Low-Carbon City Scenarios for DKI Jakarta Towards 2030

Abstract

This study presents the results of a modelling study on greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions through which the DKI Jakarta energy sector may achieve “Low-carbon City in 2030” targets. The study assesses the effect of future GHG emission levels in DKI Jakarta and ways in which the DKI Jakarta provincial government may reach reduction targets by up to 30 % below the baseline level in 2030 through the Provincial Action Plan (RAD GRK). Using a back-casting approach, an energy development path is developed based on desirable goals, and we then seek ways to employ it.

The results of this study show that energy demand in DKI Jakarta has increased significantly, particularly as the result of increasing activity in the transportation and industrial sectors. Future energy city demand levels will be determined by population growth, economic development, transport demand generation, and end-use technology trends. Future energy supplies will correspond with future demands and decision-making regarding the energy supply mix and regarding technologies. Under the business as usual (BaU) scenario, final energy demand levels from 2005 to 2030 are estimated to increase 4.5 times from 6.7 mtoe (5.5 % of total consumption in Indonesia) to 27.9 mtoe, whereas primary energy supplies will increase from 11.3 mtoe to 50.1 mtoe. Under mitigation scenarios, final energy demand levels from 2005 to 2030 are estimated to increase 3.5-fold from 6.67 mtoe to 23.33 mtoe, and primary energy supplies will increase from 11.3 mtoe to 50 mtoe.