Abstract
Roy Harrod (1900–1978) was one of the most prolific economists of the twentieth century in terms of the number of contributions, their diversity, and originality. He grew up in poverty and was marked by his mother’s chronic depression, from which Harrod would also suffer, taking a significant toll on his emotional life. Despite his family circumstances, Harrod won a teaching position as a Reader at Oxford University (Christ Church) where he spent his entire professional career. His economics were shaped by his long-standing friendship with Keynes and by his relationship with F. Y. Edgeworth. Harrod took part in the creation of the Oxford Statistical Institute and played a leading role in the creation of the Oxford Economists’ Research Group (OERG). He was also actively involved in politics and policy making contributing to shape Keynes’s Currency Union proposal, acting as an advisor to the Conservative Prime Minister Harold McMillan and the IMF, and was a member of the renowned Bellagio Group. He was knighted and appointed editor of the Economic Journal as well as President of the Royal Economic Society. Despite his successful professional life, he retired from Oxford without reaching the status of professor. Harrod is generally identified with the balanced growth Harrod–Domar model which is a clear misrepresentation of his views on dynamics, a central concern of his intellectual life, but for which he is partly responsible.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
The full title of the publication is “The Muniments of Shavington being a catalogue of the deeds and writings of the Shavington, Cloverley, Irish, and other estates of Arthur Pemberton Heywood-Lonsdale, esquire, deposited in the muniment room at Shavington Hall, Salop.”
- 3.
See also Leighton (1901, pp. 29–30).
- 4.
These articles provide a statement of the facts rather than an interpretation of their historical meaning (Tomlin 2018). Clayton and Moore Bennett (1990) view these as colorful and inaccurate. Henry Dawes Harrod’s father, Henry Harrod also published a few articles on similar subjects including: On the Mantle and Ring of Widowhood (1867), and Some details of a Murrain of the Fourteenth Century; from the Court Rolls of a Norfolk Manner (1867).
Some particular relating to the History of Abbey Church of Wymondham in Norfolk (1872), and the Crypt of the Chapter House, Westminster Abbey (1874).
- 5.
Oxford Dictionary of National Biography. Harrod, Sir (Henry) Roy Forbes (1900–1978). Economist, 1–8.
- 6.
See Wakeman (1980, pp. 16–17).
- 7.
Some of her novels include Mother Earth: a sentimental comedy; The Triumphant Rider (1926); The Potentate (1898), Odd Stories (1897), and The White Hound (1913).
- 8.
At the time, Wilde was living in poverty and exile in Paris. He died the next year. George Meredith was also invited but could not attend the wedding. He wrote the following words: “I think you know my view that it is the braver choice to embrace the world than to renounce it So must I be glad of your putting on the veil of acceptance instead of abnegation You wavered, I heard and I can augur well of the man who disposed you to take the way of nature s good old road. Expect merely the commonplace of happiness accept in conventual spirit what is given be assured that much of it corrupts, and above all let it be your pride to bold to your courage”, Meredith (1912), letter to Miss Frances Forbes-Robertson, 4th April 1899, p. 503.
- 9.
“Here are in the letter certain passages which deal with my mental development in prison, and the inevitable evolution of character and intellectual attitude towards life that has taken place: and I want you and others, who still stand by me have affection for me to know exactly in what mood and manner I hope to face the world”, Wilde (1962, p. 512), letter to Robert Cross, 1 April 1897.
- 10.
As he put it: “My mother was so fearful melancholy at this time that I have conceived the notion that it was my duty to put her out of pain, i.e., to kill her and to take the consequences. This obsessed my mind”. Cited in Besomi (2003), CIPC, Vol. I, p. 12, note 2.
- 11.
- 12.
See also, Bowra (1966, p. 111).
- 13.
Joseph sent two letters (18th July 1921 and 1st August 1922) congratulating him for both achievements. See Besomi, CIPC, Vol. I, pp. 7, 12.
- 14.
The first honours examination to include economics as a main subject was planned for June 1923. Harrod (1951a, p. 317).
- 15.
See letters from Keynes to Walter Runciman and to Harrod (7th July 1922; 21st July 1922 and 15th August 1922). See Hiroshi, Y. (1998). Runciman was a Member of Parliament for the Liberal (1899–1900, 1902–1918, 1924–1931) and later on of the National Liberal (1931–1937) parties.
- 16.
During his stay at Cambridge, Harrod met with Keynes five times (CIPC, Vol. I, p. 15, note 1).
- 17.
See also Harrod (1946, p. 178), where he recalls that after his Essay on Marshall appeared Keynes said to him: “haven’t you yet discovered that the book is void of content?”
- 18.
