Summary

Abstract

As we saw in Chapter 1, many organizations do not see the value of scenario analysis: they view the future as an extrapolation of the past, and so continue with business-as-usual. Other organizations do sense that the future holds threats and opportunities, but can become caught in the psychological defense of a failing strategy — by procrastination, bolstering and buck-passing, as we saw in Chapter 9. Scenario thinking can help individuals think more broadly about the nature of the future and, in this book, we have presented a step-by-step approach to scenario thinking that will enable you to implement the intuitive logics scenario method without the aid of an external facilitator. Our approach has been decision-focused, in that the scenarios built by our method are immediately relevant to a focal issue facing an organization.