Abstract
As illustrated throughout our previous pages, there is a general consensus that expected returns are notoriously difficult to predict for many reasons, including modeling and econometric problems.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Capie F. (1990). Discussion on Early Asset Bubbles. Chapter in Crashes and Panics by Eugene White, ed. Dow Jones Irwin.
- 2.
De Long, J.B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L.H. and Waldmann, R.J. (1990). Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation. Journal of Finance 45 (1990): 379ā395.
- 3.
De Long, J.B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L.H. and Waldmann, R.J. (1990). Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Political Economy 98 (1990): 703ā738.
- 4.
Scharfstein, D. and Stein, K. (1990). Herd Behavior and Investment. American Economic Review 80 (1990): 465ā479.
- 5.
Gallant R., Rossi, P. and Tauchen, G. (1992). Stock Prices and Volume. Review of Financial Studies 5 (1992): 199ā242.
- 6.
Hiemstra, C. and Jones, J. (1994). Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation. Journal of Finance 49 (1994): 1639ā1664.
- 7.
Jennings, R., Starks, L. and Fellingham, J. (1981). An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival. Journal of Finance 36 (1981): 143ā161.
- 8.
Silvapulle, P. and Choi, J.S (1999). Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation: Korean Evidence. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999): 59ā76.
- 9.
Lev, B. āOn the Usefulness of Earnings and Earnings Research: Lessons and Directions from Two Decades of Empirical Research. Journal of Accounting Research, Supplement 27 (1989): 153ā201.
- 10.
Lev, B. (1989). On the Usefulness of Earnings and Earnings Research: Lessons and Directions from Two Decades of Empirical Research. Journal of Accounting Research, Supplement 27 (1989): 153ā201.
- 11.
Roll, R. (1988). āR2ā. Journal of Finance 43 (1988): 541ā566.
- 12.
Easton, P.D., Harris, T.S. and Ohlson, J.A. (1992). Aggregate Accounting Earnings Can Explain Most of Security Returns. The Case of Long Event Windows. Journal of Accounting and Economics 15 (1992): 119ā142.
- 13.
Frankel, R. and Lee, C. (1996). Accounting Valuation, Market Expectation, and the Book-to-Market Effect. Journal of Finance (1996): 1040ā1041.
- 14.
Harris, R. (1999). The Accuracy, Bias and Efficiency of Analystsā Long Run Earnings Growth Forecasts. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting (1999): 725ā755.
- 15.
Ohanian, L. E. (1996). When the Bubble Bursts: Psychology or Fundamentals? Business Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) Jan/Feb (1996): 3ā13.
- 16.
Flood, R.P. and Garber, P.M. (1994). Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching (Cambridge and London: MIT Press, 1994).
- 17.
Galbraith, J.K. (2009, 1955, 1929). The Great Crash. Houghton Mifflin: Boston (1955) in Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (2009) p. 212.
- 18.
Tirole, J. (1985). Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations. Econometrica 53 (1985): 1499ā1528.
- 19.
Shiller, R.J. (1981). Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? American Economic Review 71 (1981): 421ā436.
- 20.
Shiller, R.J. (1981). The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance 36 (1981): 291ā311.
- 21.
De Long, J.B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L.H. and Waldmann, R.J. (1990). Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation. Journal of Finance 45 (1990): 379ā395.
De Long, J.B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L.H. and Waldmann, R.J. (1990). Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Political Economy 98 (1990): 703ā738.
- 22.
Gallant R., P. Rossi and G. Tauchen (1992). Stock Prices and Volume. Review of Financial Studies 5 (1992): 199ā242.
- 23.
Campbell, J.Y., Grossman, S.J. and Wang, J. (1993). Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns. Quantitative Journal of Economics 108 (1993): 905ā939.
- 24.
Hiemstra, C. and Jones, J. (1994). Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation. Journal of Finance 49 (1994): 1639ā1664.
- 25.
Scharfstein, David S., and Stein, J.C. (1990) Herd behavior and investment. American Economic Review 80: 465ā479.
- 26.
Sias, R. and Starks, L. (1997). Return Autocorrelation and Institutional Investors. Journal of Financial Economics 46 (1997): 103ā131.
- 27.
Klemkosky, R.C. (1977). The impact and efficiency of institutional net trading imbalances. Journal of Finance 32: 79ā86.
- 28.
Grossman, S.J. and Stiglitz, J.E. (1976). Information and Competitive Price Systems. American Economic Review 66 (1976): 246ā254.
- 29.
Cornell, B. and Landsman, W. (1989). Security Price Response to Quarterly Earnings Announcements and Analystsā Forecast Revisions. The Accounting Review 64 (1989): 680ā692.
- 30.
Koenker, R. and Bassett, G. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica 46 (1): 33ā50.
- 31.
Beaver, W.H., McAnally, M. and Stinson, C.H. (1997), The Information Content of Earnings and Prices: A Simultaneous Equations Approach, Journal of Accounting and Economics 23: 53ā81.
- 32.
Shiller, R.J. and Pound, J. (1989) Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest and Information Among Investors. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 12 (1989): 47ā66.
- 33.
Beaver, W.H., McAnally, M. and Stinson, C.H. (1997). The Information Content of Earnings and Prices: A Simultaneous Equations Approach. Journal of Accounting and Economics 23: 53ā81.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Copyright information
Ā© 2017 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Porras, E.R. (2017). Fundamental Versus Contagion Variables to Explain Returns. In: Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 2. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-52442-3_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-52442-3_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-137-52441-6
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-52442-3
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)