By 1922, Keynes had started to edit the Cambridge Economics Handbook series as a means of teaching economics so that “the number of those who can think for themselves may be increased” (Keynes 1922, p. v). The authors of the book were “orthodox members of the Cambridge School of Economics” (ibid., p. vi). The first book of the series was Supply and Demand written by Hubert Henderson which appeared in 1922 followed by Dennis Robertson’s Money which also appeared in the same year. According to Robertson, the analysis of money was a special case of the general theory of value thus making the connection with Henderson’s volume. By that time, there was a standard corpus of writings on money in Cambridge including Marshall (1871, 1960 [1923]), Pigou (1917), Hawtrey (1970 [1913]), and Lavington (1922). There followed Keynes’s Tract in Monetary Reform (1978b [1923]) and Robertson’s Banking Policy and the Price Level (1926).
- 19.
See Moggridge (1992, p. 352, Table 2).
- 20.
Harrod recalls Austin Robinson’s presentation of a paper on Britain’s Capital Exports which he thought to be: “…a highly polished performance a fine example of Cambridge thoroughness, accuracy and theoretical expertise.” He also attended a presentation by Keynes on Malthus which was the basis for his essay on Malthus in Essays in Biography (CW, Vol. X, pp. 71–108). Harrod recounts an anecdote reflecting how sensitive was the subject of contraception (1959a, p. 328).
Harrod himself presented a paper on a methodological subject (should Pigou be read in Oxford) and recollects that a mischievous secretary changed the title to “Should Cambridge Economists be read at Oxford.” For the accuracy of this anecdote, (see Besomi 2003, CIPC, Vol. I, pp. 15, 16, note 2; pp. 17–18, note 1).
- 21.
Letter from Keynes to Harrod, 14th December 1922.
- 22.
Richard Braithwaite (1900–1990), also a philosophy undergraduate, a year senior to Ramsey also became a close acquaintance of Harrod (1959a, p. 321). He taught philosophy at Cambridge from 1934 to 1967.
- 23.
See Harrod (1967a, pp. 64–65, footnote 3).
- 24.
Bonn participated in the peace negotiations at Versailles and was an expert in the issue of reparations. In the 1920s, during the German Hyperinflation, Bonn was the most articulate advocate of the theory tracing inflation to balance-of-payments disequilibrium and exchange rate depreciation which ran counter the established view running from budget deficits to money supply and prices based on the quantity theory of money. Bonn translated into German Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919). Between 1921 and 1923, Palyi also taught at the Universities of Göttingen and Kiel. Palyi highlighted psychological factors such as confidence as a fundamental determinant of the evolution of prices (Ellis 1934, pp. 257–258).
- 25.
Letter from J. D. Woodruff to Harrod, 10th January 1923, CIPC, Vol. I, p. 19. Harrod had further exchanges with Palyi discussing books and also Harrod’s proposals for reflation and free trade contained in Monetary Policy (1932) which to Palyi seemed contradictory (see Letter from Palyi to Harrod, 18th June 1932, CIPC, Vol. I, p. 164).
At this stage of his thinking, Harrod still adhered to the broad principles of the quantity theory of money and he probably opposed to its outright rejection by Bonn. At the time, the main criticism leveled against the quantity theory was that it was a truism and that its validity rested upon the ceteris paribus assumption which did not hold in the real world; but as that it remained a “dowdy but serviceable platitude” (Robertson 1922, p. 84). Palyi’s criticism of the quantity theory followed this line of thought.
- 26.
See Harrod (1959b) for an account of his preeminence over Viner in the discovery of the long-run cost envelope curve.
- 27.
The surviving letters on international trade only show Edgeworth’s responses. Edgeworth argues that competition among two or more producers of the same goods will be beneficial (detrimental) to the producer that can offer the goods “on lower terms in the international market.” This is applicable to different circumstances. See CIPC, Vol. I, pp. 29–30, 33–34. As put by Edgeworth (1925, ii, p. 6): “The fundamental principle of international trade is that general theory…, the Theory of exchange…which…constitutes the ‘kernel’ of most of the chief problems in economics. It is a corollary of the general theory that all the parties to a bargain look to gain by it…This is the generalized statement of the theory of comparative cost.” Edgeworth was in favor of free trade and thought, in general, that protectionism led to abuse. It is within the context that he reacted to Bickerdike’s formulation of the optimum tariff as follows: “…it is to be feared that its abuse will be considerable. It affords to unscrupulous advocates of vulgar Protection a peculiarly specious pretext for introducing the thin edge of the fiscal wedge … Let us admire the skill of the analyst, but label the subject of his investigation POISON.” However, he recognized one important limitation to free trade, technological improvement. Given an elasticity of foreign demand below one technological improvement could negatively affect an exporting country when the decline in the terms of trade would be proportionately greater than the reduction in cost. This is known in the literature as “immiserating growth.”
- 28.
See Harrod (1925b).
- 29.
This contradicts Keynes’s view of Edgeworth as having a “certain dissatisfied restlessness of body and attention which increased with age and was not good to see” (Keynes 1978a, p. 265).
