Abstract
Roy Harrod was one of the most prolific economists of the twentieth century. At the same time, he is also an underrated economist. Harrod’s wide-ranging contributions exhibit three common characteristics. First, they are part of a far-reaching and ambitious, albeit incomplete, project to establish the foundations for economic dynamics. Second, they reflect Harrod’s perennial concern with the practical applications and aspects of his theoretical contributions. Third, most of his writings include the international dimension, and they exemplify his preoccupation with the reform of the international economic architecture. Mainstream economists portray Harrod as having asked the right questions in business cycle (dynamics) and growth theory. But he is ultimately considered to have been unable to provide the foundation for their future developments. Keynesian and post-Keynesian economists highlight the contributions of Harrod to Marx’s schemes of reproduction, to the generalization of the Keynesian Revolution, the development of dynamics along non-mainstream lines, and the balance-of-payments constraint approach to economic growth.
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Notes
- 1.
Blaug (1985, p. 84) remarks: “Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, Harrod’s journalistic output, quite apart from his more serious publications on the British Economy…Reforming the World’s Money…Dollar-Sterling Collaboration…Money…was so prodigious as to defy belief. In writing so much, he probably diluted the impact he might have had.”
- 2.
Young (1989) and especially Besomi (1999, 2003, 2008) are the most important sources behind the reinterpretation of Harrod’s contributions to economics and in correctly identifying his place and importance in the history of economic thought. Berlin’s letters (2004, 2011, 2018) provide important insights for understanding the complex personality and private life of Harrod.
- 3.
Even when Harrod is recognized as a discoverer of the long-run average cost curve, he is described as contemporaneous to Viner. See, Blaug and Lloyd (2010, p. 76).
- 4.
A recent volume on the different theories of international trade (Lichtenstein 2016) does not even mention Harrod and the section on the open economy from a post-Keynesian perspective is centered on the contributions of Kalecki.
- 5.
Young (1987) is an exception to this view.
- 6.
- 7.
As stated by Kregel (1980, p. 120): ‘The resolution of this problem of the knife-edge destroyed Harrod’s method as well as the particular meaning that Harrod attached to the meaning of the concept of a warranted rate of change. It also removed the analysis of cyclical fluctuations around a trend growth rate from the concerns of growth theory, which became concerned with long-period equilibrium growth paths.
- 8.
See for example Harrod (1963a), p. 403.
- 9.
In his exchanges with Keynes on the GT Harrod wrote: “The classical theory is invalid… but no nonsense” (Keynes 1973a, p. 540).
- 10.
Letter of Harrod to Matthews 8 January 1964. Cited in Besomi (2008, p. 72).
- 11.
Letters from Harrod to S. Weintraub (24th July and 12th August 1964) cited in Lodewijks (1990, p. 11). Young (1998, pp. 291–293) presents an interesting exchange between Harrod and Haberler on Friedman. Harrod makes the point that “…inflationary pressures depends on real causes, which can operate, even if there is no increase in the quantity of money and no expectation of rising prices” (Ibid., p. 292).
- 12.
See, for example, Harrod’s letter to Robertson (8 October 1937, CIPC, Vol. II, pp. 724–725).
- 13.
See also p. 77.
- 14.
This is consistent with Harrod’s belief that knowledge is obtained from induction and not a priori beliefs or premises. An illustrative example of the type of error brought on by using deductive thinking is Samuelson’s equality of factor prices or complete specialization under conditions of free trade (Harrod 1958b).
- 15.
See also Harrod 1967a.
- 16.
