Abstract
This paper investigates the impacts of climatic variations on coniferous ecosystems using a physiologically-based model. The investigation is based on the assumption that the overall reaction of a forest to a new combination of climatic influences can only be assessed from the bottom upwards (given that the underlying processes are sufficiently understood). Thus, a model is used that considers direct and indirect effects of environmental changes.
For the investigation of responses to different kinds of climatic variations, we used a physiology-based model of the soil-vegetation complex with linked balances of carbon, water and nitrogen. The model was developed to reproduce detailed physiological, soil-physical and chemical measurements in Pinus sylvestris L. plantations in eastern Germany. A special feature of the model is that allocation and litterfall processes are modelled as a function of plant carbon requirements rather than being fixed ratios or empirical functions of specific environmental conditions. Thus, seasonal tree responses, e.g. increased root growth or foliage mortality in response to drought, are also considered.
The model is initialised with measured stand and soil conditions. Tree development is simulated under 24 different climatic scenarios. The scenarios are defined by systematically modifying observed climatic conditions with respect to either mean temperature or precipitation (+/−2 K and +/−30 %, respectively), and superimposing a set of redistributed climatic parameters within the year (seasonal increase or decrease as above without changing the average conditions). The actual simulation of the corresponding weather uses a climate disaggregation scheme.
The results of the simulation are: (1) The seasonal shifts in temperature conditions have a greater impact on water and carbon balance than the changes in annual averages at the investigated sites; (2) precipitation changes are most effective if they occur in the dry season; (3) stem growth responds more than net primary production; and (4) the intensity of the impacts is reversibly related to the soil water capacity at the sites. We conclude that potential changes in the seasonal distribution of climatic variables need to be considered if climate impacts on forests are being investigated.
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Grote, R., Bürger, G., Suckow, F. (1998). Simulated impacts of mean vs. intra-snnual climate changes on forests. In: Beniston, M., Innes, J.L. (eds) The Impacts of Climate Variability on Forests. Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, vol 74. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0009778
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0009778
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