Analysis and Interpretation: Calibration-Verification
One of the main goals of historical climatology is quantitative climate reconstruction for periods before instrumental measurements. This chapter explains two important steps of the reconstruction procedure: calibration and subsequent verification. A widely used method of reconstruction requires a relatively long period for which both data from historical climatology and instrumental measurements exist. A portion of the data from the overlapping period is used to construct a transfer function. Simple linear regression is frequently used to estimate the transfer function coefficients. Another part of the overlapping period is used thereafter to independently verify the reconstruction skill of the transfer function. Several statistics are calculated within the calibration and verification processes to evaluate the quality of the two procedures. Interpretation of those statistics is provided in this chapter. Possible variants of the common process of reconstruction and problems of uncertainty estimates are mentioned in the conclusion.
This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR within the National Sustainability Program I (NPU I), grant number LO1415.
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