Economic Progress (Onward If Not Upward)

Abstract

Japan, the land of the rising sun, seems also to be the land of the rising economy, the land of eternally dynamic growth, the land of ever onward and upward. It is hard to open a book or newspaper without getting extravagant appraisals of Japan’s growth potential. One of the most famous was issued by futurologist Herman Kahn back in 1970. 44It seems to me at least as likely as not that by 1975 the Japanese—and most of the outside world—will be expecting Japan to enjoy another twenty-five years of much the same growth rates. Or even if by 1975 the Japanese—or others—no longer expect Japan to match the greater than 10% per annum growth rates of the 1950–75 time period, they almost certainly will expect close to 10% and substantially more than the ‘usual’ 5% or s o . . . . “ 1