Re-framing the Strategic Response to Unexpected Change

Abstract

As we have seen, the strategic challenge of how organizations can become more prepared for unexpected events has risen significantly on the leadership agenda following the events of 9–11.⁴⁴ As we have also seen, strategists who ‘think the unthinkable’ increasingly confront a particular practical problem. In short, the various ‘thinkable’ scenarios can appear so great (in number as well as in scale) that the task of becoming adequately prepared for them all stretches the limits of available resources. This practical problem becomes acute when the resources required to build up a response capacity in anticipation of a series of ‘thinkable’ events exceeds the sum total of resources available. And in the most extreme case, the costs of preparedness can exceed the total value of that organization which seeks preparedness in the first place.⁴⁵