Abstract
We provide a selective overview of the econometric methods employed in modeling some of the key relationships which determine the behavior of exchange rates and the efficacy of models employed to forecast them.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Abadir, K. and G. Talmain (2006) Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series. Mimeo, University of York.
Abhyankar, A., L. Sarno and G. Valente (2005) Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability. Journal of International Economics 66, 325–48.
Acosta, F. and C. Granger (1995) A linearity test for near for near-unit root time series. Discussion Paper No. 95-12, Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego.
Andrews, D. (1991) Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation. Econometrica 59, 817–58.
Bacchetta, P. and E. van Wincoop (2004) A scapegoat model of exchange-rate fluctuations. American Economic Review 94, 114–18.
Backus, D., A. Gregory and C. Telmer (1993) Accounting for forward rates in matrkets for foreign currency. Journal of Finance 48, 1887–908.
Backus, D. and G. Smith (1993) Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods. Journal of International Economics 35, 297–316.
Baillie, R. and T. Bollerslev (1990) Amultivariate generalized ARCH approach to modelling risk premia in forward foreign exchange markets. Journal of International Money and Finance 9, 309–24.
Baillie, R. and T. Bollerslev (1994) The long-memory of the forward premium. Journal of International Money and Finance 13, 309–24.
Baillie, R. and T. Bollerslev (2000) The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think. Journal of International Money and Finance 19, 471–88.
Baillie, R. and G. Kapetanios (2005) Testing for neglected nonlinearity in long memory models. Working Paper 528, Queen Mary, University of London.
Baillie, R. and G. Kapetanios (2006) Non-linear models with strongly dependent processes and applications to forward premia and real exchange rates. Working Paper 570, Queen Mary, University of London.
Baillie, R. and R. Kiliç (2006) Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly? Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 22–47.
Balassa, B. (1964) The purchasing power parity doctrine: a reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy 72, 584–96.
Balke, N. and T. Fomby (1997) Threshold cointegration. International Economic Review 38, 627–46.
Balke, N. and M. Wohar (1998) Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest parity. Empirical Economics 23, 535–59.
Basci, E. and M. Caner (2005) Are real exchanges rates nonlinear or nonstationary? Evidence from a new threshold unit root test. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 9, Article 2.
Bassett, G. and R. Koenker (1978) Asymptotic theory of least absolute error regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 363, 618–22.
Bauer, C., P. De Grauwe and S. Reitz (2007) Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone — a heterogeneous expectations approach. Mimeo, Deutsche Bundesbank, No. 11.
Baum, C., J. Barkoulas and M. Caglayan (2001) Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era. Journal of International Money and Finance 20, 379–99.
Baxter, M. (1994) Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: have we missed the business cycle relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics 33, 5–37.
Bekaert, G. and S. Gray (1998) Target zones and exchange rates: an empirical investigation. Journal of International Economics 45, 1–35.
Bekaert, G. and R. Hodrick (1993) On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums. Journal of International Money and Finance 12, 115–38.
Beran, J. (1995) Maximum likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter for invertible short and long memory autoregressive integrated moving average models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 57, 659–72.
Berben, R.-P. and D. van Dijk (1998) Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions? Econometric Institute Report 145, Erasmus University, Rotterdam.
Berka, M. (2002) General equilibrium model of arbitrage trade and real exchange rate persistence. Mimeo, University of British Columbia.
Berkowitz, J. and L. Giorgianni (2001) Long-horizon exchange rate predictability. Review of Economics and Statistics 83, 81–91.
Bertola, G. and L. Svensson (1993) Stochastic devaluation risk and the empirical fit of target-zone models. Review of Economic Studies 60, 689–712.
Bidarkota, P. and B. Dupoyet (2007) Intrinsic bubbles and fat tails in stock prices. A note. Macroeconomic Dynamics 3, 405–22.
Blanchard, O. and M. Watson (1982) Bubbles, rational expectations, and financial markets. In P. Wachter (ed.), Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure, pp. 295–315. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books,
Bleaney, M., S. Leybourne and P. Mizen (1999) Mean reversion of real exchange rates in high-inflation countries. Southern Economic Journal 65, 839–54.
Breitung, J. (2001) Rank tests for nonlinear cointegration. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19, 331–40.
Burda, M. and S. Gerlach (1993) Exchange rate dynamics and currency unification: the Ostmark-DM rate. Empirical Economics 18, 417–29.
