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Interviewing Experts pp 252–274Cite as

Palgrave Macmillan

The Delphi Method: Eliciting Experts’ Knowledge in Technology Foresight

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Part of the book series: Research Methods Series ((REMES))

Abstract

The Delphi method is basically a highly structured group process through which experts assess issues on which knowledge is uncertain and imperfect by nature. The Expert Delphi has in the meantime acquired a fixed position as part of the technology foresight projects that are becoming of increasing importance around the world. This paper presents the methodological principles, sets out specific advantages and critical aspects and illustrates the evolution and application in the context of foresight with examples at international level. Design decisions, innovative elements and exploitation context are presented in the light of the Austrian Technology Delphi (including the problem-oriented approach, the application in the form of a “Decision Delphi,” the broader definition of the expert and special measures to motivate participation). This is followed by an investigation of more recent methodological modifications: the combination with a cross-impact analysis on future European transport systems; a Finnish approach based on a balance between consensus and diversity objectives; and the use of the Expert Delphi with internet support.

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Authors
  1. Georg Aichholzer
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Austrian Academy of Sciences, Austria

    Alexander Bogner

  2. Institute of Advanced Studies, Austria

    Beate Littig

  3. Institute for Social Science Research, Germany

    Wolfgang Menz

Copyright information

© 2009 Georg Aichholzer

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Aichholzer, G. (2009). The Delphi Method: Eliciting Experts’ Knowledge in Technology Foresight. In: Bogner, A., Littig, B., Menz, W. (eds) Interviewing Experts. Research Methods Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230244276_13

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