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The Delphi Method: Eliciting Experts’ Knowledge in Technology Foresight

  • Georg Aichholzer
Part of the Research Methods Series book series (REMES)

Abstract

The Delphi method is basically a highly structured group process through which experts assess issues on which knowledge is uncertain and imperfect by nature. The Expert Delphi has in the meantime acquired a fixed position as part of the technology foresight projects that are becoming of increasing importance around the world. This paper presents the methodological principles, sets out specific advantages and critical aspects and illustrates the evolution and application in the context of foresight with examples at international level. Design decisions, innovative elements and exploitation context are presented in the light of the Austrian Technology Delphi (including the problem-oriented approach, the application in the form of a “Decision Delphi,” the broader definition of the expert and special measures to motivate participation). This is followed by an investigation of more recent methodological modifications: the combination with a cross-impact analysis on future European transport systems; a Finnish approach based on a balance between consensus and diversity objectives; and the use of the Expert Delphi with internet support.

Keywords

Delphi Method Technology Policy Subject Knowledge Delphi Technique National Innovation System 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Further readings

  1. Gupta, U. G. and Clarke, R. E. (1996) “Theory and Applications of the Delphi Technique: A Bibliography (19751994)” in Technological Forecasting and Social Change 53(2), 185–211.Google Scholar
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Copyright information

© Georg Aichholzer 2009

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  • Georg Aichholzer

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