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Industrial Structure and Political Outcomes: The Case of the 2016 US Presidential Election

  • Thomas FergusonEmail author
  • Paul Jorgensen
  • Jie Chen
Chapter

Abstract

This paper analyzes the US presidential election of 2016, examining the patterns of industrial structure and party competition in both the major party primaries and the general election. It attempts to identify the new, historically specific factors that led to the upheavals, especially the steady growth of a “dual economy” that locks more and more Americans out of the middle class. It draws extensively on a newly assembled, more comprehensive database to identify the specific political forces that coalesced around each candidate, including the various stages of the Trump campaign.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Roberto Scazzieri and Ivano Cardinale for their patience and friendly assistance. They are also very grateful to Francis Bator, Walter Dean Burnham, Robert Johnson, William Lazonick, Benjamin Page, Servaas Storm, Roger Trilling, and Peter Temin for many discussions and advice. Edward Kane pointed out a place where details on some statistical tests had inadvertently gone missing. We are further indebted to Page and Trilling for detailed editorial suggestions. Thanks also to the Institute for New Economic Thinking for support of data collection. Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s conference in Edinburgh, Scotland, and published as Working Paper No. 66 of the Institute; and a conference organized by the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome. It is worth emphasizing that the paper represents the views of the authors and not any of the institutions with which they are affiliated.

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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of Massachusetts BostonBostonUSA
  2. 2.University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyEdinburgUSA

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