Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

China’s Food Security: Is it a National, Regional or Global Issue?

  • Chapter
Book cover China and the EU in Context

Abstract

The maintenance of high levels of food security (with over 95 per cent self-sufficiency in grains is a policy that was officially introduced in 1996 and has been implemented thereafter) is a political imperative in China, but not a physical or economic issue now nor in the period to 2030 and probably longer. Supply projections by the Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP) and FAO projections suggest that on average China could continue to be self-sufficient for rice and wheat until 2030. Only soya bean and maize imports for livestock feed will continue to rise. Soya bean and maize imports may increase from the current nearly 60 Mt to 100Mt and to 30 Mt per annum respectively by 2030, which will require a major yet feasible expansion in production in its traditional sources (USA, Brazil and Argentina) or new ones. But this will not be an economic issue. Such imports will require a minute fraction (considerably less than 1 per cent) of China’s more than £2 trillion foreign exchange reserves (using an exchange rate of 9.5 yuan to the £ here and elsewhere in the chapter).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

  1. J. Huang and S. Rozelle (2003) ‘Trade Reform, WTO and China’s Food Economy in the 21st Century’, Pacific Economic Review, 8, 143–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. J. Huang, S. Rozelle and M. Chang (2004) ‘The Nature of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in China and Implications of WTO Accession’, World Bank Economic Review, 18, 59–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. K. Anderson, J. Huang and E. Lanchovichina (2004) ‘Will China’s WTO Accession Worsen Farm Household Income?’China Economic Review, 15, 443–5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. J. Huang (2010) ‘Sixty Years of China’s Agricultural Development and Three Decades of the Reform Miracle: Institutional Innovation, Technological Advancement and Market Reforms’, Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 1, 4–18.

    Google Scholar 

  5. NBSC (2011) Statistic Yearbook2011, China Statistical Publishing House, Beijing.

    Google Scholar 

  6. J. Bai, B. Wahl, B. Lohmar, and J. Huang (2010) ‘Food Away from Home in Beijing: Effects of Wealth, Time and “Free Meals”’. China Economic Review, 21, 432–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. J. Huang, J. Yang and S. Rozelle (2012) ‘Changing Food Consumption Pattern and Demand for Agri-based Industrial Products in China: Implications for Southeast Asia’s Agricultural Trade’ in P.S. Intal Jr., S. Oum and M. J.O. Simorangkir (eds), Agricultural Development, Trade and Regional Cooperation in Developing East Asia, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

    Google Scholar 

  8. K. Morton (2012) ‘Learning by Doing: China’s Role in the Global Governance of Food Security’, Working Paper 30, Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business.

    Google Scholar 

  9. J. Huang, R. Tao, Z. Xu, M. Liu and S. Rozelle (2011) ‘China’s Agricultural and Rural Development (1978–2008)’, Cengage Learning Asia Pte. Led, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  10. J. Y. Lin (1992) ‘Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China’. American Economic Review, 82, 34–51.

    Google Scholar 

  11. J. Huang, and S. Rozelle (1996) ‘Technological Change: Rediscovering the Engine of Productivity Trowth in China’s Agricultural Economy’. Journal of Development Economics, 49, 337–69.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. K. Chen (2011) ‘Foresight Regional Case Study R2. Agricultural R&D as An Engine of Productivity Growth: China’. Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming. Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London.

    Google Scholar 

  13. R. Hu, Q. Liang and J. Huang (2009) ‘Private Agricultural Research Investments in China: Current Situation and Past Trend’, China Soft Science, 7, 28–34.

    Google Scholar 

  14. NBSC (2001) Statistics Yearbook 2001, China Statistical Publishing House, Beijing.

    Google Scholar 

  15. J. Wang, S. Rothausen, D. Conway, L. Zhang, W. Xiong, I. Holman, and Y. Li (2012) China’s Water-Energy Nexus: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Groundwater Use for Agriculture. Environmental Research Letters, 7.

