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The Retrospective Detective: Cognitive Bias and the Cold Case Investigation

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Book cover Decision Making in Police Enquiries and Critical Incidents

Abstract

Much of the available research on police decision-making in criminal investigations tends to focus on the detrimental effects of cognitive bias in live/current homicide investigations, and not on how it might have a negative influence on investigative decision-making in cold case homicides. This arguably indicates the existence of a common assumption that, live or cold, criminal investigations require the same decision-making and so are vulnerable to the same bias and in the same ways. This chapter suggests that the very term ‘cold case’ is likely to have a different psychological bias effect on investigators of cold cases and to pose potentially a far stronger negative influence on the decisions that are made in cold as opposed to live cases. The idea that cold cases necessitate a different ‘investigative mindset’ to live cases is posited here, along with the suggestion that investigator confidence is likely to be undermined by an inherent framing effect which comes into play when people are told that they are to investigate a cold case, that does not with live cases. Also discussed are the implications of having to make decisions based on the result of numerous previous decisions made by prior police investigators, might have on cold-case investigators. This may in turn serve to increase the likelihood of confirmation bias when investigators review cold cases as they make decisions within a far more pessimistic frame than they do for live cases. The chapter ends with a tentative research agenda for increasing our understanding of decision-making processes in cold case homicide investigations.

A shorter version of this chapter was published as Roach, J. (2017). The Retrospective Detective. Cognitive Bias and the Cold Case Homicide Investigator. Papers from the British Criminology Conference. Vol. 17. ISSN 1759-0043. Found at: http://www.britsoccrim.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/The-Retrospective-Detective.pdf.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Thank you to one of my colleagues (Dr. Wright) for pointing out that unless I am upfront about this early in chapter, then some readers may become disappointed waiting for a train that never comes. Hopefully any potential disappointment has now been avoided.

  2. 2.

    Interestingly when I asked if they often recovered the items stolen in the burglaries that they were investigating, all three said that they did not usually, but did find some from other burglaries, so always a ‘result’!

  3. 3.

    Theses and guidance on specific forms of homicide (e.g. child) are grouped together by the College of Policing under Authorised Professional Practice and can be found at https://www.app.college.police.uk/app-content/major-investigation-and-public-protection/homicide/? (Accessed on the 12 December 2016).

  4. 4.

    I am currently putting my money where my mouth is and running a series of experiments with police investigators using Decision Board Analysis and I am now lucky enough to have a Ph.D. student currently researching cold case decision-making.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK

    Jason Roach

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  1. Jason Roach
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Correspondence to Jason Roach .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Open University, Milton Keynes, UK

    Mark Roycroft

  2. Applied Criminology and Policing Centre, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK

    Jason Roach

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Roach, J. (2019). The Retrospective Detective: Cognitive Bias and the Cold Case Investigation. In: Roycroft, M., Roach, J. (eds) Decision Making in Police Enquiries and Critical Incidents. Palgrave Pivot, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95847-4_8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95847-4_8

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  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Pivot, London

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-349-95846-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-349-95847-4

  • eBook Packages: Law and CriminologyLaw and Criminology (R0)

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