Skip to main content

The Analysis of Investments

  • Chapter
  • 916 Accesses

Abstract

Six case studies illustrate the accounting, discounted cash flow (DCF), expected net present value (ENPV) and real options investment analysis methods:

  • A corporate software IT project – which considers the asset DCF, and the option to defer, the equivalent to a call option.

  • A power generator valuation – using the DCF method and switching options, represented as a series of call options on the plant, which can identify the value flowing into a firm’s income statement.

  • A pharmaceutical drug development – using DCF, ENPV and real options methods.

  • A manufacturing firm – illustrates residual earnings and growth options and examines growth through innovation and the sustainability issues around climate change.

  • The metamorphosis of a media firm – examines the abandonment option, with the exit from the firm’s existing operations to align its business model with the transformation to an information economy.

  • The sale of commercial real estate assets – which analyzes the put real option in the deferring of an office property sale.

The first, second, fourth and fifth case studies are hypothetical examples constructed to illustrate the industry issues and valuation methodologies. The third case study shows the various valuation methods used in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, while the sixth case study appeared in the Real Estate Finance Journal.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Baldwin, C.Y. and Clark, K.B. Design Rules: The Power of Modularity, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baumert, K., Herzog, T., and Pershing, J. Navigating the Numbers–Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy, World Resources Institute, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berger, P., Ofck, E., and Swary, I. Investor valuation of the abandonment option, Journal of Financial Economics, 42: 257–87, 1996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brueggeman, W. and Fisher, J.D. Real Estate Finance and Investments, 10th edn, Irwin Publishing, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bulan, L., Mayer, C., and Sommerville, C. Irreversible Investment, Real Options, and Competition: Evidence from Real Estate Development, unpublished manuscript, Faculty of Commerce, UBC, Vancouver, 2002.

    Google Scholar 

  • Challa, R. Discovering multiple interacting options, Energy and Power Risk Management, July 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  • Childs, P., Ott, H., and Riddiough, T. Effects of noise on optimal exercise decisions: the case of risky debt secured by renewable lease income, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 28: 109–21, 2004, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clewlow, L. and Strickland, C. Implementing Derivative Models, Wiley, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clewlow, L. and Strickland, C. Energy Derivatives, Pricing and Risk Management, Lacima, 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  • DiMasi, J. and Grabowski, H. The cost of biopharmaceutical R&D: is biotech different? Managerial and Decision Economics, 28: 469–479, 2007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DiMasi, J., Hansen, R., and Grabowski, H. The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs, Journal of Health Economics, 22, 151–185, 2003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DiMasi, J.A., Hansen, R.W., Grabowski, H.G., and Lasagna, L. Cost of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, Journal of Health Economics 10, 107–142.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, M., L’Heureux, S., and Friedman, D. Modeling the sale of corporate real estate assets: a case study using real options, The Real Estate Finance Journal, Spring 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dixit, A. and Pindyck, R. Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fabozzi, F. and Jacob, D. (eds) The Handbook of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, Wiley, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  • Foster, R. and Kaplan, S. Creative Destruction, Doubleday, 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geske, R. The valuation of compound options, Journal of Financial Economics, 1978.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geske, R. and Zhou, Y. Capital Structure Effects on Prices of Firm Stock Options: Tests Using Implied Market Values of Corporate Debt, UCLA Working Paper, 2007a.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geske, R. and Zhou, Y. Predicting Risk and Return of the S&P 500: Evidence from Index Options, UCLA Working Paper, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grant, R. Contemporary Strategy Analysis, Blackwell, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Haug, E.G. The Complete Guide to Option Pricing Formulas, McGraw-Hill, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirsh, R. Power Loss, MIT Press, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hooke, J. Security Analysis on Wall Street, Wiley, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 Factsheet, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, J. What you should know about the newspaper industry, Frontline, PBS, February 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellogg, D. and Charnes, J.M. Real options valuation for a biotechnology company, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly, M. and Teufel, S. Fisher Investments on Health Care, Wiley, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kohut, A., Doherty, C., Dimock, M., and Keeter, S. Online papers modestly boost newspaper readership, The Pew Reseach Center, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kulatilaka, N., Balasubramanian, P., and Storck, J. Using real options to frame the IT investment problem, in Trigeorgis, L. (ed.) Real Options and Business Strategy, Risk Books, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  • L’Heureux, S. and Coleman, M. Efficient Management of Corporate-Owned Real Estate Assets: A Real-Options Based Model, unpublished manuscript, 2003a.