Byers, J. and D. Peel (1996) Long-memory risk premia in exchange rates. Manchester School 64, 421–38.
Campa, J. and L. Goldberg (2002) Exchange rates pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro-phenomenon? NBER Working Paper 8934.
Caner, M. and B. Hansen (2001) Threshold autoregression with a unit root. Econometrica 69, 1555–96.
Caner, M. and L. Kilian (2001) Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate. Journal of International Money and Finance 20, 639–57.
Canjels, E., G. Prakash-Canjels and A. Taylor (2004) Measuring market integration, foreign exchange arbitrage and the gold standard, 1879–1913. NBER Working Paper 10583.
Chao, J., V. Corradi and N. Swanson (2001) Out-of-sample tests for Granger causality. Macroeconomic Dynamics 5, 598–620.
Cheung, Y.-W. and M. Chinn (2001) Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market. Journal of International Money and Finance 20, 439–71.
Chinn, M. and R. Meese (1995) Banking on currency forecasts: how predictable is change in money? Journal of International Economics 38, 161–78.
Chung, C.-S. and G. Tauchen (2001) Testing target-zone models using efficient method of moments. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19, 255–69.
Clarida, R., L. Sarno, M. Taylor and G. Valente (2003) The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond. Journal of International Economics 60, 61–83.
Clarida, R. and M. Taylor (1997) The term structure of forward exchange premiums and the forecastability of spot exchange rates: correcting the errors. Review of Economics and Statistics 79, 353–61.
Clark, T. and M. McCracken (2001) Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models. Journal of Econometrics 105, 85–110.
Clark, T. and M. McCracken (2003) Evaluating long horizon forecasts. Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and University of Missouri — Columbia.
Clark, T. and M. McCracken (2005) The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks. Journal of Econometrics 124, 1–31.
Coakley, J. and A. Fuertes (2001) Rethinking the forward premium puzzle in a nonlinear framework. Mimeo, University of Warwick.
Copeland, L. and S. Heravi (2006) Structural breaks in the real exchange rate adjustment mechanism. Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/21.
Dacco, R. and S. Satchell (1999) Why do regime-switching models forecast so badly? Journal of Forecasting 18, 1–16.
Davidson, A. and D. Hinkley (1997) Bootstrap Methods and their Application. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Davidson, R. and E. Flachaire (2001) The wild bootstrap, tamed at last. Queen’s Institute for Economic Research Working Paper No. 1000.
Davidson, R. and J. MacKinnon (1993) Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Davies, R. (1977) Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Biometrika 64, 179–90.
De Grauwe, P., H. Dewachter and M. Embrechts (1993) Exchange Rate Theory Chaotic Models of Foreign Exchange Markets. Oxford: Blackwell.
De Grauwe, F. and I. Vansteenkiste (2001) Exchange rates and fundamentals. CESifo Discussion Papers No. 577, Munich.
De Jong, R., C.-H. Wang and Y. Bae (2007) Correlation robust threshold unit root tests. Working Paper, Department of Economics, Ohio State University.
Diba, B. and H. Grossman (1988) Explosive rational bubbles in stock prices. American Economic Review 78, 520–30.
Diebold, F., S. Husted and M. Rush (1991) Real exchange rates under the gold standard. Journal of Political Economy 99, 1252–71.
Diebold, F. and A. Inoue (2001) Long memory and regime switching. Journal of Econometrics 105, 131–59.
Diebold, F. and R. Mariano (1995) Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13, 253–63.
Drost, F. and T. Nijman (1993) Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes. Econometrica 4, 909–27.
Duarte, A., I. Venetis and I. Paya (2005) Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro-area using the yield spread. International Journal of Forecasting 21, 261–77.
Duffie, D. and K. Singleton (1993) Simulated moments estimation of Markov models of asset prices. Econometrica 61, 929–52.
Dumas, B. (1992) Dynamic equilibrium and the real exchange rate in spatially separated world. Review of Financial Studies 5, 153–80.
Dwyer, G., P. Locke and W. Yu (1996) Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash. Review of Financial Studies 9, 301–32.
Einzig, P. (1937) The Theory of Forward Exchange. London: Macmillan.
Eitrheim, Ø. and T. Teräsvirta (1996) Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models. Journal of Econometrics 74, 59–75.
Enders, W. and C. Granger (1998) Unit root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16, 304–11.
