The Complexity of Decision-Making in Large Projects with Multiple Partners: Be Prepared to Change

Abstract

All large projects can be considered complex. They have the characteristics identified by Williams (1999) as sources of complexity, i.e. structural complexity, in that they are composed of many interrelated components, subsystems and technologies and also uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty include the technology, the political and social environment and the market, with many interactive effects among them. The types of projects discussed here have additional characteristics that further increase their complexity and the difficulty of managing them.

The present chapter examines the reality of decision-making during the front-end of large projects that are particularly complex. The discussion is based on over ten years of empirical study of large projects in several industries and from differing perspectives. The chapter will first present the characteristics of complex projects and provide some examples. This is followed by a discussion of the major categories of decisions that must be made during the front-end of these projects. A presentation is then given of two very different approaches to the management of these projects in general and to decision-making in particular – rational choice and evolutionary shaping. The argument presented is that the complex projects discussed here require the latter approach, the governance rules and structures of which are presented in the final section of the chapter.