    Google Scholar 

  • L’Heureux, S. and Coleman, M. The Determination of Real Rental Rates, unpublished manuscript, 2003b.

    Google Scholar 

  • L’Heureux, S. and Coleman, M. The Real Options Valuation of a Hidden Real Estate Asset: The Case of a Carrier Hotel, unpublished manuscript, 2003c.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lütolf-Carroll, C. From Innovation to Cash Flows, Wiley, 2009.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mbanefo, A. Co-movement Term Structure and the Valuation of Energy Spread Options: Mathematics of Derivative Securities, Cambridge University Press, 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCraw, T. Prophet of Innovation, Belknap Harvard, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  • Merton, R. On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates, Journal of Finance, 29 (2): 449–470, 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  • MIT Roundtable on Corporate Risk Management, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 20(4): Fall 2008.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, S. and Howe, C. A Life-Cycle Financial Model of Pharmaceutical R&D, MIT, April 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, S. and Shyam-Sunder, L. Measuring pharmaceutical industry risk and the cost of capital, in Helms, R.B. (ed.) Competitive Strategies in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Washington, DC, American Enterprise Institute Press, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  • Paul, S, Mytelka, D, Dunwiddie, C, Persinger, C, Munos, B, Lindborg, S and Schacht, A. How to improve R&D productivity: the pharmaceutical industry’s grand challenge, Nature Reviews - Drug Discovery, Volume 9, March 2010

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearson, N. An efficient approach for pricing spread options, The Journal of Derivatives, Fall 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  • Penman, S. Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, Irwin McGraw-Hill, 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Getting Ahead of the Curve: Corporate Strategies That Address Climate Change, October 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quigg, L. Empirical testing of real option-pricing models, Journal of Finance, 48: 621–640, 1993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ravindran, K. Low-fat Spreads, Over the Rainbow, Risk Publications, 1993.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rose, R. A comprehensive strategy for federal investment in fuel cell technology and fuel infrastructure, Breakthrough Technologies Institute, Inc., 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rudie Harrigan, K. Declining Demand, Divestiture, and Corporate Strategy, Beard, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz, E.S. The stochastic behaviour of commodity price: implications for valuation and hedging, The Journal of Finance, LII(3): 923–973, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz, E.S. and Torous, W. Commercial Office Space: Tests of a Real Options Model with Competitive Interactions, UCLA, February 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz, E.S. and Walter, N. Commercial Office Space: Tests of a Real Options Model with Competitive Interactions, working paper, The Anderson School, UCLA, 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stearns, P. The Industrial Revolution in World History, Westview Press, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stewart, J. Allison, P., and Johnson, R. Putting a price on biotechnology, Nature Biotechnology, 19, September 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stowe, J. D., Robinson, T.R., Pinto, J.E., and McLeavey, D.W. Equity Asset Valuation, Wiley, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan, K., Chalasani, P., Jha, S., and Sazawal, V. Software design as an investment activity: a real options perspective, in Trigeorgis, L. (ed.) Real Options and Business Strategy, Risk Books, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomsett, R. Third Wave Project Management, Prentice Hall–Yourdon Press, 1993.

    Google Scholar 

  • Titman, S. Urban land prices under uncertainty, American Economic Review, 75: 505–514, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tong, T. and Reuer, J. Corporate Investment Decisions and the Value of Growth Options, 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  • Trigeorgis, L. Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, MIT Press, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  • US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Pharmaceutical R&D: Costs Risks and Rewards, OTA-M-522, Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, February 1993.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wellington, F. and Sauer, A. Framing Climate Risk in Portfolio Management, World Resources Institute, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, J. Real estate development as an option, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 4, 1991–2008.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, Y. Pricing Individual Stock Options on Firms with Leverage, Anderson School of Management at UCLA, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Copyright information

© 2013 Jamie Rogers

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Rogers, J. (2013). The Analysis of Investments. In: Strategy, Value and Risk. Palgrave Macmillan Finance and Capital Markets Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230392687_6

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics