Abstract
The financial crisis that started in 2007 exposed a number of flaws in the financial system. Many of these flaws were associated with financial instruments that were issued by the shadow banking system, especially securitized assets. The volume and complexity of securitized assets grew rapidly during the run-up to the financial crisis that began in 2007. This chapter discusses how the financial crisis can be viewed as a possible but logical outcome of a system where investors are overconfident, busy, and investing other peoples’ money and intermediaries are set up to take advantage of investors’ tendencies. The investor-intermediary risk cycle in this crisis is common to other crises. However, there are a number of factors that may have made the 2007 crisis more severe. Among them are the length of the precrisis period, the shift from financial intermediaries to the shadow banking system, the increasing interconnectedness among financial firms, and the increased leverage at some financial firms.
This paper is a revised and extended version of “Investor behavior in the period before the 2007–2008 financial crisis,” in Managing Systemic Risk ed. J. R. LaBrosse, R. Olivares-Caminal, and D. Singh (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2011 [forthcoming]). I would like to thank Crystal Cun for research assistance and the participants at presentations at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the FUNCAS conference “Crisis y Regulación Financiera” for comments. The views in this chapter are those of the author and may not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Adelino, Manuel, 2009, “Do Investors Rely Only on Ratings? The Case of Mortgage-Backed Securities,” working paper.
Adrian, Tobias, and Hyun Song Shin, 2008, “Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Cycles,” Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 14(1).
Adrian, Tobias, and Hyun Song Shin, 2009, “Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99(2): 600–605.
Agarwal, Sumit, 2007, “The Impact of Homeowners’ Housing Wealth Misestimation and Consumption and Savings Decisions,” Real Estate Economics 35(2): 135–54.
Altman, Edward I., and Herbert A. Rijken, 2004, “How Ratings Agencies Achieve Rating Stability,” Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(11): 2679–2714.
Ashcraft, Adam, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, and James Vickery, 2009, “MBS ratings and the mortgage credit boom,” working paper.
Barber, Brad M., and Odean, Terrance, 2001, “Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 261–93.
Barber, Brad M., and Odean, Terrance, 2008, “All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors,” Review of Financial Studies, 22, 785–818.
Kathleen D. Vohs (eds.), 2007, Encyclopedia of Social Psychology, 1st edition, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Ben-David, I., J. R. Graham, and C. R. Harvey, 2007. “Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies,” NBER Working Paper.
Bhardwaj, Geetesh, and Rajdeep Sengupta, 2009, “Where’s the Smoking Gun? A Study of Underwriting Standards for US Subprime Mortgages,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2008–036B.
Boot, Arnoud W. A., and Anjan V Thakor, 1997, “Banking Scope and Financial Innovation,” Review of Financial Studies, 10(4): 1099–1131.
Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2009, “Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007–08,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1): 77–100.
Brunnermeier, Markus K., and Martin Oehmke, 2009, “Complexity in Financial Markets,” working paper.
Bustelo, Pablo, Clara García, and Iliana Olivié, 1999, “Global and Domestic Factors of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Lessons from the East Asian Episodes (1997–1999),” working paper.
Chan-Lau, Jorge A., and Zhaohui Chen, 1998, “Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch as a Result of Inefficient Financial Intermediation—with Reference to the Asian Financial Crisis,” working paper.
Covitz, Daniel M., and Paul Harrison, 2003, “Testing Conflicts of Interest at Bond Ratings Agencies with Market Anticipation: Evidence that Reputation Incentives Dominate,” working paper.
Daniel, Kent D., David A. Hirshleifer, and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998, “Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions,” Journal of Finance, 53(6): 1839–85.
Daniel, Kent D., David A. Hirshleifer, and Siew Hong Teoh, 2002, “Investor Psychology in Capital Markets: Evidence and Policy Implications,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 139–209.
Davis, Henry A., 2005, “The Definition of Structured Finance: Results from a Survey,” The Journal of Structured Finance, 11(3), 5–10.
DellaVigna, Stefano, and Joshua M. Pollet, 2009, “Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements,” Journal of Finance, 64, 709–49.
DeLong, J. B., A. M. Shleifer, L. H. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann, 1990, “Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,” Journal of Political Economy 98, 703–38.
Demyanyk, Yuliya, and Otto Van Hemert, 2008, “Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis,” The Review of Financial Studies, December 2008.
Diamond, Douglas W., and Raghuram G. Rajan, 2009, “The Credit Crisis: Conjectures About Causes and Remedies,” working paper.
Fons, Jerome S., 2008, “Rating Competition and Structured Finance,” Journal of Structured Finance, 14(3): 7–15.