Engel, C. and J. Hamilton (1990) Long swings in the dollar: are they in the data and do markets know it? American Economic Review 80, 689–713.
Engel, C., N. Mark and K. West (2007) Exchange rate models are not as bad as you think. NBER Working Paper 13318.
Engel, C. and K. West (2005) Exchange rates and fundamentals. Journal of Political Economy 133, 485–517.
Engle, R. (1982) Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica 50, 987–1007.
Escribano, A. and O. Jordá (1999) Improved testing and specification of smooth transition regression models. In P. Rothman (ed.), Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Evans, G. (1986) A test for speculative bubbles in the sterling-dollar exchange rate: 1981–84. American Economic Review 76, 621–36.
Evans, G. (1991) Pitfalls in testing for explosive bubbles in asset prices. American Economic Review 81, 922–30.
Evans, M. and K. Lewis (1995) Do long-term swings in the dollar affect estimates of the risk premia? Review of Financial Studies 3, 709–42.
Evans, M. and R. Lyons (2005) Meese-Rogoff redux: micro-based exchange rate forecasting. American Economic Review 95, 405–14.
Fair, R. (1970) The estimation of simultaneous equation models with lagged endogenous variables and first order serially correlated errors. Econometrica 38, 507–16.
Fama, E.F. (1984) Forward and spot exchange rates. Journal of Monetary Economics 14, 319–38.
Faust, J., J. Rogers and J. Wright (2003) Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we’ve really made. Journal of International Economics 60, 35–59.
Ferson, W., S. Sarkissian and T. Simin (2003) Spurious regressions in financial economics? Journal of Finance 58, 1393–414.
Flandreau, M. and T. Komlos (2003) Target zones in history and theory: lessons from an Austro Hungarian experiment (1896–1914). Mimeo, University of Munich.
Flood, R. and P. Garber (1983) A model of stochastic process switching. Econometrica 3, 537–51.
Floor, R. and A. Rose (1996) Fixes: of the forward discount puzzle. Review of Economics and Statistics 4, 748–52.
Frankel, J. (1979) On the mark: a theory of floating exchange rate based on real interest differentials. American Economic Review 69, 610–22.
Frankel, J. (1996) How well do foreign exchange markets work: might a tobin tax help? In M. ul Haq, I. Kaul and I. Grunberg (eds.), The Tobin Tax: Coping with Financial Volatility. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Frankel, J. and K. Froot (1987) Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations. American Economic Review 1, 133–53.
Frankel, J. and A. Rose (1996) A panel project on purchasing power parity: mean reversion within and between countries. Journal of International Economics 40, 209–24.
Frömmel, M., R. MacDonald and L. Menkhoff (2005) Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model. Economic Modelling 22, 485–502.
Froot, K. and M. Obstfeld (1991) Intrinsic bubbles: the case of stock prices. American Economic Review 81, 1189–214.
Gallant, A., P. Rossi and G. Tauchen (1993) Nonlinear dynamic structures. Econometrica 61, 871–908.
Gallant, A. and G. Tauchen (1996) Which moments to match? Econometric Theory 12, 65–81.
Gallant, A. and G. Tauchen (2000) EMM: a program for effcient method of moments estimation. Technical Report, Duke University.
Gonçalves, S. and L. Kilian (2003) Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. CIRANO Working Paper 2003s–17.
Granger, C. (1980) Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 14, 227–38.
Granger, C. and N. Hyung (2004) Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns. Journal of Empirical Finance 11, 399–421.
Granger, C. and R. Joyeux (1980) An introduction to long memory time series models and fractional differencing. Journal of Time Series Analysis 1, 15–29.
Granger, C. and P. Newbold (1974) Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2, 111–20.
Granger, C. and T. Teräsvirta (1993) Modelling Nonlinear Economic Relationships. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Granger, C. and T. Teräsvirta (1999) A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties. Economics Letters 62, 161–5.
Groen, J. (2000) The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon. Journal of International Economics 52, 299–319.
Groen, J.(2005) Exchange rate predictability and monetary fundamentals in a small multi-country panel. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37, 495–516.
Groen, J. and F. Kleibergen (2003) Likelihood-based cointegration analysis in panels of vector error correction models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 21, 295–318.
Gurkaynak, R. (2005) Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Division of Monetary Affairs Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Hai, W., N. Mark and Y. Wu (1997) Understanding spot and forward exchange rate regressions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 12, 715–36.
