The dangers of forecasting

Abstract

It is always interesting, when speculating on the future in areas such as the world of work, health provision or climate change, to examine the success of past prognosticators. Indeed, the whole process of predicting future trends, even based on sound empirical sources, is inherently difficult, given that quite unexpected and novel occurrences (inventions, wars, economic crises) with substantial and wide-ranging effects can upset the most reasonable, rational forecasts. Many forecasts have been wrong: the 20-hour week, the paperless office, the leisure economy, to name but a few contemporary predictions.