Abstract
India’s interest in Asian nations lying to its east has never been as strong as it has in those regions to its west. In part this attitude is cultural and historical: the great invasions of India all came from the west. India’s introduction to modern technology was through the colonisation process, and it has until recently shared alove-hate’ relationship with western technology. The conquests of Islam led to the development of a significant cultural affinity between north India and southwest Asia, one that involves language (Hindi and Urdu are significantly Persianised), art through Moghul miniature painting and other mediums, architecture, and food. The fact that political and cultural power tends to be located in the populous north, where the cultural connection with Southwest Asia is strongest, rather than in the south, through which the cultural links with Southeast Asia were originally extended, also gives rise to the perception of stronger linkages with nations to the west than to the east.
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Endnotes
See Malcolm Subhan, ‘Sengupta returns with task half-fulfilled’, Economic Times, 10 August 1993.
See for example Jagdish Bhagwati, ‘Negotiating Trade Blocs’, India Today, 15 July 1993, p.139.
Interview, Ashok Jha, Joint Secretary, Commerce Ministry, New Delhi, December 1993.
Japan Economic Research Institute, The Liberalization of India’s Economy and Japan’s Contribution, Tokyo, 1993, p. 15.
Then Thai PM Chatichai Choonhavan attempted to parry these fears on the part of India by claiming that the facility was intended for trade use only. See ‘Thailand PM speaks of winds of change in S.E. Asian region’, The Hindu, 1 April 1989.
D. R. Sardesai, ‘India and ASEAN—An Overview’, in S. Kumar (Ed.), Yearbook on India’s Foreign Policy, 1987/88, Tata-McGraw Hill, New Delhi, 1988, p. 117.
Ross Munro, ‘Indian naval build-up: mixed signals’, The Straits Times, 31 January 1991.
Ashley J. Tells, ‘Securing the Barrack: The Logic, Structure and Objectives of India’s Naval Expansion’, in R. Bruce (Ed.), TheModern Indian Navy and the Indian Ocean: Developments and Implications, Studies in Indian Ocean Maritime Affairs No 2, Centre for Indian Ocean Regional Studies, Curtin University, Perth, 1989, p. 35.
Quarterdeck ‘90 (official magazine of the Indian Navy, (Ed.) Uday Bhaskar), 1990, p. 71. Poachers are seeking shells, shark and live crocodiles.
See Mohan Ram, ‘Ruling the waves’, Far Eastern Economic Review, 15 May 1986, p. 30; Anon, ‘Major naval base takes shape in Bay of Bengal’, Aerospace, April 1992, p. 7; C.V.C. Naidu, ‘The Indian Navy and Southeast Asia’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 13, No. 1, June 1991, p. 81.
Ayoob mentions Indonesian pressure as a possible motive for abandoning the base, but thinks that strategic issues were also important. See India and South East Asia: Indian Perceptions and Policies, Routledge, London, 1990, pp. 42–43. Manoj Joshi doubts that the base was ever really an option since it would have been too vulnerable (Interview, New Delhi, December 1992).
Interviews: Maj. Gen. (Ret’d) Soebiyakto, Head, Institute of Strategic Studies, Jakarta, 12 September 1991; Sudartji, Institute of Strategic and International Studies, 13 September 1991; General Soedibyo, 13 September 1991.
For details of this modernisation process see Desmond Ball, Building Blocks for Regional Security: An Australian Perspective on Conjidence and Security Building Measures in the Asia/Pacific Region, Canberra Paper on Strategy and Defence No. 83, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Canberra 1991, Table 1, p. 13; Table 2, p. 14; Table 3, p. 15; and Table 4, p. 17.
William Branigin, quoting Desmond Ball, ‘As China Builds Arsenal and Bases, Asians Wary of “Rogue in the Region“’, Washington Post, 31 March 1993.
Derek da Cunha, ‘The ASEAN Armed Forces: A Case Study of Singapore and Malaysia’, Institute for South East Asian Studies, workshop on Major Asian powers and the security of Southeast Asia, Singapore, December 1990, p. 15.
For the statements of Rithaudeen and Singapore’s then Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew see Michael Richardson, ‘Southeast Asia Wary’, Pacific Defence Reporter, February 1990, p 42. See also thestatement of the then First Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore, Goh Chok Tong, as quoted in the Economist, 3 March 1990; and the statement of Brig. Gen. Lee of Singapore, as in The Sunday Times (Singapore), 11 March 1990. Mr Beazley’s statement was made in the Australian parliament on 28 March 1988. He also emphasised that India did not threaten Australia.
Admiral R.H. Tahiliani (Ret’d), ‘Maritime Strategy for the nineties’, Indian Defence Review, July 1989, p. 24.
Dinesh Kumar, ‘Joint naval exercise with Singapore’, Times ofIndia, 11 February 1993, p. 1 and p. 3.
Harvey Stockwin, ‘The Sea of Turbulence’, Times ofIndia, 9 August 1993.
Joint Press Release, New Delhi, 16–17 March 1993.