- 30.
Edgeworth was the first editor of the Economic Journal (1890–1911). He resumed his responsibility as editor with Keynes between 1918 and 1925.
- 31.
Young and Lee (1993, p. 91) also argue that Edgeworth may also have recommended the use of Wicksell’s Volume II of his Lectures on Political Economy in his Lectures on Currency and Credit at Oxford. Harrod (1959a, p. 197) attributes the recommendation to read Wicksell to Moritz Bonn. Later on, Harrod (1967a, p. 307) stated: “I cannot now recall whether it was Edgeworth himself who first drew my attention to Wicksell or some professor in University or the Handelshochschule of Berlin which I visited in 1923. I am sure that it was not anyone in Cambridge.”
- 32.
Blake (1970, pp. 2, 3). On this issue, Harrod (1959a, pp. 40–41) also wrote: “I have always felt that the central educational feature of Oxford and Cambridge …is the unrivalled opportunity that the colleges provide for extensive conversation among undergraduates, who have an intense interest…in the central questions confronting mankind. …Dons have always struck me….as playing a subsidiary role in Oxford and Cambridge.”
- 33.
Brian Howard (1905–1958) was an English poet unable to fulfill his promising literary potential and known for his self-destructive behavior. He was used as a model for several characters in Evelyn Waugh’s novels. He committed suicide at the age of 52.
- 34.
As a tutor Harrod is described, with perhaps few exceptions, as conscientious, effective, inspiring, open-minded, and tolerant (Young and Lee 1993, pp. 37–38).
- 35.
- 36.
- 37.
- 38.
See Thompson, L. (2015), Chapter 6, note 1.
- 39.
Domenick Roy Harrod (1940–2013) was a journalist and a broadcaster.
- 40.
See Cooper (2012) and the obituary in the Telegraph (12th May 2005).
- 41.
See Berlin (2009, pp. 139, 175). Berlin writes: “To-day Harrod called on me. Very gloomy, and tired. Bad marriage worse than none” (Letter 18 March 1949).
- 42.
Harrod read the Tract at the end of 1923 (CIPC, Vol. I, p. 23).
- 43.
Harrod lectured regularly until 1940. Out of 38 terms that he lectured during this period 25 were about monetary issues including an introduction to money and the Federal Reserve System. Other topics included Ricardo, economic theory, population, the economic organization in Britain. See Besomi, Chronology of Harrod’s Life and Career. http://economia.unipv.it/harrod/bio/chronology.htm.
- 44.
See Harrod (1927).
- 45.
See Harrod (1927).
- 46.
H. D. Henderson and Keynes were also members of the group. For a complete list of the members of the group CIPC, Vol. I, p. 43, note 1.
- 47.
Letter from Irving Fisher (1867–1947) to Harrod, 15th December 1926. J. M. Keynes/R. Harrod Letters and Memoranda. Tokyo Archive Collection in Hiroshi (1998).
- 48.
See CIPC, Vol. I, pp. 1063–1068; Keynes letter to Harrod (17th, 24th July 1928). Ibid. (pp. 95–96, 99–101).
- 49.
See Harrod (1967a, pp. 64–65, footnote 5), and reproduced part of Ramsey’s apologetic letter in an article on increasing returns written in a volume honoring Edward Chamberlin. The complete letter is reproduced in CIPC, Vol. I, pp. 109–112.
- 50.
- 51.
- 52.
In his review of Pigou’s “Theory of Unemployment” (1934d), Harrod argued that had the former assumed an imperfect market structure, which was more realistically than perfect competition, he would have realized that a reduction in real wages would contract output and thus fail to lead to full employment. Imperfect competition implied that marginal labor costs may fall in the short period which meant that the “wage consistent with an equilibrium with a higher volume of wage good output would probably be higher than or equal to and not lower than that appropriate to the lower volume” (p. 27). In addition, the equilibrium condition in imperfect completion equated the real wage with the marginal revenue derived from the employment of labor. In turn, marginal revenue depended on the elasticities of the demand for goods. Harrod thought that a reduction in real wages meant a transfer of purchasing power from wage to non-wage earners and that the latter’s demand elasticvity was smaller than the former. As a result, a decline in real wages meant a reduction in marginal revenue. In addition, Harrod assumed that the decline in marginal revenues would outspace the fall in wages and thus lead to a contraction in output (pp. 28–29).
- 53.
Letter from Harrod to Sidney Weintraub and Robinson to Weintraub (10th and 18th December 1970) cited in Lodewijks (1990, p. 10).
- 54.
The committee was appointed on the 28th May 1934 by the Hebdomadal Council of Oxford University.
- 55.
- 56.
Letter from Harrod to Henderson, 11 June 1934, CPIC, Vol. I, p. 278.
- 57.
