Conclusions

Abstract

In drawing any lessons from the five case studies, two methodological problems arise. Firstly, the reader needs to be convinced that the interpretation of the particular country’s experience is correct. Secondly, it has to be demonstrated that the lessons can be generalized and are applicable to other developing countries. Both these conditions are difficult to satisfy. One way to meet such objectives could be through empirically estimated descriptive (as opposed to normative) computable general equilibrium models of the countries. Counterfactual simulation with the model of the case study country can show that the policies indeed were responsible for the effects ascribed to them. Similarly, simulation of the model of the country to which the lessons are being applied can demonstrate whether or not the policy has a similar outcome. Unfortunately, the requirements of data are too stringent for such an exercise to be attempted here.