Postscript: El Niño and Human Future

Abstract

One thing that has been missing from this book is the effect of climate change on El Niño. The primary reason for this is the large uncertainty that currently exists in the science of future El Niño. Changes to El Niño itself are uncertain, although changes to teleconnections are more likely. This is because the atmosphere responds much more quickly to rising greenhouse gas concentrations than do the oceans, which are slower at heating up. This postscript concludes with a discussion of the 2015-16 El Niño, which had unexpected characteristics and demonstrated the need for continued research on El Niño in the past and present.