Conclusion

Abstract

I suggested at the beginning that Ghana and Tanzania were interesting cases because they occupied an intermediate position between the countries which had apparently democratised successfully and those that had little immediate prospect of doing so. Ghana and Tanzania had a much more difficult task than Greece or Uruguay, where most of the ingredients for successful democratic transition were present, but not as difficult as Ethiopia or Iraq. At one time I had assumed that countries which democratised earliest would normally be those in which the conditions for democracy were most propitious, just as the most fleet of foot pass the winning post first, but now I am not so sure. Countries may be early democratisers because the incumbent regime is so oppressive that there is a widespread determination to remove it (Chile), because foolish decisions undermine the government’s authority (the Argentinean invasion of the Falklands), because economic collapse renders the government ineffective (Benin) or because the country is swept along by the influence of democratisation in neighbouring or similar countries (some of Frenchspeaking West Africa).