The Legacies of Transition Governments: Practical Changes and Theoretical Optimism

Abstract

A democratic transition can be a transformative experience, with crowds of demonstrators in the streets, protesters facing off against armed security forces, late night wrangling and jubilant celebrations marking the end of years of dictatorship. Successfully managing the intense uncertainty and fast pace of events requires a combination of skill, luck, and timing, as elites attempt to gauge the prevailing winds and win control of a political system without making the mistakes of their predecessors. Those who find themselves at the helm of a transition government are uniquely placed to face these challenges while being under the scrutiny of observers both foreign and domestic. If the transition succeeds, then by definition the political system will be thoroughly overhauled. But even if the transition fails, the political elite cannot simply return to business as usual, as the political landscape has changed: the incumbents have shown their vulnerability, the crowds in the street and their prodemocracy leaders have shown their strength. The balance has shifted away from dictatorship, even if democracy has not been achieved. These circumstances have characterized transitional periods in a number of African countries since the 1990s as dozens of attempted transitions to democracy on the continent have encountered varying degrees of success.