Abstract
On 29 March 2019, the UK will cease to be a member of the EU. After more than four decades in the EU, Brexit will have wide-ranging implications for the UK, the EU, and third countries around the world. Uncertainty about the future EU-UK economic partnership and brinkmanship in the Brexit negotiations has started to impact the UK’s economic performance, while its post-Brexit geopolitical role and influence have come under scrutiny. But there may also be opportunities for the UK to reposition and rebrand ‘Global Britain’ in the world, including within the Commonwealth, and pursue its own independent trade policy. This chapter examines some of the key International Political Economy (IPE) implications of Brexit for the UK, the EU, and the wider global economy, including the world’s poorest nations.
This chapter was correct at the time of writing in March 2018. However, the UK and the EU continue negotiations to finalise the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement ahead of the UK formally exiting the EU on 29 March 2019. Any views expressed in this chapter are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Commonwealth Secretariat.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Withdrawal from the European Union (EU) is a right under Article 50 of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty: ‘Any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements’. The two-year period for the withdrawal negotiations may only be extended with the unanimous agreement of the EU27 (union members, excluding the UK).
- 2.
The transition deal holds that Northern Ireland will effectively stay in parts of the Single Market and the Customs Union in the absence of other solutions to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland. This so-called backstop option for Northern Ireland was a key part of the December 2017 Phase One agreement with the UK and must continue to apply ‘unless and until another solution is found’.
- 3.
Note that the transition deal is dependent on the UK and the EU finalising the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement by October 2018.
- 4.
At the time of writing in March 2018, the Labour Party’s official policy position is to stay in a customs union arrangement with the EU to avoid any major trade disruptions. There are also cross-party initiatives in the House of Commons and the House of Lords to mandate the UK Government to seek, as part of its withdrawal negotiations, a customs union arrangement with the EU.
- 5.
There are 34 regulatory agencies that the UK will either need to stay within—and this could be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice—or replicate (Fraser 2017).
- 6.
At the time of writing, the UK as an existing EU member state had successfully marshalled a concerted international diplomatic response to Russia following the Salisbury nerve agent attack in March 2018.
References
Baldwin, Richard, Paul Collier, and Anthony Venables. 2017. Post-Brexit Trade and Development Policy. Policy Insight No 88, March. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Bandele, Olayinka, and Rashmi Banga. 2017. Brexit: Challenges and Opportunities for Jamaica and Other CARIFORUM Countries. Trade Competitiveness Briefing Paper 3. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
Carney, Mark. 2017. [De]Globalisation and Inflation. Speech given by the Governor of the Bank of England to the 2017 IMF Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, September 18. At: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2017/speech996.pdf. Accessed 26 Mar 2018.
Commonwealth Secretariat. 2016a. Brexit: Its Implications and Potential for the Commonwealth. Commonwealth Discussion Note. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
———. 2016b. Brexit and Commonwealth trade. Commonwealth Trade Policy Briefing, November. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
———. 2018. Strengthening the Commonwealth Advantage. Trade, Technology, Governance. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
Department for International Development (DFID). 2017. Economic Development Strategy: Prosperity, Poverty and Meeting Global Challenges. London: DFID.
Department for International Trade (DIT). 2017. Preparing for our Future UK Trade Policy. London: UK Government.
Dhingra, Swati, and Nikhil Datta. 2017. How Not to Do Trade Deals. London Review of Books 39 (18), September. At: https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-dhingra/how-not-to-do-trade-deals. Accessed 18 Mar 2018.
Dhingra, Swati, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, and John Van Reenen. 2016. The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards. London: Centre for Economic Performance.
Ebell, Monique. 2016. Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade. National Institute Economic Review 238: R31–R42.
Fraser, Simon. 2017. Global Britain. Bracing Ourselves for Brexit. The World Today, April and May. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Global News Matters Caribbean Research. 2016. Brexit Implications for the Caribbean – An Interview with Leading Caribbean Economist Marla Durkharan, June 30. At: http://caricom.org/brexit-implications-for-the-caribbean-an-interview-with-leading-caribbean-economist-marla-dukharan. Accessed 18 Mar 2018.
Grey, Christopher. 2018. A Preview of the Geo-political Costs of Brexit. The Brexit Blog, March 16. At: http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/a-preview-of-geo-political-costs-of.html. Accessed 25 Apr 2018.