Letter from Harrod to Meade, 4 October 1934, CIPC, Vol. I, p. 294. In the letter to Henderson (see footnote 15) Harrod proposed the creation of a small group of economists (two or three of us) and in the letter to Meade the creation of a committee.
- 58.
Harrod nicknamed the group the Trade Cycle group. See Besomi, op. cit. and Young (1989).
- 59.
Ayer’s biographer Rogers (1999, p. 117) referred to Language, Truth and Logic as “the tight, bold and lucid integration of Moorean analysis, Russellian Logic and Viennese Positivism.” Ayer (2002 [1986], p. 310) asserts that the opening sentence to Russell’s (1961 [1928], p. 9) “provided a motto throughout my philosophical career” and this sentence centers on the nature of proposition: “I wish to propose for the reader’s favorable consideration a doctrine which may, I fear, appear wildly paradoxical and subversive. The doctrine in question is this: that it is undesirable to believe a proposition when there is no ground whatever for supposing it true…”
- 60.
These are “genuine propositions.” Propositions that are neither certain a priori and that fail to satisfy the verification criterion are metaphysical. For Ayer, metaphysical propositions (such as those relating to the existence of God or related to deriving any truth about the universe) were simply nonsense. An important part of Language, Truth and Logic was a refutation of metaphysics and metaphysically minded philosophers.
- 61.
Harrod viewed induction as comprising three stages (Harrod 1956a, p. 12). The first stage refers to the generalizations from observed similarities in experience. The second stage proceeds from the uniformities among certain kinds of phenomena implied by the first stage to “the uniformity among the relations between them that have not yet been examined and the uniformity in the behavior of unexamined phenomena of a similar kind.” The third stage consists in arguing from “further observations to further generalizations”, ibid. Only in the third stage can a prior probability be assumed, on the basis of the probability in favor of uniformity established in the second stage. Since a priori probability regarding uniformity of nature is not assumed in the first and second stages, valid inductive generalizations can be made without assuming prior probabilities regarding the uniformity of nature. See also, ibid., p. 258; Harrod (1960b).
- 62.
- 63.
Between 1918 (when the Liberal Party split between Lloyd George and H. H. Asquith) and 1929, the Liberals obtained on average 25% of the vote reaching a maximum and minimum of 30 and 17.6% in the 1923 and 1924 elections. Thereafter in 1931, the Liberals’ share of the vote dropped to 6.8% reaching an overall low of 2.7% in the 1955 election. The Liberals regained ground in the polls starting with the 1974 (February) election where they obtained 19.3% of the vote. The differences between Lloyd George and Asquith emerged during 1915–1916 over the conscription issue. In 1916, Asquith who had served as prime minister resigned over the formation of a war council to run the war pushed by Lloyd George with the support of the Conservative, Unionist, and Labor Parties. Lloyd George became prime minister until 1922.
- 64.
See Sloman (2015). The Liberal Party was crucial in the creation of a Welfare State. The progressive character of the Liberal Party was embodied in Lloyd George’s Peoples Budget of 1909 which sought to finance social expenditure with a range of taxes including duties on land such as a tax on the increased value of land, a petrol duty, and a higher income tax. Lloyd George also introduced old age pensions, passed an educational reform, and gave the right to vote to women over thirty.
- 65.
Harrod was also “secretary of the don’s liberal association” (ibid).
- 66.
Lindemann was born in Baden-Baden Germany and studied in Germany, Scotland, and France. He did some early research proving the theories of Einstein. He left Germany in 1915 and joined the staff of the Royal Aircraft Factory at Farnborough (Hampshire, England).
- 67.
At the initiative of Lindemann, between 1931 and 1933 Einstein visited Oxford three times where he lectured on physics, more specifically on recent development in physics, and on the method of theoretical physics. Harrod met Einstein and describes him in the following way: “He was a charming person, and we entered into relations of easy intimacy with him…Einstein divided his time between his mathematics and playing the violin; as one crossed the quad, one was privileged to hear the strains coming from his rooms. In our Governing Body I sat next to him; we had a green baize table-cloth; under cover of this he held a wad of paper on his knee, and I observed that all through our meetings his pencil was in incessant progress, covering sheet after sheet with equations.”
- 68.
He became Baron Cherwell and then Viscount Cherwell in 1941 and 1945. He was Paymaster General from December 1942 to August 1945 and from October 1951 to November 1953.
- 69.
On the one hand, he generated loyalty and admiration. Lindemann became a friend and trusted personal advisor of Winston Churchill (1874–1965) before, during, and after World War II. On the other hand, he provoked hate feelings. Writing in 1936 Berlin (2004, p. 175) wrote about Lindemann in the following terms: “Lindemann is a bad man on a much bigger scale: a genuinely horrible figure, who symbolizes everything that one hates most passionately, from general cryptoness & snobbery to a love of inflicting pain on the weak & hatred of himself….really hate him more than anybody.” Mukerjee (2010, p. 233) portrays Lindemann’s sense of racism. Lindemann was also known for his anti-semitic jokes (Blake 1970, p. 14).
