Evidence on the Link between Migration, Climate Shocks, and Adaptive Capacity

Abstract

Is it possible to establish a direct link between migration and climate events? Community and household characteristics, such as property and assets, are a manifestation of people’s resilience toward different exogenous stimulus. Environment and climate stimulus, such as a climate disaster, may affect the set of options available to households to cope with them, and therefore it may affect their willingness or ability to migrate. However, in this reasoning, two questions need to be addressed. First, once we separate the capacity to adapt to hazard situations and the exposure to that hazard, is it still possible to find a significant link between exposure and migration? Second, even if it is possible to find such a link, how would households exposed to the shock and with different adaptive capacity decide on migration? Migration has both costs and benefits, and therefore it is not straightforward to anticipate which people are most likely to choose to move: the ones hardest hit by the event who may have higher incentive to migrate, or the ones less hit who may afford the costs of moving? In this study, we look at empirical evidence to answer these questions. The challenge is addressed in the context of Nicaragua, before and after the occurrence of Hurricane Mitch at the end of October 1998. For such, we use panel data for 1998 and 2001, from the household surveys Living Standards Measurement Study, LSMS (World Bank, 1998 and 2001).