The boom phase of the economic cycle was manifest in the rise in factory building starts and in machine tool orders in manufacturing. Both were up by 55% and 84% in 1954; 132% and 74% in the first three quarters of 1955 (Harrod 1961, pp. 101, 160). According to Harrod, this was not sustainable and translated into a rising gap between investment orders and delivery. This represented “the most important feature, both as regards, cause and effect, of the British boom 1954-1955” (Harrod, p. 111). This in turn reflected the acceleration principle. As he put it (ibid., p. 124): “Econometricians have claimed that they do not find swings in investment as large as would be required by the acceleration principle. Those of us who have argued that the acceleration principle plays an important causal role in the trade cycle would not expect such swings. It is not realized investment that one must look to see a reflection of the acceleration principle, but in a boom, to unfulfilled orders on investment account and in the slump on sees its reflection in the growth of redundant capacity.” The failure of the authorities to diagnose the source of disequilibrium of the boom (unfulfilled investment orders) led the authorities to curtail demand by contracting consumption which would at the same time release savings for investment. Yet as Harrod showed, the wage-productivity gap was not as nearly as large as that of unfulfilled orders. In fact, the decline in consumption did not release resources for investment but led to its slowdown.
- 17.
Harrod thought that the excess savings case described that of the United States in the 1930s. He thought that Keynes also considered Great Britain to be in an excess savings situation.
- 18.
Also as Harrod argued (ibid., pp. 101–102) fiscal policy (as well as monetary policy) can, if implemented for a substantial period of time, affect the normal warranted rate. See Moudud (2009) for an application and formalization of this view of fiscal policy to address the problems of slow growth, high unemployment and poverty.
- 19.
Harrod seems to have maintained a positive opinion on the effects of public works at least until 1938. See “Essay Democracy and the Economic Crisis” (1933).
- 20.
See Moudud (2000) for a critique of mainstream stabilization policies from a Classical-Harrodian perspective.
- 21.
According to this view monetary and other shocks can produce a divergence between the actual and full employment output levels. Overtime, following a temporary shock output returns to its full employment trend path.
- 22.
James Tobin (1974) coined the term “cyclical mentality” to describe this type of economic policy orientation in the Truman (1945–1953) and Eisenhower (1953–1961) administrations prior to the advent of the New Economics based on aggregate demand management developed by James Tobin among others.
- 23.
Douglas (1935) took the same route. He was not convinced of the efficiency of monetary instruments to rein in the effects of the depression on output and employment. For one thing, open-market operations built up commercial bank reserves and they would use these to cancel out debt rather than to end up with bad loans. Also lowering the discount rate was simply an “idle gesture” for it would do little to boost business confidence since the problem lay in business’ dimmed profit prospects, i.e., in demand conditions. Douglas and Aaron (1931) had voiced earlier a similar concern. They also pointed out the limitations in the use of monetary policy instruments during a depression: “…the difficulty comes form the demand side as to whether business, exposed to such difficulties, would wish to borrow more.” The problem was the response of aggregate demand. As put by Douglas and Aaron (1931, p. 225): “The interest of society as a whole does not lie with the fortunes of individual firms, but in the demand for commodities in the aggregate.”
- 24.
Harrod’s view of the transmission mechanism of an increase money supply based on a heterogeneous set of expectations and reactions differs to a great extent to that underlying the real balance effect which provided the exit door to the “liquidity trap” or the portfolio balance effects which is the basis for quantitative easing. The real balance effect, in a recession, that is with unemployment, works by increasing consumption and output. The portfolio balance effect works by substitution in agents’ portfolio holdings between assets leading to a decline in long-term interest rates.
- 25.
See, for example, Rivera Batiz (1987).
- 26.
From a short-run business cycle perspective, Harrod’s analysis of instability is portrayed as limited, failing to include the behavior of the economy off the warranted path (Hicks 1950). According to Blume and Sargent (op. cit.), Harrod lost the tug-of-war with the econometricians and Harrod’s analysis was displaced by Friedman’s fixed-coefficient geometric distributed lag in income model.
- 27.
The expression “esoteric abracadabra” is from a letter of Keynes to J. Robinson regarding an article on technical progress that Kalecki submitted to the Economic Journal in 1941. Keynes also refers to the “usual pack of tricks of imperfect competition theory.” See, Keynes (1983, pp. 830–831) and Kalecki (1941).
- 28.
Cited in López and Assous (2010, p. 119).
- 29.
Letter from Harrod to S. Weintraub, November 4th, 1970. Cited in Lodewijks (1990, p. 11).
- 30.
