Demand for forecasts obviously arises from a need to form a view on the future.1 A government, for example, when preparing next year’s budget, has to rely on a forecast of activity in order to quantify the foreseeable tax receipts. Social partners have to refer to some forecast of inflation when negotiating wage increases. Firms contemplating investment in new factories try to anticipate demand for the corresponding output. In fact, in virtually all walks of economic life, agents regularly use forecasts as inputs into their decisions. That said, forecast accuracy is far from perfect, as discussed in Chapter 11, and preferences and constraints along with forecasts matter in framing decisions.
KeywordsInterest Rate Monetary Policy Business Cycle Central Bank Fiscal Policy
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