To Shoot or Not to Shoot: The Military in Political Transitions

Abstract

In Southeast Asia, the military’s role in transition has been prominent, particularly in the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Myanmar. In coalition with civilian opposition groups, reformist factions within the military helped usher a period of transition. In contrast, autocratic rulers in the MENA region were able to employ brutal force in attempts to crush revolts because rather than sidelining the military, they had ensured that key units were commanded by members of the ruling family, tribe, or sect. This gave those well-trained and well-armed units a vested interest in maintaining the status quo and effectively neutralized the risk and/or fallout of potential defections in times of crisis. It also cemented the family, tribe, or sect’s grip on power. The sharp contrasts in the role of the military during transition periods and the different outcomes for individual countries is the highlight of this chapter.