Scenarios for the Quality of Life in the Europe of the Future

Abstract

Scenario analysis is a method used to project hypothetical futures based on the perceptions of social agents who are highly experienced in the relevant field. It is thus a more useful method than simply making predictions because it has a firm theoretical and methodological basis. Scenarios are used in various social sciences to forecast potential futures in the light of given contextual situations, which may be broad or more limited in scope. The method is especially appropriate when looking at complex problems that evolve over long periods of time and are characterized by their uncertainty. Well-known examples include corporate management studies, in which organizations use scenarios to determine their strategic direction and to modulate and adjust their medium- and long-term plans (Van der Heijden, 2005). Another example is urban planning, which uses this method to weigh up urban development and design plans intended to combat urban stagnation, social segregation or uncontrolled growth, as well as more broadly to manage city space appropriately (Wilkinson et al., 2008).