Another Take on Prospects for the Foreign Policy of the Chinese Fifth-Generation Leadership

Abstract

In 2012, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene its 18th Party Congress and formally decide who will lead the country over the next five years. Presently Vice President Xi Jinping is believed likely to replace Hu Jintao as president of the state and general secretary of the Party, while Li Kechang will probably replace Wen Jiabao as premier. Due to the continued successful reform and open-door policy of the last 30 years, China has achieved remarkable economic growth, surpassing Japan last year to become the world’s second largest economy. At the same time the so-called China threat theory has resurfaced, and many people argue that the new Chinese leadership may take a more assertive stance in foreign policy matters. People have also expressed concern regarding Xi Jinping’s close relationship with the military, which may lead to a substantial expansion of military armament.

Shin Jung-seung is the director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, Korea National Diplomatic Academy. Previously, Mr. Shin was an ROK Ambassador to China and New Zealand and directorgeneral of the Asian and Pacific Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He received a B.A. from Seoul National University and was a visiting researcher at Keio University.