- 70.
Speech to the Economics Sub-faculty at Oxford, 22 July 1967. Cited in Phelps Brown (1980, p. 28).
- 71.
The official biography of Lindemann is The Prof in Two Worlds (1961) by Smith, F. 2nd Earl of Birkenhead. The most recent biography is by Adrian Fort.
- 72.
See Harrod (1959a, pp. 243–255).
- 73.
See Toye (2004).
- 74.
The other candidates included Joseph Mallalieu (Labor Party) and William Mabane (Liberal National) with 48.3 and 35.5% of the vote. The Labor Party led by Clement Attlee won the general election with 47.7% of the vote followed by the Conservative and Liberal Parties (39.7 and 9.0% of the vote). This was the first time since 1906 that the Conservative Party lost the popular vote.
- 75.
Blake (1970, pp. 9–10) describes Harrod’s public declaration of conversion to the views of the Conservative Party.
- 76.
Macmillan did not believed that the freedom of market forces produced the full employment of resources and was a strong supporter of government intervention in the economy. In the 1930s, he called for the creation of a national investment board to regulate the capital market, was in favor of reflation and low interest rates, and was one of the few conservatives that supported deficit finance. Macmillan was also critical of the quantity theory of money and understood in line with Keynes’s ideas that an increase in the money could simply translate into a greater liquidity preference on the part of the public.
- 77.
- 78.
Letter from Harrod to Macmillan (7th September 1957). Cited in Green (2002, p. 176).
- 79.
Nigel Birch, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and Enoch Powell, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury.
- 80.
Cited in Thorpe (2010, p. 72).
- 81.
The unemployment rate in 1959 reached 2.3% slightly above that of 1957 (1.6%) when Macmillan became prime minister and significantly below pre-war rates of unemployment which reached double digits between 1930 and 1935. See Mitchell, op. cit., p. 168.
- 82.
See Harrod (1944b). Population was a subject that attracted Harrod’s attention in the 1930s and 1940s. His writings on population in the 1930s are reproduced in Besomi, CIPC, Vol. III (pp. 1264–1277, 1289–1295, 1332–1334). Harrod argued in favor of raising the birth rate. Keynes (1978 [1937]) was also concerned with the economic effects of a declining birth rate and thought that population growth was a stimulus to prosperity through an increased demand for capital. Keynes argued that expansionary policies (redistribution of income and declines in interest rates) could overcome the effects of a declining or stationary situation. This contrasts with his pre-GT views as he saw a declining or stationary population as an “unmixed blessing.” See Skidelsky (1992, pp. 29–30). As pointed out by A. P. Thirlwall (2018, p. 25), Keynes (1978 [1937]) anticipated Harrod’s concepts of the warranted and natural rates of growth.
- 83.
- 84.
Cited in Howson (2011, p. 310).
- 85.
- 86.
See Howson (1975).
- 87.
CIPC, Vol. I, pp. 236–238.
- 88.
Harrod, Monetary Policy, 1932, CIPC, Vol. III, p. 1241. Britain left the Gold Standard on the 19th September 1931.
- 89.
CIPC, Vol. I, pp. 236–244. At the time, a great majority of economists in different countries advocated an active fiscal policy which included undertaking public works. These included also economists that are associated with free market policies such as Pigou (see Howson and Winch, pp. 63, 66) in England and in the United States members of the first Chicago school of economics including Henry Simmons (see Pérez Caldentey 2003).
- 90.
- 91.
See Howson (op. cit.), pp. 90–99 and also Howson and Winch (1977).
- 92.
Harrod wrote in Reforming the World’s Money (p. 40) that exchange rate depreciation was the “most potent cause of price inflation.”
- 93.
At a general level, Harrod argued in favor of a set of rules for the use of import controls including that these should be implemented only when a country is in deficit and that they not be used to discriminate against less developed countries (ibid. and also pp. 59–61).
- 94.
Ibid., p. 16; 1969, p. 333.
- 95.
- 96.
Harrod (1963, p. 169).
- 97.
See Harrod (1972, pp. 98–99).
- 98.
See Harrod (1964, p. 420).
- 99.
See Harrod (1947) and also (1967b), Harrod thought that in general a balance-of-payments deficit driven by demand reflected excessive investment rather than excessive consumption. Hinshaw (1978, p. 366) argues that the focus on the composition of demand reflects the fact that Harrod was “never a growth fanatic.” Phelps Brown (1980, pp. 31–32) argues that Harrod thought of himself as an apostle of growth economics. Other commentators (Boianovsky 2017) interpret Harrod’s focus on maintaining growth at its potential level as a shift in Harrod’s conceptual focus from the warranted to the natural rate of growth. As argued in this book (see Chapter 8), the focus on potential growth was simply an application of Harrod’s dynamics to the context of post-World War II where full employment became an explicit target of the economic policy pursued in developed countries rather than any profound change in his conceptual apparatus or a change of interest from the trade cycle to growth theory.