    Google Scholar 

  16. J. Wang, Z. Xu, J. Huang, and S. Rozelle (2005) ‘Incentives in Water Management Reform: Assessing the Effect on Water Use, Production and Poverty in the Yellow River Basin’, Environment and Development Economics, 10, 769–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. J. Huang and S. Rozelle (2006) ‘The Emergence of Agricultural Commodity Markets in China’. China Economic Review, 17, 266–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. J. Huang, X. Wang, H. Zhi, Z. Huang and S. Rozelle (2011) ‘Subsidies and Distortions in China’s Agriculture: Evidence from Producer-level Data’. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 55, pp. 53–71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. D. Chadwick (2012) ‘Improving Manure Nutrient Management Towards Sustainable Intensification in China’, SAIN Policy Brief No. 6.

    Google Scholar 

  20. S. Jin, H. Ma, and J. Huang (2010) ‘Productivity, Efficiency and Technical Change: Measuring the Performance of China’s Transforming Agriculture’. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 33 (3), 191–207; L. Hou, Y. Zhang, J. Zhan, and T. Glauben (2012) ‘Marginal Revenue of Land and Total Factor Productivity in Chinese Agriculture’. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 22 (1): 167–78.

    Google Scholar 

  21. D. Norse (2011) ‘Greater Food Security and A Better Environment through Improved Nitrogen Fertilizer Management, SAIN Policy Brief No. 2.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Y.P. Wei, B. Davidson., D. Chen and R. White (2009) ‘Balancing the Economic, Social and Environmental Dimensions of Agroecosystems: An Integrated modelling Approach’. Agriculture, Environment and Ecosystem, 131, 263–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. J. Guo, X. Liu, Y. Zhang, J. Shen, W. Han, W. Zhang, P. Christie, K. Goulding, P. Vitousek and F. Zhang (2010) ‘Significant Acidification in Major Chinese Croplands’, Science 327, 1008–1010.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. R. Ash, R. Porter and T. Summers (2012) China, the EU and China’s Twelfth Five-year Programme, Europe China Research and Advice Network, London.

    Google Scholar 

  25. L. R. Brown (1995) Who Will Feed China? Wake-Up Call for a Small Planet (Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC).

    Google Scholar 

  26. N. Alexandratos (1996) ‘China’s Projected Cereals Deficits in a World Context’. Agricultural Economics, 15, 1–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. S. Fan and M. Agcaoili-Sombilla (1997) ‘Why projections on China’s Future Food Supply and Demand Differ’. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 41, 169–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. P. Huffstutter and S. Niu (2012)’Insight: U.S. Barnyards help China Super-size Food Production’. Reuters. 20 April. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/20/us-usa-china-food-idUSBRE83J05R20120420.

    Google Scholar 

  29. F. Zai (2011) ‘Meat and Dairy Consumption Transition and Nutrition Transition in China’, Presented at UK China Workshop

    Google Scholar 

  30. T. Masuda and P.D. Goldsmith (2010) ‘China’s Meat Consumption: An Income Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections’. Poster prepared for presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 2010 AAEA, CAES, and WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, 25–27 July, 2010. National Soya bean Research Laboratory and University of Illinois. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/61601/2/Poster11972AAEA_MasudaGoldsmith20100503b.pdf.

    Google Scholar 

  31. H. Xiao, J. Wang, L. Oxley and H. Ma (2012) ‘The Evolution of Hog Production and Potential Sources for Future Growth in China’. Food Policy, 37, 366–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. J. Huang, J. Yang and S. Rozelle (2012) ‘Changing Food Consumption Pattern and Demand for Agri-based Industrial Products in China: Implications for Southeast Asia’s Agricultural Trade’ in P.S. Intal Jr., S. Oum and M.J.O. Simorangkir (eds), Agricultural Development, Trade and Regional Cooperation in Developing East Asia.

    Google Scholar 

  33. H. Qiu, J. Huang, M. Keyzer and W. van Veen (2008) ‘Policy Options for China’s Bio-ethanol Development and the Implications for Its Agricultural Economy’, China and World Economy, 16, 112–24.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. H. Qiu, J. Huang, M. Keyzer, W. van Veen, S. Rozelle, G. Fisher, and T. Ernolieva (2011) ‘Biofuel Development, Food Security and the Use of Marginal Land in China’, Journal of Environmental Quality, 40, 1058–1067.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. A. Hu and J. Liang (2011) ‘China’s Green Era Begins’, China’s Green Revolution: Energy, Environment and the 12th Five-Year Plan, China Dialogue, http://www.chinadialogue.net/

    Google Scholar 

  36. J. Huang (2012) Views on China’s Food Security and Trade, unpublished, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Ministry of Agriculture, 2012, ‘The Twelfth Five Year Plan for Agricultural and Rural Economy’.