Hamilton, J. (1990) Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime. Journal of Econometrics 45, 39–70.
Hamilton, J. (1994) Time Series Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Hansen, B. (1997) Inference in tar models. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 2, 1–14.
Hansen, L. (1982) Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029–54.
Hansen, L. and R. Hodrick (1980) Forward exchange rates as optimal predictors of future spot rates: an econometric analysis. Journal of Political Economy 5, 829–53.
Harris, D., B. McCabe and S. Leybourne (2003) Some limit theory for autocovariances whose order depend on sample size. Econometric Theory 19, 829–64.
Harvey, D. and S. Leybourne (2007) Testing for time series linearity. Econometrics Journal 10, 149–65.
Harvey, D., S. Leybourne and P. Newbold (1998) Tests for forecast encompassing. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16, 254–59.
Haug, A. and S. Basher (2005) Unit roots, nonlinear cointegration and purchasing power parity. Econometrics 0401006, EconWPA.
Hegwood, N. and D. Papell (2002) Purchasing power parity under the gold standard. Southern Economic Journal 69, 72–91.
Hodrick, R. (1987) The Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of the Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Market. London: Harwood.
Hodrick, R. (1989) Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates. Journal of Monetary Economics 23, 433–59.
Horvath, M. and M. Watson (1995) Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are prespecified. Econometric Theory 11, 984–1014.
Huisman, R., K. Koedijk, J. Clemens and F. Kool (2001) Tail-index estimates in small samples. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19, 208–16.
Iannizzotto, M. and M. Taylor (1999) The target zone model, non-linearity and mean reversion: is the honeymoon really over? Economic Journal 109, C96–110.
Kapetanios, G. (1999) Model selection in threshold models. Journal of Time Series Analysis 22, 733–54.
Kapetanios, G., Y. Shin and A. Snell (2003a) Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics 112, 359–79.
Kapetanios, G., Y. Shin and A. Snell (2003b) Testing for cointegration in nonlinear STAR error correction models. Working Paper No. 497, Queen Mary, University of London.
Keynes, J. (1923) A Tract on Monetary Reform. London: Macmillan.
Kilian, L. (1999) Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: what do we learn from long-horizon regressions? Journal of Applied Econometrics 14, 491–510.
Kiliç, R. (2003) A testing procedure for a unit root in the STAR model. Working Paper, School of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology.
Kim, C.-J. and C. Nelson (1999) State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs Sampling Approaches with Applications. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Koedijk, K., M. Schafgans and C. De Vries (1990) The tail index of exchange rate returns. Journal of International Economics 29, 93–108.
Koop, G., H. Pesaran and S. Potter (1996) Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models. Journal of Econometrics 74, 119–47.
Krugman, P. (1991) Target zones and exchange rate dynamics. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 669–82.
Kwiatkowski, D., P. Phillips, P. Schmidt and Y. Shin (1992) Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics 54, 159–78.
Lee, B. and B. Ingram (1991) Simulation estimation of time-series models. Journal of Econometrics 47, 197–205.
Lee, H.-Y. and S.-L. Chen (2006) Why use Markov-switching models in exchange rate prediction? Economic Modelling 23, 662–8.
Leon, H., L. Sarno and G. Valente (2003) Limits to speculation and nonlinearity in deviations from uncovered interest parity: empirical evidence and implications for the forward bias puzzle. Mimeo, IMF.
Leybourne, S. and B. McCabe (1994) A consistent test for a unit root. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 157–66.
Leybourne, S., B. McCabe and A. Tremayne (1996) Can economic time series be differenced to stationarity. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 14, 435–46.
Liu, R. (1988) Bootstrap procedure under some non i.i.d. models. Annals of Statistics 16, 1696–708.
Loretan, M. and P. Phillips (1994) Testing the covariance structure of heavy-tailed time series. Journal of Empirical Finance 1, 211–48.
Lothian, J. (1997) Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float. Journal of International Money and Finance 16, 19–35.
Lothian, J. and M. Taylor (1996) Real exchange rate behaviour: the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries. Journal of Political Economy 104, 488–509.
Lothian, J. and M. Taylor (2000) Purchasing power parity over two centuries: strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability: a reply to Cuddington and Liang. Journal of International Money and Finance 19, 759–64.
Lucas, R. (1982) Interest rates and currency price in a two-country world. Journal of Monetary Economics 10, 335–59.
