Strategy and Unexpected Change

Abstract

In a world characterized by increased complexity and uncertainty, organizations today struggle to be strategically prepared for unexpected change. Of course, the strategist’s job has traditionally involved an attempt to anticipate changes in the environment and to develop capabilities that will allow the organization to continue to thrive under new and different circumstances. But what if change cannot be anticipated with any degree of certainty? And what if change is so complex that its effects and implications can never be fully understood, much less anticipated? What, if anything, can organizations do to become more strategically prepared for unexpected change?