    Google Scholar 

  38. L. Guo, J. Lindsay and P. Munro-Faure (2008) ‘China: Integrated Land Policy Reform in a Context of Rapid Urbanisation’, Agricultural and Rural Development Notes: Land Policy and Administration, issue 36. (World Bank, Washington DC).

    Google Scholar 

  39. J. Liu, M. Liu, H. Tian, D. Zhuang, Z. Zhang, W. Zhang, X. Tang, and X. Deng (2005) ‘Spatial and Temporal Patterns of China’s Cropland during 1990–2000: An Analysis Based on Landsat TM Data’. Remote Sensing of Environment, 98, 442–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. S. Tan, N. Heerink, G. Kruseman and F. Qu (2008) ‘Do Fragmented Land Holdings Have Higher Production Costs? Evidence from Rice Farmers in Northeastern Jiangxi Province, P.R. China’. China Economic Review, 19, 347–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. S. Feng, N. Heerink, R. Ruben, and F. Qu (2010) ‘Land Rental Market, Off-farm Employment and Agricultural Production in Southeast China: A Plot-level Case Study’, China Economic Review, 21, 598–606.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. R. F. Ash (2011) Feeding Billions: Food Security in China, ISN Security Watch. Available at http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=127105ý.

    Google Scholar 

  43. V. Smil (1996) ‘Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs’. East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii.

    Google Scholar 

  44. C. Carter, F. Zhong and Jing Zhu (2012) ‘Advances in Chinese Agriculture and Its Global Implications’. Applied Economics and Policy, 34 (1): 1–36.

    Google Scholar 

  45. L. Jin and W. Young (2001) ‘Water Use in Agriculture in China: Importance, Challenges, and Implications for Policy’. Water Policy, 3 (3), 215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. USDA (2011) ‘China Peoples Republic, Grain and Feed Annual’. GAIN Report No CH1014 USDA Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  47. W. Xiong, D. Conway, E. Lin, Y. Xu, H. Ju, J. Jiang, I. Holman, and Y. Li (2009)’Future Cereal Production in China: The Interaction of Climate Change, Water Availability and Socioeconomic Scenarios’, Global Environmental Change, 19, 34–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. P. Wu, J. Jiming Jin and X. Zhao (2010) ‘Impact of Climate Change and Irrigation Technology Advancement on Agricultural Water use in China’, Climatic Change, 100, 797–805.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. D Norse (2005) ‘Non-point Pollution from Crop Production: Global, Regional and National Issues’. Pedosphere, 15, 499–508.

    Google Scholar 

  50. MEP (2010) ‘Technical Guideline on Environmental Safety Application of Chemical Fertilizers’, National Environmental Protection Standard, HJ555–2010.

    Google Scholar 

  51. D. Norse (2011) ‘Greater Food Security and a Better environment through Improved Nitrogen Fertilizer Management’, SAIN Policy Brief No. 2.

    Google Scholar 

  52. J. Guo, X. Liu, Y. Zhang, J. Shen, W. Han, W. Zhang, P. Christie, K. Goulding, P. Vitousek and F. Zhang (2010) ‘Significant Acidification in Major Chinese Croplands’, Science 327, 1008–10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. S. Wilkinson, D. Mills, R. Illidge and W.J. Davies (2011) ‘How Is Ozone Pollution Reducing our Food Supply?’, J. Experimental Botany, 63, 527–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. X. Wang, W. Manning, Z. Feng and Y. Zhu (2007) ‘Ground- level Ozone in China: Distribution and Effect on Crop Yields’, Environmental Pollution, 147, 394–400.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. S. Nuiping (2012) ‘Factbox: China’s Voracious Appetite Spurs Farm Expansion’. Reuters, 20 April, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/20/us-usa-china-food-factbox-idUSBRE83J05V20120420.