M.V. Bratersky and S.I. Lunyov, ‘India at the End of the Century: Transformation into an Asian Regional Power’, Asian Survey, Vol. XXX, No. 10, October 1990, p. 939; Reuters News Service, 10 January 1994 (ref: 000388539747).
‘India can’t be EAEC member, says Mahathir’, Times of India, 30 January 1992.
See Mohammed Ayoob, India and South East Asia, pp. 15–16; Ganganath Jha, ‘India’s Sectoral Partnership with ASEAN’, The Indonesian Quarterly, Vol. XX, No. 3, third quarter, 1992, pp. 3047; Reuters News Service, 10 January 1994 (ref: 000388539747).
Discussion with a very senior Singaporean official, December 1993.
‘India, Thailand to step up trade’, Hindustan Times, 26 May 1989, p. 16.
‘India Club’, Far Eastern Economic Review, 22 April 1993, p. 9.
Richard Valladares, ‘Rao visit to minimise “threat” of PRC presence in Burma’, Bangkok Post, 10 April 1993; David I. Steinberg, ‘Myanmar as Nexus: Sino-Indian Rivalries on the Frontier’, Terrorism, Vol. 16, 1993, p. 3.
Rodney Tasker, ‘Rao’s Look-East Policy’, Far Eastern Economic Review, 22 April 1993, p. 16.
As already noted, there is an element of a desire to balance China economically in the behaviour of Singapore.
There is also a strip known as the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ in the westernsector.
Noor A. Hussain, India’s Regional Policy: Strategic and Security Dimensions’, in S. Cohen (Ed.), The Security of South Asia, American and Asian Perspectives, University of Illinois Press, Urbana, C. 1987, p. 31.
See Gary Klintworth, India’s China War: A Question of Confidence, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Working Paper No. 124, Canberra, 1987, pp. 5–6.
This message was evident even as early as Gorbachev’s 1986 New Delhi visit. See Gregory Austin, ‘Soviet Perspectives on India’s Developing Security Posture’, in R. Babbage and S. Gordon (Eds), India’s Strategic Future, p. 144; Surjit Mansingh and Steven I. Levine, ‘China and India: Moving Beyond Confrontation’, Problems of Communism, Vol. XXXVIII, March-June 1989, p. 40.
Selig S. Harrison and Geoffrey Kemp, India and America After the Cold War, The Carnegie Endowment, Washington DC, 1993, p. 10.
Aluned Rashid, The Telegraph (London), as in Reuters News Service, 4 January 1994 (ref: 000385364215).
For the point about surveillance see Manoj Joshi, ‘Shy hands across the Himalayas’, Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, April-May 1993, p. 15. For the estimate of post-reduction force levels see interview with Jasjit Singh, BBC monitoring service, 10 September 1993 (ref: 000324542697).
Foreign Broadcasting Information Service, Daily Report for South/Southwest Asia, 3 January 1990, p. 63.
S.P. Seth, ‘China and India shuffle closer but rifts remain’, Canberra Times, 9 January 1992.
Manoj Joshi, ‘The Communique’, Frontline, 3 January 1992, p. 10.
Raju Gopalakrishnan, ‘Indian Premier Denies Talks with China OneSided’, Reuter Textline, 16 December 1991.
Mansingh and Levine, ‘China and India: Moving Beyond Confrontation’, p. 37.
Sumit Ganguly, ‘South Asia Atter the Cold War’, The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 1992, p. 179.
lnder Malhotra, ‘lndia, China and the Real World’, Times of India, 28 May 1992.
Sumit Ganguly, ‘South Asia After the Cold War’, p. 179.
Prem Shankar Jha, ‘Stagnation and Sovereignty’, The Hindu, 15 July 1992.
Although Singh’s budget speech did not specifically refer to China, he seemed to have China strongly in mind. For the relevant extract see Hamish McDonald and Jaya Sarkar, ‘India: The Money Juggernaut,’ Far Eastern Economic Review, 11 March 1993, p. 16.
For one view on this see M.V. Bratersky and S.I. Lunyov, ‘India at the End of the Century: Transformation into an Asian Regional power’, p. 932. The 1988–89 Annual Report of the Ministry of Defence (which also would have been written in 1990) gives a somewhat more pessimistic view of Sino-Indian relations, pointing to China’s continuing military modernisation (p. 4). In 1991, a senior military commander in charge of troops stationed on the Himalayan frontier that were evidently being ‘thinned out’, questioned strongly the policies of his superiors in New Delhi toward China. See Kanwar Sandhu, ‘Confusion in Command’, India Today, 15 April 1993, p. 148.
For the 50% figure see Desmond Ball, ‘China’s Disturbing Arms Build-Up’, The Independent Monthly (Australia), February 1993, p. 23.
There has been a good deal of press publicity surrounding these activities by China, at least some of it speculative. For a more careful view see Gerald Segal, ‘Russia and the Chinas—New Risks’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, September 1992, pp. 416–7. See also Tai Ming Cheung, ‘Sukhois, Sams, Subs’, Far Eastern Economic Review, 8 April 1993.
Douglas Jehl, ‘China linked to missile sale’, The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 May 1993. p. 9 (from The New York Times). See also Carol Giacomo, ‘USA: US to warn China of possible sanctions’, Reuters News Service, (ref: 000297324395), 20 July 1993. China claims the M-11 does not come within the provisions of the MTCR. In January 1993, however, the treaty was extended to cover missiles similar to the M-11.
R.S. Norris, A.S. Burrows and Richard rieldhouse, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume V, British, French and Chinese Nuclear Weapons, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1994, p. 325 andp. 359.
Yan Kong and Tim McCarthy, ‘China’s Missile Bureaucracy’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, January 1993, p. 41.
China’s response to the five power conference proposal was that it stood in relationship to the South Asian players in exactly the same relationship as the US and Russia, and that therefore, while it could act as guarantor for any outcomes, those outcomes would be tied strictly to South Asia and would not apply to China.
This position was suggested by the fact that the Chinese delegation did not appear to be especially well linked into the policy apparatus. See Jeremy J. Stone, Journal of the Federation of American Scientists, Vol. 47, No. 2, March/April 1994, p. 6.
The information about the private Indian protest comes from a confidential source. I am indebted to Professor Desmond Ball for the interpretation of China’s considerations in testing while Venkataram was in Beijing.
Stone, Journal of the FAS, March/April 1994, p. 1.
Quoted in Edward Desmond, ‘South Asia: The Nuclear Shadow’, Time, 27 January 1992, p. 19.
Robert Karniol, ‘Chinese puzzle over Burma’s SIGINT base’, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 29 January 1994, p. 14.
The more recent of this spate of rumours seems to have originated from the Japanese Kyodo news agency and to have been picked up from there by the US newspaper, The Estimate, and from there to have been reported widely in a number of military magazines. For the Kyodo report, see Reuters news service, 18 September 1992, ‘China: Govt allegedly helping Burma to build naval base’. For the Estimate report see ‘Is China Building an Indian Ocean Base?’, The Estimate, 25 September-8 October 1992, p. 2. Edward Neilan, citing Indian intelligence sources, also picked up the story in the San Francisco Chronicle on 27 February 1993. For the reference to Chinese assistance at Thiwala see Richard Valladnres, ‘Rao visit to minimise “threat” of PRC presence in Burma’, Bangkok Post, 10 April 1993. Information available to the author suggests that the lower valuation on the arms transfers is the more accurate one.
Quoted in Ganganath Jha, ‘ I ndia’s Sectoral P artnership with A S EAN ’, TheIndonesian Quarterly, Vol. XX, No. 3, third quarter, 1992, p. 303 and f.n. 12. T wo newspaper reports, identical in detail, both sourced from ‘ A sian N ews I nternational’, R angoon, were run inthe (Indian) Observer (3 May 1993) and the Hindustan Times (1 May 1993).
‘China’s plan to build up navy’, Hindustan Times, 13 January 1993.
‘India protests to Myanmar’, The Hindu, 26 January 1992.
For the role of the military in promoting concern about Myanmar see Dinesh Kumar, ‘Sino-Myanmar ties irk Delhi’, The Times of India, 20 November 1992. See also commentary on the Ministry of Defence, Annual Report 1989–90, as in ‘Growing Security Fears’, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 26 May 1990, p. 1027.
I am indebted to William Ashton, a knowledgeable and well-placed observer of Burmese affairs for topographical and oceanographic information on the two islands and for some of the interpretation of China’s role in Myamnar.
Ashton.
Manoj Joshi, ‘Sino-Indian Detente’, Times of India, 7 September 1993.
Japan Economic Research Institute, The Liberalization of India’s Economy and Japan’s Contribution, Tokyo, 1993, p. 15.
For a good account of the Suzuki-Maniti venture see Raja Venkataramani, Japan Enters Indian Industry: The Maruti-Suzuki Joint Venture, Radiant Publishers, New Delhi, 1990.
Kamalendra Kanwar, ‘Winds of Change’, in Kamlendra Kanwar (Ed.), India-Japan: Towards a New Era, UBS Publishers, New Delhi, 1992, un-numbered Tables on page 9.
See for example, ‘Japan may give green signal by year-end’, by Subir Roy, Times of India, 1 February 1992.
‘Japanese wary of local lobbies’, Times ofIndia, 20 November 1992.
James Clad, ‘Patience Sorely Tested’, Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 January 1991, p. 42.
A. Madhavan, ‘The Post-Cold War Equations’, in Kanwar (Ed.), India-Japan: Towards a New Era, p. 51.
This was mentioned specifically in the Fukukawa report. See The Liberalization ofIndia’s Economy and Japan’s Contribution, p. 12.
The Liberalization of India’s Economy and Japan’s Contribution, p. 15.
Manoj Joshi, Reaching out to Japan’, Frontline, 17 July 1992, p. 16;C. Raja Mohan, ‘NPT: A Japanese Proposal’, The Hindu, 13 August 1992.
Madhavan, ‘The Post-Cold War Equations’, p. 53.
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Gordon, S. (1995). India ‘ looks East’. In: India’s Rise to Power. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230371804_14
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