The Election in Context

Abstract

Three years ago, in his assessment of the implications of the 2007 election, Ken Carty noted that one of the most basic questions asked by analysts about an election outcome is whether it was marked by continuity or change.¹ The answer for the 2007 election was clearly continuity, although, as Carty also noted, it was a continuity that was achieved on a very insecure and shifting foundation. The answer for 2011 is clearly change — an enormous change by any standard, as we shall see below, but, perhaps paradoxically, a change that might eventually be reversed, and that might not have done very much to disturb the fundamentals. In 2007, analysts expected change and got continuity, even though the continuity was fragile. In 2011, they expected change and got change, even though in some crucial respects the outcome was not that different from what had been experienced in earlier momentous contests. This chapter will first look at the evidence and implications of this electoral change, and will show that the scale of the shift in Ireland in 2011 was exceptional even by comparative standards. The chapter then goes on to discuss the problems now faced by many party systems, including that of Ireland, in seeking to reconcile the preferences of the voters with the constraints imposed by external actors and institutions. These problems, which were brought into sharp relief in the 2011 election, have major implications for the legitimacy of the electoral process.