Predicting Financial Crises: An Overview

  • Morris Goldstein


This paper aims to provide an overview of the progress in developing and applying early warning systems (EWS) for financial (banking and currency) crises in emerging economies. Investing in the development of an early warning model is important for two reasons. First, banking and currency crises are extremely costly to the countries in which they originate—as well as to other countries that are affected by the spillover of the original crisis.


Gross Domestic Product Early Warning Real Exchange Rate Early Warning System Asian Financial Crisis 
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© Asian Development Bank 2005

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  • Morris Goldstein

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