelena Kalyuzhnova and Dov Lynch (London: Macmillan Press — now Palgrave, 2001).
Rajan Menon, “Treacherous Terrain: The Political and Security Dimensions of Energy Development in the Caspian Sea Zone,” Analysis, the National Bureau of Asian Research. Vol. 9, No. 1, (1998) p. 10.
See Justin Jon Rudelson, Oasis Identities: Uighur Nationalism Along China’s Silk Road (New York: Colombia University Press, 1998) .
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© 2002 Ronald Soligo and Amy Myers Jaffe
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Soligo, R., Jaffe, A.M. (2002). The Economics of Pipeline Routes: The Conundrum of Oil Exports from the Caspian Basin. In: Kalyuzhnova, Y., Jaffe, A.M., Lynch, D., Sickles, R.C. (eds) Energy in the Caspian Region. Euro-Asian Studies. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230501225_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230501225_6
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