- 100.
See Alexander, S. S. (1952). Effects of devaluation on a trade balance. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 2, 263–278; 1959. A simplified synthesis of elasticities and absorption approaches. American Economic Review 49, 22–42. Harrod anticipated the absorption approach to the balance of payments in his 1947 book Are These Hardships Necessary?
- 101.
See, for example, Harrod’s Chapter 8 Restrictive Measures in 1955 of Policy Against Inflation (1958, pp. 171–208). An incomes policy referred to ensuring that the rate of growth of wages corresponded to that of productivity. An incomes policy would also be applicable to profits.
- 102.
See Dewey (2009, pp. 103–106).
- 103.
See Harrod (1963, pp. 225–234). The standard approach to customs unions was developed by Jacob Viner (1950). It is a static approach. It views the issue in terms of trade creation versus trade diversion. Trade creation refers to a change in production of a good from a high-cost domestic source to a lower-cost source in a partner country. In this case given the fact that the product was not imported, there is no loss in exports for any country. Trade diversion refers to a change in production from a lower-cost producer not belonging to the free trade area to a higher-cost producer belonging to the free trade area. This case assumes a discriminatory tariff reduction giving a member of the customs union a comparative cost advantage over a non-member by reducing its production costs. As a result, the member increases its production efficiency over the non-member. Viner also identified the conditions that if met by the customs union could improve its efficiency. These included the geographical extension of the customs union, the level of the external tariff adopted by the members following the formation of the customs union relative to the previous tariff level, the degree of complementarity, differences in unit costs, and the level of tariffs prevailing outside the customs union. The greater the geographical extension, the greater are the opportunities for trade creation. A greater geographical extension means a greater extension of the market and thus a greater scope for trade specialization and the generation of economies of scale. Also, a greater geographical area can also involve a greater stock of natural resources implying the possibility of a more diversified export base.
- 104.
- 105.
At the time, the existence of subsidies ensured the (near) parity between domestic and international food prices. Under Common Market rule, domestic prices would exceed international prices by the amount of tariffs.
- 106.
The first Cambridge Handbook Series was published in 1922 and titled Supply and Demand. It was authored by Hubert Henderson (1922).
- 107.
According to Young (1989, p. 30), International Economics brought Harrod to the notice of the economics profession. Harrod’s book was reviewed by Haberler who thought that excepting some caveats, the book was “an original piece of work” and “very well-reasoned and full of interesting and stimulating ideas and suggestions” (Haberler 1934, pp. 98, 103). Not all the commentators perceived the originality of the ideas contained in the book (see for example, Flux, 1934).
See CIPC, Vol. I, Letter of J. M. Keynes to Harrod, 4th February 1927, p. 87, note 1.
- 108.
See CPIC, Vol. I, p. Letter from R. H. Kahn to Harrod. 18 April 1932. CIPC, Vol. I, p. 153. The foreign trade multiplier was revived in the late 1970s and 1980s by Kennedy and Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1981 [1989]) and made dynamic in Thirlwall (1979). Harrod did not realize or was not able to make dynamic his foreign trade multiplier. Harrod introduced the accelerator effect in the fourth edition of International Economics thus making his approach dynamic but never got past a very rough sketch. (See Chapters VI and X.)
- 109.
International Economies went through five editions, 1933, 1939, 1946, 1957, and 1975 (see Chapter 6).
- 110.
An earlier batch was sent to D. H. Robertson at the end of 1934.
- 111.
Keynes GT bore the initial title of a monetary theory of production. Central to the main ideas of the book which were conceived in 1932 is the distinction between a cooperative and entrepreneur economy. Keynes defined an entrepreneur economy as a case of an exchange of money (M) for commodities (C) in order to obtain more money (M′, M′ > M). As put by Keynes (1979, p. 82): “In an entrepreneur economy…An entrepreneur is interested not in the amount of product that will fall to his share, but in the amount of money that will fall to his share.”
- 112.
Harrod also wrote: “I feel that the only way I could possibly be of any assistance is not in the elaboration of your own view, but in endeavouring to restrain you in your criticisms” (Keynes 1973a, p. 536).
- 113.
See also p. 555: “What I fear is that the less well-placed readers may not understand so much; and that the dust you want to raise will obscure the view of your central points.”
- 114.
See also, Panico (1988, pp. 133–137).
- 115.
According to Keynes, the nonsense of classical theory lay in assuming at the same time a given income but a variable propensity to save and marginal efficiency of capital schedule. Keynes (1973a, p. 559).
