Causes of interannual global temperature variations over the period since 1861

  • P. D. Jones
  • P. M. Kelly
Observational Studies
Part of the Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences book series (LNEARTH, volume 16)


Large explosive volcanic eruptions and the ENSO phenomenon have been shown to have similar effects, of the order of 0.1 to 0.2°C, on hemispheric temperature. The effects are relatively short-lived. The duration of the maximum effect is of the order of 6 months and it occurs at some time within the two years immediately after the volcano or warm or cold event. These two factors are responsible for between 30 and 50% of the interannual, high frequency variability in the hemispheric temperature records.


Southern Hemisphere Southern Oscillation Index Cold Event Hemispheric Temperature Monthly Weather Review 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Barnett, T. P., 1984: Long term trends in surface temperature over the ocean. Monthly Weather Review 112, 303–312.Google Scholar
  2. Berlage, H.P., 1957: Fluctuations in the general atmospheric circulation of more than one year; their nature and prognostic value. KNMI Meded. Verh 69.Google Scholar
  3. Bradley, R.S., 1987: The explosive volcanic eruption record in Northern Hemisphere continental temperature records. Climatic Change (submitted).Google Scholar
  4. Bradley, R.S., Kelly, P.M., Jones, P.D., Diaz, H.F. and Goodess, C., 1985: A climatic data bank for the Northern Hemisphere, 1851–1980, DoE Tech. Rep. No. TR017, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Washington, D.C. 335 pp.Google Scholar
  5. Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., Kiladis, G. and Eischeid, J.K., 1987: ENSO Signal in continental temperature and precipitation records. Nature (submitted).Google Scholar
  6. Conrad, V. and Pollak, L.D., 1962: Methods in Climatology, Harvard University Press, 459 pp.Google Scholar
  7. Goodess, C. and Kelly, P.M., 1987: Historical marine air temperature and sea surface temperature data. A review of the data quality problem and implications for the calculation of global averages. DoE Tech. Rep., U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division.Google Scholar
  8. Jones, P.D., Raper, S.C.B., Santer, B.D., Cherry, B.S.G., Goodess, C., Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L., 1985: A grid point surface air temperature data set for the Northern Hemisphere, 1851–1984. DoE Tech. Rep. TR022. U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Washington, D.C. 251 pp.Google Scholar
  9. Jones, P.D., Raper, S.C.B., Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L., 1986a: Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures: 1851–1984. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 25, 161–179.Google Scholar
  10. Jones, P.D., Raper, S.C.B., Cherry, B.S.G., Goodess, C. and Wigley, T.M.L., 1986b: A grid point surface air temperature data set for the Southern Hemisphere, 1851–1984. DoE Tech. Rep. TR027. U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Washington, D.C. 73 pp.Google Scholar
  11. Jones, P.D., Raper, S.C.B. and Wigley, T.M.L., 1986c: Southern Hemisphere surface air temperatures: 1851–1984. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 25, 1213–1230.Google Scholar
  12. Jones, P.D., Wigley, T.M.L. and Wright, P.B., 1986d: Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984. Nature, 322, 430–434.Google Scholar
  13. Kelly, P.M. and Sear, C.B., 1984: Climatic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions. Nature, 311, 740–743.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Köppen, W., 1873: Über mehrjährige Perioden der Witterung, insbesondere über die 11-jährige Periode der Temperatur. Zeitschrift der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Meteorologie, 8, 241–248; 257–267.Google Scholar
  15. Köppen, W., 1914: Lufttemperaturen, Sonnenflecken und Vulkanausbrüche. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 31, 305–328.Google Scholar
  16. Lamb, H.H., 1970: Volcanic dust in the atmosphere, with a chronology and assessment of its meteorological significance. Phil. Trans. of the Royal Society of London, 266A, 425–533.Google Scholar
  17. Quinn, W.H., Zopf, D.O., Short, K.S. and Kuo Yang, R.T.W., 1978: Historical trends and statistics of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño and Indonesian droughts. Fisheries Bulletin, 76, 663–678.Google Scholar
  18. Rasmussen, E.M. and Carpenter, T.H., 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Monthly Weather Review, 110, 354–384.Google Scholar
  19. Reynolds, R.W. and Gemmill, W.H., 1984: An objective global monthly mean sea surface temperature analysis. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter, 23, 4–5.Google Scholar
  20. Ropelewski, C.F. and Jones, P.D., 1987: An extension of the Southern Oscillation Index. Monthly Weather Review (in press).Google Scholar
  21. Sear, C.B., Kelly, P.M., Jones, P.D. and Goodess, C.M., 1987: On the response of global surface air temperatures to major volcanic eruptions. Nature, (submitted).Google Scholar
  22. Simkin, T. et al., 1981: Volcanoes of the World. Hutchinson Ross, Stroudsberg.Google Scholar
  23. Slutz, R.J., Lubker, S.J., Hiscox, J.D., Woodruff, S.D., Jenne, R.L., Joseph, D.H., Steurer, P.M. and Elms, J.D., 1985: Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set Release 1 NOAA, Environmental Research Laboratories, Boulder, Colorado. 268 pp.Google Scholar
  24. Walker, G.T. and Bliss, E.W., 1932: World Weather V Memoris of the Royal Meteorological Society IV (36), 53–84.Google Scholar
  25. Wigley, T.M.L., Angell, J.K. and Jones, P.D., 1985: Analysis of the temperature record. In: M.C. MacCracken and F.M. Luther (Eds.), Detecting the effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2. U.S. Dept. of Energy Carbon Dioxide Research Division, pp. 55–90.Google Scholar
  26. Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M., 1986: Empirical Climate studies: warm world scenarios and the detection of climatic change induced by radiatively active gases. In: B. Bolin, J. Jäger, B.R. Döös and R.A. Warrick (Eds.). The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change and Ecosystems. SCOPE 29, Wiley, pp. 271–322.Google Scholar
  27. World Meteorological Organization, 1985: The Global Climate System: A critical review of the climate system during 1982–84. World Climate Data Programme.Google Scholar
  28. Woodruff, S.D., 1986: Editor, Proceedings of a COADS workshop, Boulder, Colorado, January 22–24, 1986. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL ESG-23, 218 pp.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 1988

Authors and Affiliations

  • P. D. Jones
    • 1
  • P. M. Kelly
    • 1
  1. 1.Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUnited Kingdom

Personalised recommendations