The Arts of Forecasting and Policy Making

Abstract

Recent nonnative discussions of “first admission” policies (migration, refugee and asylum policies) show much conflict and very little consensus. All possible positions are being promoted, from completely open borders, fairly open borders, bounded openness to strictly closed borders. Proponents of fairly open borders have constantly been faced with counter-arguments based upon ill predictions, fears and doom-scenarios (see Bader 1997). Furthermore, they have to admit that open borders put much pressure upon processes and policies of incorporation (see WRR 1979: XXXII ff.; WRR 1989: 10f.) Apart from the difficulty of bringing about a comprehensive policy that takes the (supposed) consequences of fairly open borders into account,¹ a lot of theoretical and empirical knowledge of incorporation processes in all their dimensions (see Engbersen/Gabriels 1995; Bader 1996c) is needed. This knowledge however is contested and uncertain.

I made ample use of unpublished manuscripts by Jac Christis whom I particularly want to thank for his critical comments and suggestions. I am also indebted to Ton Korver, Marja Gastelaars, Ewald Engelen, Klaske de Jong and Rinus Penninx.

“Words that succeed, Policies that fail”