- 116.
Harrod made the same comment in his biography of Keynes (1951, p. 453): “I supplied a diagram purporting to reconcile the classical theory with his theory, and he incorporated this in the volume – the only diagram in it!”. O’Donnell (1999) argues that contrary to Harrod’s claim, both Harrod and Keynes contributed to the diagram and that “while the idea originated with Harrod, it was Keynes who seized on the idea and produced the drawings of both the initial and final diagrams” (p. 28). See Besomi (2000) for a contrary opinion.
- 117.
Ibid., p. 36.
- 118.
Letter from Keynes to Harrod, 10th September 1935. Keynes (1973a, pp. 557, 559, note 1). The letter was in fact written on the 14th of September.
- 119.
See Phelps Brown (1937). The other presenters included John Hicks (Mr. Keynes and the Classics) and James Meade (A Simplified Model of Mr. Keynes’ System). Harrod’s and Hick’s papers were published in Econometrica in January and April 1937.
- 120.
Geoffrey Keynes was highly impressed with Harrod’s obituary of J. M. Keynes that appeared in the London Times. See Hinshaw (op. cit., p. 367) and Phelps Brown (op. cit., p. 26). The biography was written in a short period of time on the basis of Keynes’ papers, interviews, and conversations with Keynes’s circle of friends (including Vanessa and Clive Bell, and Duncan Grant) and Harrod’s knowledge of Keynes. Harrod also travelled to the United States on a research trip. Keynes’s wife, Lydia Lopokova, did not provide any input into the book and never read it (Skidelsky 2000, p. 493).
- 121.
He also faced a few obstacles. See Skidelsky (1986, pp. xxv–xxvi).
- 122.
See also, Robinson (1947).
- 123.
Cited in Clarke, op. cit., p. 12. The original reference is Toye and Gottlieb (2005). Skidelsky (1986, p. 128) argues that Harrod explained his omission on the basis that Keynes homosexual proclivities was a phase of his youth, a “delayed adolescence” that he outgrew and that therefore did not require “attention in its own right.” He also maintains that Harrod applied the same reasoning to Keynes “early beliefs.” Later on in 1960 in an exchange with Leonard Woolf on the subject Harrod argued that he did not disclose the homosexual content of Keynes letters to Noel Annan, the Provost of King’s College, due to his indiscreetness. Woolf agreed with Harrod.
- 124.
- 125.
Skidelsky (1986, p. xxviii) quotes a letter from Keynes to Lytton Strachey (15th November 1905) stating: “I want to manage a railway or organize a Trust, or at least swindle the investing public.” Harrod decided to replace “or at least swindle the investing public” with dots. Skidelsky ultimately claims that “Harrod was a biographer in the Victorian mould” which means using biography as an “inspirational or exemplary purpose” where truth was “subordinate to uplift and also expediency.” Keynes was initially exempted (23 February to August 2016) from complying with the Military Service Act (27th January 1916) which required “all single men to attest their willingness for military service” as his work in the Treasury was considered of national importance. Yet on the 28th of February, Keynes made a formal application for exemption. Keynes wrote a letter arguing to be exempted on the grounds of being a conscientious objector: “I claim complete exemption because I have a conscientious objection to surrendering my liberty of judgment on so vital a question as undertaking military service…I am not prepared on such an issue as this to surrender my right of decision, as to what is or is not my duty to any other person, and I think it morally wrong to do so” (Keynes 1978c, p. 178). Keynes failed to appear at the hearing set in March 28 to argue his case. See Moggridge (1992, pp. 257–261) for a discussion and interpretations (of Skidelsky and Harrod) on this issue.
- 126.
See Dostaler (2007, pp. 136–137).
- 127.
Harvey Road was where Keynes’s family lived in Cambridge and where he grew up.
- 128.
Keynes criticized the frequency theory of probability (i.e., the notion that probability is a number or the result of the limit of a relative frequency; the ratio of the number of events relative to that of outcomes as the number of tries approaches infinity). The frequency theory of probability was based on the hypothesis that the outcome of any event is equally likely or equally probable (i.e., the principle of non-sufficient reason or as Keynes termed it the principle of indifference [TP, pp. 44–45]). As he put it: “The principle of indifference asserts that if there no known reason for predicating of our subject one rather than another of several alternatives, the relatively to such knowledge the assertions of each of these alternatives have an equal probability. Thus equal probabilities must be assigned to each of several arguments.” This was in itself contradictory, knowledge of a probability required carrying out an actual experiment, yet the principle of indifference implied prior knowledge of the probability assigned to any outcome. We can only know that, when tossing a coin, the probability of heads or tails is 0.5 by experiment. However, the principle of indifference does not require any experiment since the probabilities are already assigned. Keynes criticized Moore for upholding a frequency theory of probability regarding human conduct. In the Principia Ethica, Moore asked two questions “What kind of things ought to exist for their own sakes? the second in the form :What kind of actions ought we to perform?” Regarding the latter question, Moore argued the impossibility of arriving at ethical generalizations of conduct based on probability (“…any ethical law, the same must be the case ; it can be no more than a generalization : and here, owing to the comparative absence of accurate hypothetical knowledge, on which the prediction should be based, the probability is comparatively small.” Moore 1971 [1903], p. 155). In this sense, Moore argued that the justification of individual actions required knowing their consequences with certainty. The TP provided the basis to judge individual actions on the basis of their likely rather than certain consequences.