    Google Scholar 

  56. F. Zhong and J. Zhu (2005) ‘Improving Security and Efficiency of the Government Grain Reserve System’ in B. H. Sonntag, J. Huang, S. Rozelle and J H. Skerritt (eds) China’s Agricultural and Rural development in the Early 21st Century ACIAR Monograph 116.

    Google Scholar 

  57. State Council, (1996) White Paper — Grains Issues in China.

    Google Scholar 

  58. J. Huang and R. Scott (1998) China’s Grain Economy toward the 21st Century. China’s Agricultural Press, Beijing; J. Huang, J. Yang and H. Qiu (2012) ‘Reflections on the National Food Security Strategies and Policies in New Era’, Issues in Agricultural Economy, 3, 4–8.

    Google Scholar 

  59. Royal Society (2009) ‘Reaping the Benefits: Science and the Sustainable Intensification of Global Agriculture’; Foresight (2011) ‘The Future of Food and Farming’, Final Project Report (The Government Office for Science, London).

    Google Scholar 

  60. J. Huang, J. Yang and H. Qiu (2012) ‘Reflections on the National Food Security Strategies and Policies in New Era’ Issues in Agricultural Economy, 3, 4–8.

    Google Scholar 

  61. H. Zhang and C. Zhao (2009) The Basic Framework of Agricultural Policies in China (Chinese Finance and Economic Press, Beijing).

    Google Scholar 

  62. X. Li, F. Qu, and W. Yun (2009) ‘The Temporal and Spatial Distribution of China’s Construction Land Increment’, China Rural Economy, 4.

    Google Scholar 

  63. T. Liu, F. Qu, J. Jin, X. Shi (2008) ‘Impact of Land Fragmentation and Land Transfer on Farmers’ Land Use Efficiency’, Resource Science, 10, 1511–1516.

    Google Scholar 

  64. L. Sheng, X. Guan and J. Jiang, (2009) ‘Impact of Land Use Right Transfer on Food Security in China’, Modern Agricultural Science and Technology, 9, 278–280.

    Google Scholar 

  65. Y. Huang, H. Zhang, W. Li and Q. Liu (2011) ‘Investigation and Reflection on Rural Land Transfer’, Issues in Agricultural Economy, 5, 4–9, 110.

    Google Scholar 

  66. R. F. Ash, 2011, Feeding Billions: Food Security in China, ISN Security Watch.

    Google Scholar 

  67. USDA (2012) Agricultural Projections to 2021 Report No OCE- 2012–1. (USDA, Washington DC).

    Google Scholar 

  68. E. Contini, and G. Martha (2011) ‘Climate Change and Food security: Brazil’, Presentation at International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, 6–8 November 2011, CAAS/IFPRI, Beijing, China.

    Google Scholar 

  69. FAO (2002) World Agriculture: Towards 2015/30 (FAO, Rome).

    Google Scholar 

  70. L. Mathews (2012) Global Sugar Market Review, Commodities: Agri Updates 18 January 2012, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

    Google Scholar 

  71. OECD-FAO (2011) Agricultural Outlook 2011–2020, OECD Paris, June 2012.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  72. G. Fischer and M. Shah (2010) Farmland Investments and Food Security. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, for the World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  73. L. Cotula, S. Vermeulen, R. Leonard and J. Keeley (2009) ‘Land Grab or Development Opportunity?’ Agricultural Investment and Dand Deals in Africa. (Rome and London: FAO, IFAD and IIED).

    Google Scholar 

  74. J. Huang, R. Hu, S. Rozelle and C. Pray (2005) ‘Insect-Resistant GM Rice in Farmer Fields: Assessing Productivity and Health Effects in China’, Science, 308, 688–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. J. Wong and Y. Huang (2012) ‘China’s Food Security and Its Global Implication’. China: An International Journal, 10, 113–24.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors
  1. David Norse
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yuelai Lu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jikun Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Copyright information

© 2014 David Norse, Yuelai Lu and Jikun Huang

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Norse, D., Lu, Y., Huang, J. (2014). China’s Food Security: Is it a National, Regional or Global Issue?. In: China and the EU in Context. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137351869_8

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation