Forecasts need to be explained both to policymakers and to other clients, but also to a wider public. This raises communication issues. First, some of the technical subtleties are difficult to explain in a simple way, not least as regards the uncertainties surrounding the forecast (Section 13.1). Second, there is the question of how much transparency is desirable: to what extent should governments and central banks publish their forecasts or keep them confidential (Section 13.2)? Lastly, in the case of official forecasts, it is important to acknowledge their ambivalent status: they are both a technical and a political exercise, and this raises tensions that need to be addressed (Section 13.3).
KeywordsCentral Bank Forecast Error Economic Forecast Communication Challenge Central Scenario
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