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Economic Cycles: Asymmetries, Persistence, and Synchronization

  • Chapter
Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics

Abstract

Marking upswings and downswings for a time series {y t } provides insights that are not immediately obvious, but may be meaningful to academics, policy makers, and the general public. The mean and standard deviation of durations, as well as the amplitude and steepness of a given phase, yield fruitful insights about cycle asymmetries and persistence. Expansions and contractions in one series can then be compared to those in another to determine whether their respective cycles are synchronized. However, our primary focus here is on classical nonparametric methods for the analysis of duration, dating back to the seminal work of Burns and Mitchell (1946), Cutler and Ederer (1958), Bry and Boschan (1971), and Cox (1972). Although our specific application is to unemployment cycles, the ideas and techniques discussed in this chapter apply to a wide variety of micro- and macroeconometric studies.

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Authors
  1. Joe Cardinale
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  2. Larry W. Taylor
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Loughborough University, UK

    Terence C. Mills (Professor of Applied Statistics and Econometrics) (Professor of Applied Statistics and Econometrics)

  2. University of Reading, UK

    Kerry Patterson (Professor of Econometric) (Professor of Econometric)

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© 2009 Joe Cardinale and Larry W. Taylor

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Cardinale, J., Taylor, L.W. (2009). Economic Cycles: Asymmetries, Persistence, and Synchronization. In: Mills, T.C., Patterson, K. (eds) Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230244405_7

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