Frazzini, Andrea, and Owen A. Lamont, 2008, “Dumb Money: Mutual Fund Flows and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns,” Journal of Financial Economics 88(2): 299–322.
Goetzmann, William N., Massimo Massa, and K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001, “Behavioral Factors in Mutual Fund Flows,” working paper.
Gorton, Gary, 2008, “The Panic of 2007,” in Maintaining Stability in a Changing Financial System, Proceedings of the 2008 Jackson Hole Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2008.
Gorton, Gary, and Andrew Metrick, 2009, “Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo,” working paper.
Greenlaw, D., J. Hatzius, A. Kashyap, and H. S. Shin, 2008, “Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown,” US Monetary Policy Forum Report 2, http://www.chicagogsb.edu/usmpf/docs/usmpf2008confdrait.pdf.
Hendricks, Darryll, Jayendu S. Patel, and Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1993, “Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: The Persistence of Performance, 1974–87,” Journal of Finance 48, 93–130.
Hill, Claire A., 2009, “Why Did Anyone Listen to the Rating Agencies After Enron?” Journal of Business and Technology Law, 4(2), 283–94.
Kane, Edward J., 2008, “Who Should Bear Responsibility for Mistakes Made in Assigning Credit Ratings to Securitized Debt?” working paper, 2008.
Keys, Benjamin J., Tanmoy K. Mukherjee, Amit Seru, and Vikrant Vig, 2010, “Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1): 307–62.
Kohler, K. E., 1998, “Collateralised Loan Obligations: A Powerful New Portfolio Management Tool For Banks,” The Securitization Conduit, 1(2): 6–15.
Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey Tate, 2005, “CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment,” The Journal of Finance, 60(6): 2661–700.
Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey Tate, 2008, “Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market’s Reaction,” Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1) (July 2008): 20–43.
Mason, Joseph R., and Josh Rosner, 2007, “Where Did the Risk Go? How Misapplied Bond Ratings Cause Mortgage Backed Securities and Collateralized Debt Obligation Market Disruptions,” working paper.
Moody’s, 2006, “Default& Loss Rates of Structured Finance Securities: 1993–2005,” April 2006.
Odean, Terrance, 1998, “Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are above Average,” Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1887–934.
Overdahl, James, and Barry Schachter, 1995, “Derivatives Regulation and Financial Management: Lessons from Gibson Greetings,” Financial Management 24(1); 68–78.
Partnoy, Frank, 1999, “The Siskel and Ebert of Financial Markets?: Two Thumbs Down for the Credit Rating Agencies,” Washington University Law Quarterly 77(3): 620–712.
Partnoy, Frank, 2006, “How and Why Credit Rating Agencies are Not Like Other Gatekeepers,” Financial Gatekeepers: Can They Protect Investors?, ed. Yasuyuki Fuchita and Robert E. Litan, Brookings Institution Press and the Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research.
Prince, Jeffrey T., 2006, “A General Review of CDO Valuation Methods,” The Journal of Structured Finance, 12 (2): 14–21.
Rabin, Matt, and Joel L. Schrag, 1999, “First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1): 37–82.
Reis, Ricardo, 2006, “Inattentive Producers,” Review of Economic Studies, 73(3), 793–821.
Rosen, Richard J., 2007, “The Role of Securitization in Mortgage Lending,” Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, November 2007.
Scharfstein, David S., and Jeremy C. Stein, 1990, “Herd Behavior and Investment,” American Economic Review, 80(3): 465–79.
Scheinkman, J. A., and W. Xiong, 2003, “Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles,” Journal of Political Economy, 111(6): 1183–219.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 2003, “Report on the Role and Function of Credit Rating Agencies in the Operation of the Securities Markets,” January 2003.
Shin, Hyun Song, 2009, “Financial Intermediation and the Post-Crisis Financial System,” working paper.
Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert Vishny, 2009, “Unstable Banking,” working paper.
Sims, Christopher A., 2003, “Implications of Rational Inattention,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3): 665–90.
Sirri, Erik R., and Peter Tufano, 1998, “Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows,” Journal of Finance, 53, 1589–622.
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman, 1974, “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science, New Series, 185(4157), 1124–131.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2010 Robert R. Bliss and George G. Kaufman
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Rosen, R.J. (2010). Too Much Right Can Make a Wrong: Setting the Stage for the US Financial Crisis. In: Bliss, R.R., Kaufman, G.G. (eds) Financial Institutions and Markets. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230117365_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230117365_2
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, New York
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-29113-7
Online ISBN: 978-0-230-11736-5
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)