Lundbergh, S. and T. Teräsvirta (1998) Modelling economic high frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models. Stockholm School of Economics, Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance No. 291.
Lundbergh, S. and T. Teräsvirta (2006) A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications. Journal of Econometrics 131, 579–609.
Luukkonen, R., P. Saikkonen and T. Teräsvirta (1988) Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive model. Biometrika 75, 491–99.
Lux, T. and D. Sornette (2002) On rational bubbles and fat tails. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 34, 589–610.
Lyons, R. (2001) The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
MacDonald, R. (1993) Long-run purchasing power parity: is it for real? Review of Economics and Statistics 75, 690–5.
MacDonald, R. and M. Taylor (1994) The monetary model of the exchange rate: longrun relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk. Journal of International Money and Finance 13, 276–90.
MacKinnon, J. and H. White (1985) Some heteroskedasticity consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics 29, 305–25.
Mammen, E. (1993). Bootstrap and wild bootstrap for high dimensional linear models. Annals of Statistics 21, 255–85.
Mark, N. (1990) Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run. Journal of International Economics 28, 115–36.
Mark, N. (1995) Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on long-horizon predictability. American Economic Review 85, 201–18.
Mark, N. and D. Sul (2001) Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: evidence from a small post-Bretton Woods panel. Journal of International Economics 53, 29–52.
Maynard, A. and P. Phillips (2001) Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly. Journal of Applied Econometrics 6, 671–708.
McCallum, B. (1994) A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics 33, 105–32.
McCracken, M. (1999) Asymptotics for out-of-sample tests of causality. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
McCracken, M. and S. Sapp (2005) Evaluating the predictability of exchange rates using long-horizon regressions: mind your p’s and q’s! Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37, 473–94.
Meese, R. (1986) Testing for bubbles in exchange markets: a case of sparkling rates? Journal of Political Economy 94, 345–73.
Meese, R. and K. Rogoff (1983a) Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: do they fit out of sample? Journal of International Economics 14, 3–24.
Meese, R. and K. Rogoff (1983b) The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models: sampling error or misspecification? In J. Frenkel (ed.), Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Meese, R. and A.K. Rose (1990) Nonlinear, nonparametric, nonessential exchange rate estimation. American Economic Review 80, 192–96.
Michael, P., A. Nobay and D. Peel (1997) Transactions costs and nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates: an empirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy 105, 862–79.
Miller, M. and P. Weller (1991) Exchange rate bands with price inertia. Economic Journal 101, 1380–99.
Minford, A. and D. Peel (2002) Advanced Macroeconomics: A Primer. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Minford, A. and D. Peel (2007) On the equality of real interest rates across borders in integrated capital markets. Open Economies Review 18, 119–25.
Monoyios, M. and L. Sarno (2002) Mean reversion in stock index futures markets: a nonlinear analysis. Journal of Futures Markets 22, 285–314.
Moore, M. and L. Copeland (1995) A comparison of Johansen and Phillips-Hansen cointegration tests of forward market efficiency, Baillie and Bollerslev revisited. Economics Letters 47, 131–5.
Neely, C. and L. Sarno (2002) How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchanges rates? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 84, 51–74.
Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (1996) Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Obstfeld, M. and A. Taylor (1997) Nonlinear aspects of goods-market arbitrage and adjustment: Hecksher’s commodity points revisited. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 11, 441–79.
O’Connell, P. and S. Wei (1997) The bigger they are, the harder they fall: how price differences between US cities are arbitraged. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, Harvard University.
Ohanissian, A., J. Russell and R. Tsay (2007) True or spurious long memory? A new test. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. Forthcoming.
Ozaki, T. (1978) Non-linear models for non-linear random vibrations. Technical Report, Department of Mathematics, UMIST.
Pavlidis, E., I. Paya and D. Peel (2007) Linearity testing in the presence of heteroskedasticity. In ESRC Seminar Series: Nonlinear Economics and Finance Research Community, Brunel.
Paya, I. and D. Peel (2003) Purchasing power parity adjustment speeds in high frequency data when the equilibrium real exchange rate is proxied by a deterministic trend. Manchester School 71, 39–53.
Paya, I. and D. Peel (2004) Real exchange rates under the gold standard: nonlinear adjustments. Southern Economic Journal 71, 302–13.
Paya, I. and D. Peel (2006a) A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871–1994. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38, 1971–90.