- 129.
The economists include, among others, J. Angel, D. Dillard, R. Hawtrey, H. Henderson, F. Hayek, L. Klein, H. Phelps Brown, F, L. Robbins, and D. M. Wright.
- 130.
Skidelsky (2000, p. 495) argues that “a fair generalization would be that those reviewers who knew Keynes best liked the biography least.” From my point of view, this is an exaggeration. Hawtrey knew Keynes much better than Henderson and provided a much more positive review than Henderson.
- 131.
Henderson (1951, p. 20).
- 132.
Ibid., p. 21.
- 133.
Glendinning (2008, p. 400).
- 134.
- 135.
On this particular issue, see Carabelli (1988), Fitzgibbons (1988), and O’Donnell (1989). According to Clarke (1996, pp. 206–207), Skidelsky’s first volume (Hopes Betrayed, 1983) supplied an account of the logical connection between Moore’s doctrine and Keynes’s politics through Keynes’s TP. But it was Moggridge (1992) due to the availability of the research of Carabelli, Fitzgibbons, and O’Donnell when he wrote his biography of Keynes “to integrate these concerns by making out a case for the important role, of the period of the creation of Probability in bringing Keynes out from the inwardness and ultra-rationality of his ‘early beliefs’ towards a view of the world that could link ‘science and art’ his duty to his friends and an active role in the wider phenomenal world.” This research is integrated into Skidelsky’s second volume of the biography of Keynes (The Economist as Saviour, 1992). One of the criticisms of Harrod present in both biographies of Moggridge and Skidelsky is the omission of some features of Keynes’s personality, including his homosexuality, mentioned above, and the view of Moore’s influence and his Early Beliefs as being something transitory that Keynes outgrew over time. Skidelsky (2000, p. 497) also criticizes Harrod’s portrayal as Keynes as a radical that became a liberal conservative over time.
- 136.
Skidelsky (2000, p. 150) claims that Harrod was not employed as the Treasury because he was said to lack judgment. From his point of view, Harrod was too high handed. Also, he feels that Harrod’s “life was to be embittered by his wartime career failure.”
- 137.
Harrod’s experience at the S. Branch is described in the Prof. (1959a), pp. 187–228.
- 138.
Boyd also became Chief of Naval Air Equipment in 1943, and in 1944 and 1945 Vice Admiral and Admiral.
- 139.
See Phelps Brown (1980, p. 22).
- 140.
- 141.
United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference (1944).
- 142.
See Harrod ( 1973, p. 191).
- 143.
He was also made an honorary student of Christ Church (1967a), an honorary fellow of Nuffield College (1958) and later on of New College (1975).
- 144.
The views of the some of the members of the Bellagio Group were presented in Maintaining and Restoring Balance in International Trade (1966) edited by W. Fellner, F. Machlup and R. Triffin. Harrod contributed Chapter 7 on the speed of adjustment.
- 145.
The volume was edited by W. A. Eltis, M. F. G. Scott, and J. N. Wolfe.
- 146.
Cited in Lodewijks, p. 14. The rejection probably refers to his failure to be elected to the Drummond Chair of Political Economy in 1945.
- 147.
Weintraub met Harrod during his six month visit to Oxford in 1957 and reconnected in the 1960s. The correspondence between both is voluminous. Weintraub’s interpretation of Keynes (The Microfoundations of Aggregate Demand and Supply, 1957) met with criticism from Robinson and Kahn but found support in Harrod.
- 148.
Letter of S. Weintraub to Hyman Minsky (29th November 1974) cited in Lodewijks (1990, p. 11).
- 149.
Ibid., p. 13
- 150.
See Besomi (2008). Besomi argues that these lectures “provide evidence of a shift of emphasis taking place, from a substantial acceptance of his role as founder of growth theory to the stress on instability and cycles” (p. 80).
- 151.
Ibid., p. 84.
- 152.
Ibid., p. 89.
- 153.
Harrod received honorary degrees from the universities of Aberdeen, Glasgow, Warwick, Pennsylvania, Poitiers, and Stockholm.
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Pérez Caldentey, E. (2019). The Life, Times, and Contributions of Roy Harrod. In: Roy Harrod. Great Thinkers in Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-74085-7_1
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