Nonparametric EWS Models of Currency and Banking Crises for East Asia

  • Juzhong Zhuang


This chapter presents two early warning system (EWS) models, one for currency crises, the other for banking crises. The two models follow the signaling approach pioneered by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). They are estimated using monthly data of six East Asian countries—Indonesia, Republic of Korea (Korea), Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—and, therefore, may be considered “regional models.” In contrast, empirical EWS models reported in existing studies were often estimated using data of 20–30 countries, including both developed and developing countries, and thus can be considered “global models.”


Gross Domestic Product Real Exchange Rate Composite Index Currency Crisis Banking Crisis 
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  • Juzhong Zhuang

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