Holmes, Peter, and Michael Gasiorek. 2017. Grandfathering Free Trade Agreements and Rules of Origin: What Might Appear Bilateral Is in Fact Trilateral! UK Trade Policy Observatory, September 27. At: https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2017/09/27/grandfathering-ftas-and-roos/. Accessed 19 Feb 2018.
Hove, Seedwell, and Jeremy Wakeford. 2016. Potential Implications of Brexit for African Economies. Opinion Paper 2016/02.
Jones, Emily, and Conrad Copeland, eds. 2017. Making UK Trade Work for Development post-Brexit. Workshop report. At: https://www.geg.ox.ac.uk/sites/geg/files/Making%20UK%20trade%20work%20for%20development%20post-brexit.pdf. Accessed 19 Feb 2018.
Lewis, Grant, and Samuel Lowe. 2017. Can Global Britain Defy Gravity? At: https://medium.com/@SamuelMarcLowe/can-global-britain-defy-gravity-18df4e9f4f7f. Accessed 19 Feb 2018.
McClean, Paul. 2017. After Brexit: The UK Will Need to Renegotiate at Least 759 Treaties. Financial Times, May 30. At: https://www.ft.com/content/f1435a8e-372b-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e?mhq5j=e7. Accessed 30 Sept 2017.
Mendez-Parra, M., and Dirk Willem te Velde. 2017. Aid, Exports and Employment in the UK. ODI Briefing Note, May. At: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/11521.pdf. Accessed 18 Mar 2018.
Mendez-Parra, Max, P. Papadavid, and Dirk Willem te Velde. 2016a. Brexit and Development: How Will Developing Countries Be Affected? Briefing Paper, July. London: ODI. At: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/10685.pdf. Accessed 30 Sept 2017.
Mendez-Parra, Max, Dirk Willem te Velde, and L. Alan Winters, eds. 2016b. The Impact of the UK’s post-Brexit Trade Policy on Development. An Essay Series. London: ODI.
Mendez-Parra, Max, Dirk Willem te Velde and Jane Kennan. 2017. Post-Brexit Trade Policy and Development. Current Developments; New Directions? ODI Policy Briefing. London: ODI.
Narlikar, Amrita. 2018. A Trade War on the Poor. How a Collapse of the WTO Would Hurt the Worst Off. Foreign Affairs, March 5. At: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-03-05/trade-war-poor. Accessed 26 Mar 2018.
Open Britain. 2018. New Research – Trade Deals with Five Key Countries Could Take 26 Years to Negotiate, April 3. At: https://www.open-britain.co.uk/new_research_trade_deals_with_five_key_countries_could_take_26_years_to_negotiate. Accessed 4 Apr 2018.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2017. OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom. Paris: OECD.
Sapir, André, Dirk Schoenmaker, and Nicolas Véron. 2017. Making the Best of Brexit for the EU27 Financial System. Policy Brief 2017/01, Bruegel.
Stevens, Christopher, and Jane Kennan. 2016. Trade Implications of Brexit for Commonwealth Developing Countries. Commonwealth Trade Hot Topic Issue 133, August. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
Traidcraft Exchange. 2017. How Should the UK Trade with Developing Countries After Brexit? Traidcraft in Depth Blog, February. London: Traidcraft Exchange. At: https://traidcraftindepth.org/2017/02/27/how-should-the-uk-trade-with-developing-countries-after-brexit/. Accessed 22 Mar 2018.
Vickers, Brendan. 2017. A Handbook on Regional Integration in Africa: Towards Agenda 2063. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
Vickers, Brendan, and Sangeeta Khorana, eds. 2018. Navigating Uncertainty. Towards a post-Brexit Trade and Development Agenda. Economic Paper 97. London: Commonwealth Secretariat.
Whyman, Philip, and Alina Petrescu. 2017. The Economics of Brexit: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the UK’s Economic Relationship with the EU. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.
World Bank. 2016. Trade and Investment Implications of Brexit. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
Z/Yen. 2018. The Global Financial Centres Index 23. London. At: http://www.longfinance.net/Publications/GFCI23.pdf. Accessed 23 Apr 2018.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2019 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Vickers, B. (2019). Implications of Brexit. In: Shaw, T.M., Mahrenbach, L.C., Modi, R., Yi-chong, X. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary International Political Economy. Palgrave Handbooks in IPE. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-45443-0_18
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-45443-0_18
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-137-45442-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-45443-0
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)