Abstract
This chapter analyzes Latin American performance in 2003–2013, to evaluate two ideas: whether the first decade of the 2000s constituted “Golden Years” and whether the 2010s were likely to be a “Latin American Decade.” We compare the region’s 2003–2013 performance with that in the 1980s and 1990s, evaluate how it performed in the sub-periods 2003–2007 and 2008–2013, and compare the region’s 2003–2013 indicators with those of other developing regions during the same period. The chapter concludes that the period 2003–2013 was a golden decade only when compared with the region’s own performance during the previous two decades but not when compared to other developing regions. Furthermore, the “Golden Years” were 2003–2007, half a decade. Therefore, it is concluded that there is no indication of a “Latin American Decade” in the past or in the forthcoming periods.
The authors are gratefully for the valuable research assistance from Matheus Vianna. All usual caveats apply.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
- 2.
Although the 2008–2009 financial crisis had global effects, it concentrated in North America and Western Europe. Hence, the term North-Atlantic financial crisis is more appropriate than the most commonly used one of global financial crisis.
- 3.
We generally use the acronym LA to refer to Latin America, but some statistics relate to the Caribbean –and hence the use of the acronym LAC, to include the latter. Given the relative size of the Caribbean, the statistics for LAC tend to be fairly similar to those for LA.
- 4.
In the 1960s, LAC grew at an average rate of 5.4% and in the 1970s at 5.6% (Moreno 2011: 20).
- 5.
Erten and Ocampo (2013) argue that there were four commodity super-cycles of around 30–40 years for the period 1865–2010. They suggest that the fourth super-cycle started precisely in the early 2000s and is still going on, now in its downward phase.
- 6.
Yu (2011), for instance, analyzed how the composition of growth in China, particularly high investment rates that support industrialization and urbanization, have contributed to a large and growing demand for commodities over the last decade.
- 7.
Dussel (2005).
- 8.
See Rathbone (2013), and Nobody’s Backyard, The Economist, September 9th 2010.
- 9.
See, for instance, the articles: A Latin America Decade?; and So Near and Yet so Far, The Economist, September 9th 2010.
- 10.
- 11.
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela.
- 12.
We eliminated from Table 7.2 the World Bank estimates for the 1980s, as they showed a decline of poverty in the midst of the Latin American debt crisis. In contrast, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC ) numbers shown in Table 7.3 indicate a significant increase in poverty during that decade.
- 13.
Differently from the World Bank and other official indicators that are defined in terms of dollar value, identical for all countries in terms of purchasing power parity, the ECLAC’s index considers each countries’ specific “food basket” and respects the prevailing consumption structures (United Nations 2010).
- 14.
The chapter did not intend to discuss why the region underperformed other emerging markets, especially regarding the gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the external sector. Future works can explore this subject. In addition, it is important to note that we work with aggregate data. In this way, some countries will be more representative in the sample than others will. In LAC, this is clearly the case for Brazil and Mexico. According to data from 2013, these countries together are responsible for 52% of the population and 57% of the GDP of the region. Future works can also explore this point and analyze the results within the region.
References
Cárdenas, M. (2011, July 11). Latin America’s Decade: A Once in a Lifetime Opportunity. Brookings Opinion. Available in http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2011/07/11-latin-americas-decade-cardenas. Accessed 14 Dec 2014.
Dussel, P. (2005). The Implications of China’s Entry into the WTO for Mexico (Global Issue Papers, N. 24). Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlín.
Erten, B., & Ocampo, J. A. (2013). Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century. World Development, 44, 14–30.
Moreno, L. A. (2011). La Década de América Latina y el Caribe, una oportunidad real. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Segunda Edición Ampliada.
Ocampo, J. A. (2012, September 14). Let’s Be Clear: This Will Not Be Latin America’s Decade. Vox-Lacea. Available in http://vox.lacea.org/?q=blog/latam_economic_growth. Accessed 10 Sept 2014.
Rathbone, J. P. (2013, May 12). Doubts Come to Surface About the Decade of Latin America. Financial Times. Available in http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b622f752-b967-11e2-9a9f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OOmpOYD4. Accessed 14 Dec 2014.
Rathbone, J. P. (2014, October 30). The Party Is Ending for Latin America. Financial Times. Available in http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e9d02da2-5e9f-11e4-b81d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OOmpOYD4. Accessed 15 Dec 2014.
Talvi, E. (2014, September). Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities in an Uncertain World: One Region, Three Latin Americas. Brookings Global – CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative, Latin America Macroeconomic Outlook: A Global Perspective.
Talvi, E., & Munyo, I. (2013, June). Are the Golden Years for Latin America Over? Brookings Global – CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative, Latin America Macroeconomic Outlook: A Global Perspective.
The Economist. (2010a, September 9). Nobody’s Backyard. The Economist. Available in http://www.economist.com/node/16990967. Accessed 16 Dec 2014.
The Economist. (2010b, September 9). A Latin American Decade? Available in http://www.economist.com/node/16964135. Accessed 15 Dec 2014.
The Economist. (2010c, September 9). So Near and Yet so Far. Available in http://www.economist.com/node/16964114. Accessed 14 Dec 2014.
United Nations. (2010). El Progreso de América Latina y el Caribe hacia los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio. Desafíos para lograrlos con igualdad.
Utar, H., & Torres Ruiz, L. B. (2013). International Competition and Industrial Evolution: Evidence from the Impact of Chinese Competition on Mexican Maquiladoras. Journal of Development Economics, 105, 267–287.
Velasco, A. (2011, 18 May). Latin America’s Glossed Decade. Project Syndicate. Available in http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/latin-america-s-glossed-decade. Accessed 14 Dec 2014.
Velasco, A. (2013). Emerging Markets Nirvana Lost. Project Syndicate. Published at: 9 November 2013. Available at: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-absence-of-structural-change-in-latin-american-economies-by-andres-velasco. Accessed 3 Dec 2014.
Yu, Y. (2011). Identifying the Linkage Between Major Mining Commodity Circle and China Economic Growth: Its Implications for Latin America (IMF Working Paper, No. 11/86). International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Annex: Composition of Groups
Annex: Composition of Groups
7.1.1 Commonwealth of Independent States
Composed of 12 countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
7.1.2 Emerging and Developing Asia
Composed of 29 countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.
7.1.3 Latin America and the Caribbean
Composed of 32 countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
7.1.4 Middle East and North Africa
Composed of 20 countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
7.1.5 Sub-Saharan Africa
Composed of 45 countries: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, South Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Copyright information
© 2019 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Ocampo, J.A., Bastian, E.F., Reis, M. (2019). On the “Latin American Decade”. In: Grivoyannis, E. (eds) International Integration of the Brazilian Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-46260-2_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-46260-2_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, New York
Print ISBN: 978-1-137-46295-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-46260-2
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)