Skip to main content

Logic, Empiricism and Probability Structures

  • Chapter
Fundamental Uncertainty

Abstract

One1 of the great and influential events of Keynes’s youth was the publication of Whitehead and Russell’s Principia Mathematica (Whitehead and Russell, 1910–1913). Keynes was enormously impressed by this work, and to some extent took it as the inspiration for A Treatise on Probability (TP) (Keynes, 1973 [1921]). To some extent only, because Keynes clearly rejected the atomism and some of the empiricism associated with Russell’s philosophy of science. Nevertheless he never became a subjectivist with regard to probability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Bateman, B. W. (1987), ‘Keynes’s Changing Conception of Probability,’ Economics and Philosophy, 3 (1), pp. 97–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carabelli, A. (1988), On Keynes’s Method, London: Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Carnap, R. (1968), ‘Inductive Logic and Inductive Intuition,’ in I. Lakatos (ed.), The Problem of Inductive Logic, Amsterdam: North Holland, pp. 258–67.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Carroll, L. (1895), ‘What the Tortoise said to Achilles,’ Mind (new series), 4 (14), pp. 278–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Finetti, B. (1964), ‘Foresight: Its Logical Laws: Its Subjective Sources,’ in H. E. Kyburg and H. Smokler (eds), Studies in Subjective Probability, New York: Wiley, pp. 93–158.

    Google Scholar 

  • — (1937), ‘La prévision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives,’ Annales de I’Institute Henri Poincaré, 7, pp. 1–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellis, R. L. (1844), ‘On the Foundations of the Theory of Probabilities,’ Transactions of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 8, pp. 1–6. (Also in R. L. Ellis, The Mathematical and Other Writings of Robert Leslie Ellis, Cambridge: Deighton, 1863, pp. 1–11).

    Google Scholar 

  • Fagin, R. and Halpern, J. Y. (1988), ‘Reasoning about Knowledge and Probability,’ in M. Y. Vardi (ed.), Second Conference on Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning about Knowledge, Los Altos, California: Morgan Kaufmann, pp. 277–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Good, I. J. (1950), Probability and the Weighing of Evidence, London: C. Griffin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hempel, C. G. (1962), ‘Deductive-Nomological vs Statistical Explanation,’ in H. Feigl (ed.), Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science III, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, pp. 98–169.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howson, C. and Urbach, P. (1993), Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, LaSalle Ill.: Open Court.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeffreys, H. (1954–55), ‘The Present Position in Probability Theory,’ British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 5 (20), pp. 275–89.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. 1972 (1933), ‘Ramsey as a Philosopher,’ in Essays in Biography, vol. X of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, London: Macmillan, pp. 336–9. (Originally published in The New Statesman and Nation, 3 October 1931.)

    Google Scholar 

  • — (1973 [1921]), A Treatise on Probability, vol. VIII of The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koopman, B. O. (1940a), ‘The Axioms and Algebra of Intuitive Probability,’ Annals of Mathematics (second series), 41 (2), pp. 269–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — (1940b), ‘The Bases of Probability,’ Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 46 (10), pp. 763–74.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — (1941), ‘Intuitive Probabilities and Sequences,’ Annals of Mathematics (second series), 42 (1), pp. 169–87.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kyburg, H. E., Jr. (1961), Probability and the Logic of Rational Belief, Middletown: Wesleyan University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • — (2003), ‘Are There Degrees of Belief?,’ Journal of Applied Logic, 1 (3–4), pp. 139–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • — and Man Teng, C. (2001), Uncertain Inference, New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Levi, I. (1986), ‘The Paradoxes of Allais and Ellsberg’, Economics and Philosophy, 2(1, April), pp. 23–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, C. G. (1998), ‘Non-monotonic Logic is Impossible,’ Canadian Artificial Intelligence Magazine, 42, pp. 18–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • — (2000), ‘The Nature of Nonmonotonic Reasoning’, Minds and Machines, 10 (3), pp. 321–60.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Donnell, R. (1989), Keynes: Philosophy, Economics and Politics, London: Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, F. P. (1922), ‘Mr. Keynes on Probability,’ The Cambridge Magazine, 11 (1), pp. 3–5.

    Google Scholar 

  • — (1931), The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Essay, New York: Humanities Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Runde, J. (1994), ‘Keynes after Ramsey: In Defence of A Treatise on Probability,’ Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 25, pp. 97–121.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L. J. (1972), The Foundations of Statistics (2nd edn). New York, Dover Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skidelsky, R. (1983), John Maynard Keynes. Vol. I: ‘Hopes Betrayed1883–1920’, London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, C. A. B. (1961), ‘Consistency in Statistical Inference and Decision,’ Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 23, pp. 1–37.

    Google Scholar 

  • — (1965), ‘Personal Probability and Statistical Analysis,’ Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 128, pp. 469–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Venn, J. (1866), The Logic of Chance, Macmillan: London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Whitehead, A. N. and Russell, B. (1910–1913), Principia Mathematica, 3 vols, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Copyright information

© 2011 Henry E. Kyburg, Jr.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kyburg, H.E. (2011). Logic, Empiricism and Probability Structures. In: Brandolini, S.M.D., Scazzieri, R. (eds) Fundamental Uncertainty. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230305687_2

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics