Long-term, Renewables-Intensive World Energy Scenarios

Abstract

Can renewable energy sources make a major contribution to the world’s growing energy needs, and to reducing atmospheric carbon emissions, during the 21st century? A number of detailed energy scenarios produced in recent years suggest that this is the case, and that it is feasible, technologically and economically, to reduce world atmospheric CO2 emissions by 60-80% by mid-century, in order to avoid dangerous climate change. In most of these scenarios, developed by a variety of respected inter-governmental, governmental and nongovernmental organisations, the rapid deployment of renewables (and in some cases other low- or zero-carbon energy sources), coupled with major improvements in the efficiency of energy use, play a major role in enabling fossil fuel use, with its associated carbon emissions, to be largely phased-out by the end of the 21st century.