Abstract
This chapter deals with the problems, constraints and economic prospects of the FSU’s fuel supplies. The analysis is restricted to the three major fuels, with the main emphasis on oil and natural gas. We pursue the inquiry in the following order: Section one examines the physical and technological constraints on fuel extraction. This section also establishes the linkage between these constraints and the cost of and prospects for future extraction. Section two deals with the economics of FSU fuel production, projects the probable shifts in costs and relates them to our scenarios. Section three places the issues into the institutional and socio-political context. Fuel production under the different scenarios will be subject to constraints and disturbances of a socio-economic nature. It will also be influenced heavily by perceptions of national interest.
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Notes
In 1990 average well yield in the FSU was 8.88 tons per day, and in Russia 11.5 tons per day. Wells commissioned in Russia before 1991 will pump only about 3.3 tons by 2000. In that year. the average new well in Russia will pump less than six tons per day, because of the exhaustion of high-yielding reservoirs (Information from NIIEng., 1992). The average well yield outside Russia was 4.8 tons in 1990, with a further decline anticipated everywhere except Kazakhstan (Oil ministry statistics from Birman, 1992).
Samotlor, Romashkino, Sutorminsk and Tallinskiy, with almost 33000 wells (Arbatov et al. 1991, p. 26; The Oil and Gas Journal, 7 October 1991, p. 28; Taganskiy et al., 1991, pp. 4–7; Khalimov, 1991, p. 14.
All the maps and charts in this chapter were drafted by Messrs Phil Reed, Cary de Wit and Greg Hughes at the University of Kansas Cartographic Service.
By the end of 1991, West Siberia produced 38 per cent of the Soviet cumulative total (Maksimov, 1989, vol. I, pp. 12–14; USGS, 1975). Cumulative production in European and Caucasian provinces of the FSU computed as total minus those in West Siberia and Sakhalin (Riva, 1991, p. 62; Dinkov, 1987, p. 255; Surgutskaia tribuna, 26 May 1992, p. 2; Panfilov, 1990, p. 25; API, Basic Petroleum Data Book, various recent issues).
Sources for data: Birman, 1992; Arbatov et. al., 1991, Tables 2.18 and pp. 50–1; Wilson, 1991, Table 2.9; Ikonnikov and Fayzullin, 1991, p. 3; Rudenko and Makarov, 1990, p. 26. 31. Sources: Birman, 1992; VNIIKTEP, 1989, pp. 62–3; Wilson, 1991, Tables 47–50. 32. Sources: Birman, 1992; Arbatov, 1991; Filimonov, Neftianoe khoziaistvo, 1990b; Neverov and Igolkin, 1991–2; Churilov, 1991.
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© 1994 Leslie Dienes, Istvan Dobozi and Marian Radetzki
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Dienes, L., Dobozi, I., Radetzki, M. (1994). Production Constraints and Prospects. In: Energy and Economic Reform in the Former Soviet Union. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230377158_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230377158_3
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