Paya, I. and D. Peel (2006b) On the speed of adjustment in ESTAR models when allowance is made for bias in estimation. Economics Letters 90, 272–7.
Paya, I. and D. Peel (2006c) Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment. Journal of Applied Econometrics 21, 655–68.
Paya, I. and D. Peel (2007a) On the relationship between nominal exchange rates and domestic and foreign prices. Applied Financial Economics 17, 105–17.
Paya, I. and D. Peel (2007b) Systematic sampling of a nonlinear model. Mimeo, Lancaster University.
Paya, I., I. Venetis and D. Peel (2003) Further evidence on PPP adjusment speeds: the case of effective real exchange rates and the EMS. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65, 421–38.
Peel, D. and J. Davidson (1998) A non-linear error correction mechanism based on the bilinear model. Economics Letters 2, 165–70.
Peel, D. and M. Taylor (2002) Covered interest arbitrage in the interwar period and the Keynes-Einzig conjecture. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 34, 51–75.
Peel, D. and I. Venetis (2005) Smooth transition models and arbitrage consistency. Economica 72, 413–30.
Pesaran, H. and A. Timmermann (1995) Predictability of stock returns: robustness and economic significance. Journal of Finance 50, 1201–28.
Phillips, P. (1991) Shortcut to LAD estimator asymptotics. Econometric Theory 4, 450–63.
Phillips, P. (1995) Robust nonstationary regression. Econometric Theory 5, 912–51.
Phillips, P. and B. Hansen (1990) Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies 57, 99–125.
Phillips, P. and T. Magdalinos (2007) Limit theory for moderate deviations from unity under weak dependence. In G. Phillips and E. Tzavalis (eds.), The Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures: Finite Sample and Asymptotic Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Phillips, P., J. McFarland and P. McMahon (1996) Robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920s. Journal of Applied Econometrics 1, 1–22.
Phillips, P., Y. Wu and J. Yu (2006) Explosive behavior and the Nasdaq bubble in the 1990s: when did irrational exuberance escalate asset values? Mimeo, Yale University.
Pippenger, M. and G. Goering (1993) A note on the empirical power of unit root tests under threshold processes. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 55, 473–81.
Pötscher, B. and I. Prucha (1997) Dynamic Nonlinear Econometric Models: Asymptotic Theory. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Rapach, D. and M. Wohar (2004) Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels. Journal of International Money and Finance 23, 867–95.
Rogoff, K. (1996) The purchasing power parity puzzle. Journal of Economic Literature 34, 647–68.
Rogoff, K. (1999) Monetary models of dollar/yen/euro nominal exchange rates: dead or undead? Economic Journal 109, F655–9.
Roll, R. (1979) Violations of purchasing power parity and their implications for efficient international commodity markets. In G.S.S. Marshall (ed.), International Finance and Trade, Volume 1, pp. 133–76. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger.
Rossana, R. and J. Seater (1995) Temporal aggregation and economic time series. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13, 441–51.
Rossi, B. (2005) Testing long-horizon predictive ability with high persistence, and the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. International Economic Review 46, 61–92.
Rossi, B. (2006) Are exchange rates really random walks? Some evidence robust to parameter instability. Macroeconomic Dynamics 10, 20–38.
Saikkonen, P. (1991) Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric Theory 7, 1–21.
Salge, M. (1997) Rational Bubbles. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Samuelson, P. (1964) Theoretical notes on trade problems. Review of Economics and Statistics 46, 145–54.
Sarantis, N. (1999) Modelling nonlinearities in real effective exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance 18, 27–45.
Sarno, L. and M. Taylor (1998) Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion. Economics Letters 60, 131–7.
Sarno, L. and M. Taylor (2002) The Economics of Exchange Rates. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Sarno, L., M. Taylor and I. Chowdhury (2004a). Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price. Journal of International Money and Finance 23, 1–25.
Sarno, L. and G. Valente (2005) Exchange rates and fundamentals: footloose or evolving relationship? In Exchange Rate Determinants and Economic Impacts. Frankfurt: Joint Workshop of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.
Sarno, L., G. Valente and H. Leon (2006) Nonlinearity in deviations from uncovered interest parity: an explanation of the forward bias puzzle. Review of Finance 10, 443–82.
Sarno, L., G. Valente and M. Wohar (2004b) Monetary fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics under different nominal regimes. Economic Inquiry 42, 179–93.