See also Harcourt (2006a), p. 220.
- 31.
Contrarily Kregel (1980) asserts that Harrod did not view his dynamic theory as a long-run growth theory based on Keynes’s GT short-period analysis.
- 32.
- 33.
See, McCombie and Thirlwall (1999, p. 49). One could expand the definition to read: countries face an external constraint when their performance (current and expected) in external markets and the response of the financial markets to this (current and expected) performance limits and restricts their scope for conducting domestic policies, including fiscal, exchange rate and monetary policy in line with the potential of the economy.
- 34.
In other words:
$$CA - FF = 0 < = > P_{d} X + F = P_{f} ME + OCN$$(9.1)where, CA = current account; X and M = volume of exports and imports; E = nominal exchange rate; Pd and Pf = price of exports expressed in local currency and price of imports expressed in the foreign currency of the imports; OCN = nominal value of other components of the current account. Setting out from this Eq. (9.1), the real growth rate of an economy can be expressed in relation to the terms of trade [1], changes in long-term financial flows measured in real terms [2], and exogenous changes in the level of real external aggregate demand [3].
$$y_{bpcf} = \begin{array}{*{20}c} {\frac{{\left( {1\,+\,\theta \psi\,+\,\gamma } \right)\left( {p_{d}\,-\,e\,-\,p_{f} } \right)}}{\xi }} \\ {[1]} \\ \end{array}\,+\,\begin{array}{*{20}c} {\frac{{\eta \left( {f\,-\,p_{d} } \right)}}{\xi }} \\ {[2]} \\ \end{array}\,+\,\begin{array}{*{20}c} {\frac{{\pi y_{RM} }}{\xi }} \\ {[3]} \\ \end{array}$$(9.2)where the variables include \(y_{bpcf}\) = rate of variation in the real growth of a country at the periphery that is compatible with the external equilibrium as defined earlier; rate of variation of domestic prices (domestic inflation); pf = rate of variation in external prices (imported inflation); e = rate of variation in the nominal exchange rate; f = rate of variation in real financial flows; \(y_{RM}\)= rate of variation of real growth in the rest of the world. The parameters comprise: \(\gamma ,\psi\) = price elasticities of imports and exports \(\gamma ,\psi < 0\); \(\xi ,\pi\) = income elasticities of imports and exports, \(\xi ,\pi > 0\); \(\theta \,\text{and}\,\eta\) = proportion of current account deficits financed from export earnings and financial flows, respectively. According to (9.2), the real growth rate of a country is positively related to external demand growth weighted by the import and export elasticity ratio, with increases in the terms of trade (there being a negative relationship with currency appreciation weighted by price elasticities) and with higher rates of growth in long-term financial flows. Adopting various simplifications for (9.1) allows the analysis to be focused on different issues connected with these four alternatives. For example, an assumption that changes over time in the exchange rate and the terms of trade tend to cancel out or amount to little variation in the long-run results in the growth rate compatible with the balance-of-payments constraint being expressed with reference to financial flows and aggregate demand in the rest of the world.
$$y_{bpcf} = \frac{{\eta \left( {f - p_{d} } \right)}}{\xi } + \frac{{\pi y_{RM} }}{\xi }$$(9.3)In the extreme case where the current account remains in balance over the long run (i.e., where \(\theta = 1\) and \(\eta = 0\)), the growth rate compatible with the balance-of-payments equilibrium depends exclusively on the growth rate of the center and the income elasticities of exports and imports.
$$y_{bpcf} = \frac{{\pi y_{RM} }}{\xi }$$(9.4)This formulation is known as Thirwall’s Law ( 1979). Equation (9.4) is the dynamic trade multiplier result, that is the dynamic version of \(Y = \frac{X}{m}\), where m = is the marginal propensity to import.
- 35.
See, Harrod wrote the article Utilitarianism Revised (1936a) which is a defense of the utilitarian approach.
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Pérez Caldentey, E. (2019). Harrod’s Legacy: Pulling It All Together. In: Roy Harrod. Great Thinkers in Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-74085-7_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-74085-7_9
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