Sercu, P., R. Uppal and C. Van Hulle (1995) The exchange rate in the presence of transaction costs: implications for tests of purchasing power parity. Journal of Finance 50, 1309–19.
Shin, Y. (1994) A residual-based test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory 10, 91–115.
Shleifer, A. and R. Vishny (1997) The limits of arbitrage. Journal of Finance 52, 35–55.
Smallwood, A. (2005) Joint tests for non-linearity and long memory: the case of purchasing power parity. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 9, 1–28.
Spagnola, F., Z. Psaradakis and M. Sola (2005) Testing the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis using a Markov switching model and instrumental variables. Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 423–37.
Stock, J. and M. Watson (1993) A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica 4, 783–820.
Storey, J. (2003) The positive false discovery rate: a Bayesian interpretation and the q-value. Annals of Statistics 31, 2013–35.
Taylor, A. (2001) Potential pitfalls for the purchasing-power parity puzzle? Sampling and specification biases in mean-reversion tests of the law of one price. Econometrica 69, 473–98.
Taylor, M. (1987) Covered interest parity: a high-frequency, high-quality data study. Economica 54, 429–38.
Taylor, M. (1988) An empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques. Applied Economics 20, 1369–81.
Taylor, M. (1989) Covered interest arbitrage and market turbulence. Economic Journal 99, 376–91.
Taylor, M. (1995) The economics of exchange rates. Journal of Economic Literature 33, 13–47.
Taylor, M. and M. Iannizzotto (2001) On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note. Economics Letters 71, 117–29.
Taylor, M. and L. Kilian (2003) Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates? Journal of International Economics 60, 85–107.
Taylor, M. and D. Peel (2000) Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals. Journal of International Money and Finance 19, 33–53.
Taylor, M., D. Peel and L. Sarno (2001) Nonlinear mean-reversion in real exchange rates: toward a solution to the purchasing power parity puzzles. International Economic Review 42, 1015–42.
Taylor, M., D. Peel and L. Sarno (2004) International real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity and the behaviour of real exchange rates: the resolution of a conundrum. International Journal of Finance 9, 15–23.
Taylor, N., D. Van Dijk, P. Franses and A. Lucas (2000) SETS, arbitrage activity, and stock price dynamics. Journal of Banking and Finance 24, 1289–306.
Teräsvirta, T. (1994) Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 208–18.
Tong, H. (1983) Threshold Models in Non-linear Time Series Analysis. New York: Springer Verlag.
Tsay, W. and W. Härdle (2007) A generalized ARFIMA process with Markov-switching fractional differencing parameter. SFB 649, Discussion Paper 2007–022.
Van Dijk, D., T. Teräsvirta and P. Frances (2002) Smooth transition autoregressive models — a survey of recent developments. Econometrics Reviews 21, 1–47.
Venetis, I., I. Paya and D. Peel (2005) Do real exchange rates “mean revert” to productivity? A nonlinear approach. Mimeo, Lancaster University.
Venetis, I., I. Paya and D. Peel (2007) Deterministic impulse response in a nonlinear model An analytic expression. Economics Letters 95, 315–19.
Vogelsang, T. (1998) Trend function hypothesis testing in the presence of serial correlation. Econometrica 66, 123–48.
Wagner, N. and Marsh, T.A. (2005) Measuring tail thickness under GARCH and an application to extreme exchange rate changes. Journal of Empirical Finance 12, 165–85.
Wolff, C. (1987) Time-varying parameters and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of structural exchange rate models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 5, 87–97.
Wooldridge, J. (1990) A unified approach to robust, regression-based specification tests. Econometric Theory 6, 17–43.
Wooldridge, J. (1994) On the limits of GLM for specification testing: comment. Econometric Theory 10, 409–18.
Wu, C. (1986) Jackknife, bootstrap and other resampling methods in regression analysis (with discussion). Annals of Statististics 14, 1261–350.
Yoon, G. (2005) Some properties of periodically collapsing bubbles. Mimeo, Pusan National University and the University of York.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2009 Efthymios G. Pavlidis, Ivan Paya and David A. Peel
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pavlidis, E.G., Paya, I., Peel, D.A. (2009). The Econometrics of Exchange Rates. In: Mills, T.C., Patterson, K. (eds) Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230244405_22
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230244405_22
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-4039-1800-0
Online ISBN: 978-0-230-24440-5
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)